Report Title - "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.08.04" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - Short - term soda ash futures prices may fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the new production capacity, there is still pressure on the supply - demand balance, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be considered when macro disturbances weaken [5] Glass - Glass futures prices may continue to operate in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies and cold repair of production lines [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View Summary Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), with ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week) and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week). Weekly output is 69.98 tons (down 2.40 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 30.11 tons (down 1.38 tons) and heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons (down 1.02 tons) [5][25][33] - Demand: Apparent demand is 76.86 tons (up 0.38 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 35.03 tons (down 0.54 tons) and heavy soda ash at 41.83 tons (up 0.92 tons) [5] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [5] Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), with 222 production lines in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [6][44] - Inventory: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [6][48] - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days (up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year) [6][48] 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - Soda ash: In central China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 70 yuan/ton. In northern China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11] - Futures: As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is 0 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the basis of glass is - 29 yuan/ton (up 202 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 31, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 78 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 107 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 130 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19] 2.2 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash: With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week), and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week) [25][33] - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [44] 2.3 Fundamental - Inventory - Soda ash: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [37] - Glass: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the supply - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, the demand is expected to decline, the terminal has sufficient inventory and poor finished - product profits. After the positive feedback sentiment in the market subsides, maintain a bearish view. In the short term, prevent risks and mainly wait and see [7][9]. - For the glass market, the supply side has a policy - favorable orientation but it has not yet affected the industry. The market sentiment has been boosted in the short term, but the valuation is still low. Hold a long - position at a low level, and leave the market flexibly if the sentiment weakens [153][155]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - **Supply**: The current total production is 73.32 million tons, with heavy - quality production at 41.47 million tons and light - quality production at 31.85 million tons. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the production is expected to increase in the future. The import is 0.03 million tons, and the export is 4.1 million tons [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - quality soda ash consumption is 33.22 million tons, and the light - quality soda ash apparent demand is 30.02 million tons. The overall apparent demand is 69.10 million tons, with a decreasing trend in the future [7]. - **Inventory**: The alkali - factory inventory is 190.56 million tons, and the social inventory is 24.66 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1285 yuan, with a profit of - 85 yuan; the combined - soda process cost is 1133 yuan, with a profit of 17 yuan [7]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, export, and apparent demand of soda ash from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][18][20]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of soda ash contracts, inter - delivery spread of soda ash contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [23][28][33][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - The current price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Shahe area is 1206 yuan, showing a downward trend compared with last week and last year. The report also provides price data for different regions and the price difference between heavy - and light - quality soda ash [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Enterprise Operation**: Some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua, Anhui Debang are in the process of maintenance or have low - load operation, and some enterprises like Fengcheng Yanhua and Suyan Jingshen have planned maintenance [76]. - **Operating Rate**: The current domestic operating rate is 84.1%, showing an upward trend compared with last week [77]. - **Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of domestic heavy - and light - quality soda ash [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: It includes the cost and profit data of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, as well as the price of related products such as synthetic ammonia [87][91][99]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash**: It is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The report provides historical data on the daily melting volume and demand [121][122][124]. - **Weekly Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The report provides historical data on the weekly consumption and sales - to - production ratio of heavy - quality, light - quality, and overall soda ash [129][130][131]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Price**: It provides historical price data of photovoltaic glass with different specifications [133][134][135]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current enterprise inventory is 190.56 million tons, with an increasing trend. The report also provides inventory data for different regions [139][140][148]. Glass Market 3.1 Glass Market Overview - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of float glass is 157,825 tons, and the weekly production is 110.48 million tons. It is expected to increase slightly in the future [153]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 121.71 million tons, and the market sentiment has been boosted recently [153]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory is 324.70 million tons, showing a downward trend [153]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production lines such as natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke vary. Some production lines are in a loss state [153]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The report provides historical data on monthly production, import, and export of flat glass from 2020 - 2025 [160][162][165]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - It includes the comparison of spot - futures prices, basis of glass contracts, inter - delivery spread of glass contracts, and glass - soda ash contract/spot spread [168][173][177][182]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - The report provides price data of float glass with different specifications in different regions, such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc [190][191][193]. 3.5 Glass Supply - **Profit of Float Glass**: The profit of coal - gas enterprises, petroleum - coke enterprises, and natural - gas enterprises varies. The profit of coal - gas enterprises is relatively good, while that of natural - gas enterprises is in a loss state [229].