产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供给持续收缩， 年末行情平淡 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/01/04 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 图1：玻璃期现价差（元/吨） 图2：玻璃主力合约基差（元/吨） 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 基差（右轴） 玻璃主力合约 华北5mm大板 -400 -200 0 200 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For soda ash, supply pressure remains high despite a decline in the industry's operating rate due to some enterprises' maintenance plans, as new capacity from companies like Yuanxing Energy may be released at any time. Demand from the glass industry is weak, with float glass affected by the sluggish real - estate sector and the photovoltaic industry facing over - capacity issues. Other downstream industries have limited demand. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, some production lines are resuming production, and there are plans for more ignitions, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to the poor real - estate situation and the traditional off - season. However, prices may have a technical rebound near the cost line of some low - cost production lines. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 206 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. Soda ash main contract open interest is 1561375 lots, up 2314 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1524157 lots, up 42066 lots [2]. - Soda ash's top 20 net open interest is - 267397 lots, up 2876 lots; glass's top 20 net open interest is - 225883 lots, down 68587 lots. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1691 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between September and January contracts of soda ash is 8 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is - 59 yuan, down 6 yuan. Soda ash basis is 19 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; glass basis is 49 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash price is 1365 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large - plate price is 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large - plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, up 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 160.23 million tons, down 7.45 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6776.9 million weight boxes, down 31.3 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate new construction area cumulative value is 17835.84 million square meters, up 4839.38 million square meters; real - estate completion area cumulative value is 15647.85 million square meters, up 2587.58 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The China - EU semiconductor upstream and downstream enterprise symposium was held in Beijing. As of the end of April, the national local government debt balance was 506931 billion yuan. From January to April, state - owned enterprises' total revenue was 262755.0 billion yuan, the same as last year, and the total profit was 13491.4 billion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year. The National Data Bureau is formulating policies to cultivate the national integrated data market [2].