Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at around 1.5% for the remainder of the year, indicating potential pressure on the labor market without Federal Reserve support [1] Economic Growth - Jefferson expects the U.S. economy to grow at approximately 1.5% for the rest of the year [1] - He supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the September meeting to balance the risks of inflation above target and increasing threats to the labor market [1] Labor Market - The labor market is showing signs of softening, suggesting it may face pressure without adequate support [1] Inflation Outlook - Jefferson predicts that inflation will begin to decline towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target level after this year [1] Policy Uncertainty - The impacts of the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and other policies are still evolving, leading to particularly high uncertainty in baseline forecasts [1] - Although tariffs have a lower impact on inflation and other economic aspects than some economists expected, Jefferson believes these effects will become more apparent in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen against the US dollar in April have drawn market attention, primarily influenced by the US government's trade policies and economic data, leading to a historical high in net long positions for the yen [1][3][8]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - In April, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar fluctuated from approximately 149 yen to 139 yen, a movement of nearly 10 yen [1][8]. - As of May 1, the yen was trading around 143 yen to the dollar, showing a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - Leveraged funds and asset management firms have significantly increased their net long positions in the yen, reaching the highest level since data collection began in 1992 [1][3]. - As of April 22, speculative institutions held a net long position of approximately $157 billion in yen, marking a continuous increase over three weeks [3]. Impact of US Policies - The market is reacting to the US government's potential influence on the dollar's value, with concerns about the administration's desire to weaken the dollar [2][5]. - The US's announcement of high tariffs on trade partners has led to a temporary strengthening of the yen, which later reversed due to policy shifts from the Trump administration [6][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the yen has appreciated, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain, with potential volatility if the US reintroduces pressure on Japan regarding currency valuation [9][12]. - The current environment indicates a structural demand for selling yen, which could limit the currency's rebound potential [13].

美国财长贝森特：欧洲在增加财政和国防支出方面的初步行动，正是特朗普政府政策奏效的证明。 ...