需求方面，建信期货分析称，需求端整体继续回落。后续随着行业检修逐步收尾，市场供应预计将稳步 回升，库存端仍将面临阶段性累积压力。下游浮法玻璃供需基本面依旧偏弱，终端房地产行业尚未出现 实质性回暖迹象。 后市来看，宁证期货表示，浮法玻璃开工小幅下降，库存下降，华东市场变化不大，企业稳价出货为 主，多数走货尚可，中下游拿货积极性一般，操作维持刚需。国内纯碱市场走势一般，价格弱稳调整， 供应高位徘徊，下游需求表现不温不火，按需补库为主。纯碱厂家库存高位持续下降，现货市场表现一 般，预计短期震荡略偏强。 1月7日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，纯碱期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报1243.00 元/吨，大幅上涨5.16%。 现货方面，据光大期货介绍，现货厂家报价维持稳定，贸易商环节报价小幅回升，昨日沙河地区重碱送 到价格1150元/吨，日环比涨13元/吨。 基本面来看，迈科期货指出，现货价格走弱，碱厂检修意愿增加，纯碱产量环比下滑；新产能投产背景 下，长期供给压力较大。当前价格处于低位，碱厂亏损情况下，检修意愿较强，短期产量承压，后续重 点关注供应情况。 ...

产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供给持续收缩， 年末行情平淡 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/01/04 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 图1：玻璃期现价差（元/吨） 图2：玻璃主力合约基差（元/吨） 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 基差（右轴） 玻璃主力合约 华北5mm大板 -400 -200 0 200 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding steady across various regions, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a challenging environment for producers [2][5]. Price Analysis - Light soda ash prices in North China are maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1200-1320 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash ranges from 1260-1370 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is priced at 1340-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash is 1155.71, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1211.43, remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side: Ningxia Risheng's soda ash facility is undergoing maintenance, and Lianyungang Debang's facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall market operations have slightly decreased [2]. - Demand side: Downstream enterprises are maintaining low inventory levels and are purchasing only as needed, leading to weak and stable demand [2]. Futures Market - On November 4, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1199 CNY/ton and closed at 1189 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.74%. The total open interest increased by 40,018 contracts [5]. - The soda ash futures market is characterized by low-level fluctuations, with a focus returning to fundamental supply and demand conditions [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations due to mixed factors, with weak demand suppressing prices while strong cost support provides a floor [6]. Future attention should be directed towards changes in production facilities and downstream purchasing patterns [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For soda ash, supply pressure remains high despite a decline in the industry's operating rate due to some enterprises' maintenance plans, as new capacity from companies like Yuanxing Energy may be released at any time. Demand from the glass industry is weak, with float glass affected by the sluggish real - estate sector and the photovoltaic industry facing over - capacity issues. Other downstream industries have limited demand. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies [2]. - For glass, some production lines are resuming production, and there are plans for more ignitions, increasing supply pressure. Demand is weak due to the poor real - estate situation and the traditional off - season. However, prices may have a technical rebound near the cost line of some low - cost production lines. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1215 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1009 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 206 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. Soda ash main contract open interest is 1561375 lots, up 2314 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1524157 lots, up 42066 lots [2]. - Soda ash's top 20 net open interest is - 267397 lots, up 2876 lots; glass's top 20 net open interest is - 225883 lots, down 68587 lots. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1691 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between September and January contracts of soda ash is 8 yuan, down 11 yuan; that of glass is - 59 yuan, down 6 yuan. Soda ash basis is 19 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; glass basis is 49 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. East China light soda ash price is 1365 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large - plate price is 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large - plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, up 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 160.23 million tons, down 7.45 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6776.9 million weight boxes, down 31.3 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate new construction area cumulative value is 17835.84 million square meters, up 4839.38 million square meters; real - estate completion area cumulative value is 15647.85 million square meters, up 2587.58 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The China - EU semiconductor upstream and downstream enterprise symposium was held in Beijing. As of the end of April, the national local government debt balance was 506931 billion yuan. From January to April, state - owned enterprises' total revenue was 262755.0 billion yuan, the same as last year, and the total profit was 13491.4 billion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year. The National Data Bureau is formulating policies to cultivate the national integrated data market [2].