Report Title - "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.08.04" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - Short - term soda ash futures prices may fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the new production capacity, there is still pressure on the supply - demand balance, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be considered when macro disturbances weaken [5] Glass - Glass futures prices may continue to operate in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies and cold repair of production lines [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View Summary Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), with ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week) and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week). Weekly output is 69.98 tons (down 2.40 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 30.11 tons (down 1.38 tons) and heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons (down 1.02 tons) [5][25][33] - Demand: Apparent demand is 76.86 tons (up 0.38 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 35.03 tons (down 0.54 tons) and heavy soda ash at 41.83 tons (up 0.92 tons) [5] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [5] Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), with 222 production lines in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [6][44] - Inventory: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [6][48] - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days (up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year) [6][48] 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - Soda ash: In central China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 70 yuan/ton. In northern China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11] - Futures: As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is 0 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the basis of glass is - 29 yuan/ton (up 202 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 31, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 78 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 107 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 130 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19] 2.2 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash: With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week), and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week) [25][33] - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [44] 2.3 Fundamental - Inventory - Soda ash: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [37] - Glass: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the supply - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, the demand is expected to decline, the terminal has sufficient inventory and poor finished - product profits. After the positive feedback sentiment in the market subsides, maintain a bearish view. In the short term, prevent risks and mainly wait and see [7][9]. - For the glass market, the supply side has a policy - favorable orientation but it has not yet affected the industry. The market sentiment has been boosted in the short term, but the valuation is still low. Hold a long - position at a low level, and leave the market flexibly if the sentiment weakens [153][155]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - **Supply**: The current total production is 73.32 million tons, with heavy - quality production at 41.47 million tons and light - quality production at 31.85 million tons. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the production is expected to increase in the future. The import is 0.03 million tons, and the export is 4.1 million tons [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - quality soda ash consumption is 33.22 million tons, and the light - quality soda ash apparent demand is 30.02 million tons. The overall apparent demand is 69.10 million tons, with a decreasing trend in the future [7]. - **Inventory**: The alkali - factory inventory is 190.56 million tons, and the social inventory is 24.66 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1285 yuan, with a profit of - 85 yuan; the combined - soda process cost is 1133 yuan, with a profit of 17 yuan [7]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, export, and apparent demand of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][18][20]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of soda ash contracts, inter - delivery spread of soda ash contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [23][28][33][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - The current price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe area is 1206 yuan, showing a downward trend compared with last week and last year. The report also provides price data for different regions and the price difference between heavy - and light - quality soda ash [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Enterprise Operation**: Some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua, Anhui Debang are in the process of maintenance or have low - load operation, and some enterprises like Fengcheng Yanhua and Suyan Jingshen have planned maintenance [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic operating rate is 84.1%, showing an upward trend compared with last week [77]. - **Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of domestic heavy - and light - quality soda ash [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: It includes the cost and profit data of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, as well as the price of related products such as synthetic ammonia [87][91][99]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash**: It is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The report provides historical data on the daily melting volume and demand [121][122][124]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The report provides historical data on the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy - quality, light - quality, and overall soda ash [129][130][131]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: It provides historical price data of photovoltaic glass with different specifications [133][134][135]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current enterprise inventory is 190.56 million tons, with an increasing trend. The report also provides inventory data for different regions [139][140][148]. Glass Market 3.1 Glass Market Overview - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of float glass is 157,825 tons, and the weekly production is 110.48 million tons. It is expected to increase slightly in the future [153]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 121.71 million tons, and the market sentiment has been boosted recently [153]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory is 324.70 million tons, showing a downward trend [153]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production lines such as natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke vary. Some production lines are in a loss state [153]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, and export of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 [160][162][165]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of glass contracts, inter - delivery spread of glass contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [168][173][177][182]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - The report provides price data of float glass with different specifications in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc [190][191][193]. 3.5 Glass Supply - **Profit of Float Glass**: The profit of coal - gas enterprises, petroleum - coke enterprises, and natural - gas enterprises varies. The profit of coal - gas enterprises is relatively good, while that of natural - gas enterprises is in a loss state [229].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.5.6-5.9 每周观点 上周玻璃期货大幅震荡走弱，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周下跌4.44%报1034元/吨。 现货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1120元/吨，较前一周下跌3.78%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格回落，行业利润继续分化，目前天然气产线亏损收窄，行 业冷修产线高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产222条，开工率75.24%，日熔量15.58万 吨，供给处于历史低位。需求方面，季节性淡季来临，地产终端需求恢复缓慢，下游除 少数大型加工厂订单尚可外，多数下游订单不足，采购原片仅维持刚需，原片企业行业 库存目前正处于3 年内同期高位水平，加上随着梅雨季节到来，不排除企业为降库存进 一步下报价格。截止5月8日，全国浮法玻璃企业 ...