TS Lombard首席经济学家Stephen Blitz认为，美联储重启资产负债表购买操作，实质是为财政部支出提供融资保障，两大机构资产负债表实正走 向"合并"。随着Kevin Hassett等潜在继任者进入美联储，贝森特实际上将成为他的"老板"，财政部将主导融资策略，即通过短端注入流动性压低融资 成本，而这种廉价资金策略将推高2026年通胀。 周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资 产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法 是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现 利率波动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这种架构下，未来的政策协调将 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in the relationship between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, suggesting a de facto "merger" of their balance sheets, with Treasury Secretary Yellen playing a pivotal role as an "shadow Fed Chair" [1][4] - The Federal Reserve plans to restart asset purchases, beginning with $40 billion in Treasury bills in January, which is seen as a commitment to finance Treasury expenditures and stabilize market interest rates [1][3] - This new framework indicates that the market's ability to signal government spending limits through interest rates will be diminished, leading to a tighter coordination of policies between the Treasury and the Fed [4][5] Treasury and Federal Reserve Merger - The Federal Reserve's decision to resume bond purchases fundamentally alters traditional market dynamics, as it aims to set money market rates rather than manage them through open market operations [3] - The Fed's actions are intended to ensure that Treasury spending can be financed without causing interest rate "blockages," effectively merging the operational roles of the two institutions [4] New Power Structure - Should Kevin Hassett be confirmed as a potential Fed official, Secretary Yellen will effectively become his "boss," establishing a "single presidential authority" for daily communication and coordination [5] - The goal is to achieve low financing costs by injecting liquidity into the short end of the market, which is expected to contribute to rising inflation expectations by 2026 [5] Economic Outlook - The article highlights a concerning economic outlook, with recent labor data revisions indicating a downward trend in employment, suggesting a potential for further Fed rate cuts [7][8] - While short-term monetary easing is anticipated, long-term inflation risks remain, with fiscal policy expected to support economic activity and inflation potentially resurfacing in late 2026 or 2027 [8]

周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财 政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这 一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美 元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场 利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现利率波 动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这 种架构下，未来的政策协调将更加紧密，贝森特将拥有巨大的话语权。随着Kevin Hassett 等潜在继任者 可能进入美联储，一条通往白宫、经由贝森特运作的"直接汇报线"正在形成，这将使得财政部能够主导 融资策略，即通过向短端注入流动性来压低融资成本。 贝森特和特朗普所期望的是廉价的融资成本——即通过淹没短端市场并限制长端发行来实现。美联储宣 布购买短端资产正是为了配合 ...