投资的科学面：均值回归是绕不开的铁律 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析投资的运气骗局，拆解背后不为人知的硬核逻辑。 不少人觉得投资全靠运气，有人靠一只股票翻倍，有人却栽得血本无归。但往深了挖才发现，那些看似 幸运的成功，背后都藏着一套严密的逻辑。 经济学的"理性人"假设虽不完美，却揭示了投资的底层规律。投资从来不是瞎蒙，它既有科学的必然， 也有艺术的弹性，看懂这一点，才能避开大多数坑。 投资的科学成分，核心就是均值回归的必然性，说白了就是涨久必跌，跌久必涨。这不是随口说说的玄 学，而是经过市场长期验证的规律。 就像去年火遍全网的某新能源龙头股，2023年一路飙升翻了三倍，不少人追高入场，觉得会一直涨。结 果2024年上半年直接腰斩，套牢了大批散户。 证券日报11月底报道过一则案例，某基金经理坚持均值回归逻辑，在这只股估值高位时果断减仓，转而 布局低估的消费板块。虽然短期业绩不如同行，但到了2024年下半年，消费板块回暖，他的基金业绩直 接冲进同类前10%。 还有A股市场的白酒板块，过去十几年里经历过多次涨跌循环，每次下跌后总会有反弹，每次暴涨后也 难免回调。这就是均值回归的力量，不管市场情绪多狂热或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of economic thought through paradigm shifts and integrations, emphasizing that each theoretical change in economics occurs through these two stages, which is distinct from the natural sciences [19]. Group 1: Paradigm Shifts in Economic Thought - The first paradigm shift in economics occurred in the 1770s, marked by the publication of Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776, which transitioned the focus from "wealth management" to "wealth production" [20]. - The second paradigm shift took place in the 1870s with the rise of the marginal utility school, which challenged the classical economics' labor theory of value and introduced the "subjective value" paradigm [43]. Group 2: Paradigm Integrations in Economic Thought - The first paradigm integration occurred in the 1840s with John Stuart Mill's "Principles of Political Economy," which combined the "wealth management" and "wealth production" paradigms into a complementary theoretical framework [32]. - The second paradigm integration happened in the late 19th century with Alfred Marshall's "Principles of Economics," which synthesized classical economics' "objective value" and the marginal utility school's "subjective value" into what is known as "neoclassical economics" [51][52].