Report Title - "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.08.04" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - Short - term soda ash futures prices may fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the new production capacity, there is still pressure on the supply - demand balance, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be considered when macro disturbances weaken [5] Glass - Glass futures prices may continue to operate in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies and cold repair of production lines [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View Summary Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), with ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week) and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week). Weekly output is 69.98 tons (down 2.40 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 30.11 tons (down 1.38 tons) and heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons (down 1.02 tons) [5][25][33] - Demand: Apparent demand is 76.86 tons (up 0.38 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 35.03 tons (down 0.54 tons) and heavy soda ash at 41.83 tons (up 0.92 tons) [5] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [5] Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), with 222 production lines in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [6][44] - Inventory: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [6][48] - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days (up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year) [6][48] 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - Soda ash: In central China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 70 yuan/ton. In northern China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11] - Futures: As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is 0 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the basis of glass is - 29 yuan/ton (up 202 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 31, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 78 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 107 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 130 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19] 2.2 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash: With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week), and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week) [25][33] - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [44] 2.3 Fundamental - Inventory - Soda ash: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [37] - Glass: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the supply - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, the demand is expected to decline, the terminal has sufficient inventory and poor finished - product profits. After the positive feedback sentiment in the market subsides, maintain a bearish view. In the short term, prevent risks and mainly wait and see [7][9]. - For the glass market, the supply side has a policy - favorable orientation but it has not yet affected the industry. The market sentiment has been boosted in the short term, but the valuation is still low. Hold a long - position at a low level, and leave the market flexibly if the sentiment weakens [153][155]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - **Supply**: The current total production is 73.32 million tons, with heavy - quality production at 41.47 million tons and light - quality production at 31.85 million tons. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the production is expected to increase in the future. The import is 0.03 million tons, and the export is 4.1 million tons [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - quality soda ash consumption is 33.22 million tons, and the light - quality soda ash apparent demand is 30.02 million tons. The overall apparent demand is 69.10 million tons, with a decreasing trend in the future [7]. - **Inventory**: The alkali - factory inventory is 190.56 million tons, and the social inventory is 24.66 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1285 yuan, with a profit of - 85 yuan; the combined - soda process cost is 1133 yuan, with a profit of 17 yuan [7]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, export, and apparent demand of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][18][20]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of soda ash contracts, inter - delivery spread of soda ash contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [23][28][33][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - The current price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe area is 1206 yuan, showing a downward trend compared with last week and last year. The report also provides price data for different regions and the price difference between heavy - and light - quality soda ash [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Enterprise Operation**: Some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua, Anhui Debang are in the process of maintenance or have low - load operation, and some enterprises like Fengcheng Yanhua and Suyan Jingshen have planned maintenance [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic operating rate is 84.1%, showing an upward trend compared with last week [77]. - **Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of domestic heavy - and light - quality soda ash [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: It includes the cost and profit data of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, as well as the price of related products such as synthetic ammonia [87][91][99]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash**: It is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The report provides historical data on the daily melting volume and demand [121][122][124]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The report provides historical data on the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy - quality, light - quality, and overall soda ash [129][130][131]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: It provides historical price data of photovoltaic glass with different specifications [133][134][135]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current enterprise inventory is 190.56 million tons, with an increasing trend. The report also provides inventory data for different regions [139][140][148]. Glass Market 3.1 Glass Market Overview - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of float glass is 157,825 tons, and the weekly production is 110.48 million tons. It is expected to increase slightly in the future [153]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 121.71 million tons, and the market sentiment has been boosted recently [153]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory is 324.70 million tons, showing a downward trend [153]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production lines such as natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke vary. Some production lines are in a loss state [153]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, and export of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 [160][162][165]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of glass contracts, inter - delivery spread of glass contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [168][173][177][182]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - The report provides price data of float glass with different specifications in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc [190][191][193]. 3.5 Glass Supply - **Profit of Float Glass**: The profit of coal - gas enterprises, petroleum - coke enterprises, and natural - gas enterprises varies. The profit of coal - gas enterprises is relatively good, while that of natural - gas enterprises is in a loss state [229].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated significantly and weakened. The closing price of the main contract FG2509 decreased by 4.44% compared to the previous week, reaching 1034 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass slabs in Hebei Shahe dropped by 3.78% to 1120 yuan/ton. The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The production profit feedback is obvious, and the glass output has dropped to a historical low. However, the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, and the inventory of glass enterprises has returned to accumulation. Considering these factors, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1082 yuan/ton to 1034 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.44%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1164 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.78%. The main basis increased from 82 yuan/ton to 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.88% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass slabs in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - The profit of coal - fired production lines has rebounded, the loss of natural - gas production lines has narrowed, and the profit of petroleum - coke production lines has turned negative [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75.24%. The daily melting volume is 155,800 tons, and the supply is at a historical low [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low [3][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - As of May 8th, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.56 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.96% compared to the previous week, and the inventory has returned to accumulation [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Export | Import | Net Import | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734% | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5088 | 5091 | - 3 | - 3.50% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.284% | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.24% | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | 91 | - 0.56% | - 1.54% | - 0.834% | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934% | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [49] Influence Factors Summary - **Liberal Factors**: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has been continuously decreasing to a historical low [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low, the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventory. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [7]. - **Risk Points**: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [7].