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance has started sporadically, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but is still at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, the basis is 29 yuan, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry's output at a historical high; the cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,196 yuan/ton | 1,223 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Current Value | 1,181 yuan/ton | 1,210 yuan/ton | 29 yuan | | Change Rate | - 1.25% | - 1.06% | 7.41% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy - alkali combined - alkali method in East China is - 42 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - alkali ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.21%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 716,800 tons, including 392,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production - launch of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 94.39% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.15% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7669 million tons, including 961,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level and stabilized, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory, although declining, remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and stabilized. Downstream float and photovoltaic glass daily melting amounts are stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but remains at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,244 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,208 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, with futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.627 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factors - Bullish: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - Bearish: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting amount continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,202 yuan/ton | 1,242 yuan/ton | 40 yuan | | Current Value | 1,208 yuan/ton | 1,244 yuan/ton | 36 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.50% | 0.16% | - 10.00% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of the combined - soda method for heavy soda in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production of soda ash is 704,100 tons, including 382,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting amount of national float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting amount in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.627 million tons, including 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high compared to the same period [33]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming. Supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has declined but is still at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,203 yuan/ton, and the basis is 27 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot. It is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic soda ash plant inventory is 162.70 million tons, an increase of 0.17% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. It is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,225 yuan/ton | 1,230 yuan/ton | 5 yuan | | Current Value | 1,203 yuan/ton | 1,230 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Increase/Decrease | - 1.80% | 0.00% | 440.00% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 12.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 78.52%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize. The weekly output of soda ash is 685,100 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 369,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 billion tons, 1.8 billion tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with an actual production of 1 billion tons [22]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [25]. - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,300 tons, and the operating rate of 75.73% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total domestic soda ash plant inventory is 162.70 million tons, of which the heavy soda ash inventory is 83.70 million tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to be weak, with the main contract SA2509 closing 4.31% lower than the previous week at 1,199 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week [2]. - The decline in soda ash supply has slowed down, and demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved, with supply at a high level and declining, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory still at a high level in the same period [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Weekly Market Conditions - Futures: The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,199 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week. The main basis was 36 yuan/ton, down 23.40% [2][9]. Supply - Side Analysis - Production: Although some enterprises will reduce production next week, some previously shut - down plants will resume. In June, there are fewer maintenance enterprises, and supply is expected to increase slightly to 690,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79% [3]. - Capacity Changes: Since 2023, soda ash capacity has expanded significantly. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [8][27]. Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Demand: The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is general. The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,800 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Purchases are mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and overall consumption fluctuates little [3]. - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [30]. Inventory Analysis - As of May 29, the total inventory of soda ash in domestic factories was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% from the previous week, but still at a high level in the same period [3]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and inventory is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to weaken in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 2.79% compared to the previous week, reaching 1253 yuan/ton. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the near term, while demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average with low raw material reserve intention. With supply declining from a high level and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1289 yuan/ton to 1253 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1320 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The main basis increased by 51.61% from 31 yuan/ton to 47 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market Conditions - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the dual - alkali process in East China was 188 yuan/ton, while the profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 78.63% and is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 36 tons, declining from a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 54.23% [21][23][26]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons. The planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [27]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 105.30% [30]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [33][36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, including 84.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level for the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 1.23% compared to the previous week, reaching 1289 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, while the demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The downstream demand for float and photovoltaic glass is average, with downstream enterprises replenishing inventory as needed and having low intention to stockpile raw materials. The inventory is still at a historically high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Conditions of Soda Ash Futures and Spot Goods - The closing price of the main futures contract SA2509 was 1289 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The main basis increased by 55% to 31 yuan/ton [2][9]. Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production Profit**: The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China was 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historically low level [18]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 80.27%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly production volume was 67.77 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 36.90 tons, and the production volume is falling from a historical high [21][23]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.42% [30]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production recovered to 9.1 tons, and the production volume stabilized [33][36]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 171.20 tons, with heavy soda ash inventory at 88.33 tons, and the inventory is at a historically high level in the same period [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate from 2017 to 2024E [40]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].