以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 留不下的欧洲。 两个年轻朋友，一直都在关注旅界，男生介绍自己叫小远，即将毕业，家里在长三角做外贸生意，家境殷实。 女生叫Cl a r a，正在为找实习焦头烂额，脸上有着精致妆容遮不住的疲惫。 小远率先打破了沉默。 他说，哥，我现在面临一个巨大的沉没成本问题，家里送他出来，学费加生活费，这几年花了将近3 0 0万人民币。 在学校里，教授讲的是资产管理和收益最大化，但在当地奢华酒店实习时，小远看到了隐形的鄙视链。 同样是实习生，欧洲白人面孔站在礼宾台谈笑风生，他却被安排在后厨和客房，干着最脏最累的活。 经理的理由永远是法语不够流利，但实际上是廉价的亚洲劳动力最好用，每天的工作不是在宴会厅擦几千个银刀叉，就是跪在地上清 理地毯污渍。 作者 / theodore熙少 来源 / 旅界 （ID: tourismzonenews） 01 近日，我在瑞士蒙特勒休假期间，和两位附近读酒店管理的同学碰了个面。 他们是从半山腰坐齿轮火车下来的，那里有着被誉为世界前三的酒店管理名校。 原本学校最引以为傲的全球轮岗机会，也被那几年疫情彻底切断 ...

困在"赌徒心态"中的人 你是不是经常有下面的想法： 1、连抛三次硬币都是正面，下一次背面的概率更高 4、不同时间出门，却在这个路口连续三天遇到红灯，今天应该不会再遇到红灯了吧； 5、最近三次打板都吃大面了，换了一个账户，下一次转运！ 你危险了！那些把身家性命都输光的赌徒也是这么想的。 其实高中数学就学过，抛硬币、掷骰子、彩票号码、股票打板，等等，每一次都是独立事件，过去的结果对未来没有影响。 但学归学，很多人在运气连续不好时，就会觉得运气"欠"自己一次，将随机性拟人化，感觉硬币、骰子或股票记住了它之前的小概率"行为"，会通过反向 操作来平衡之前的失衡。 这个想法好像也有点科学道理，抛硬币的正反面不是应该各占50%吗？出现了连续几次正面，后面不是应该多几个反面吗？不是有一个规律叫"均值回 归"吗？ 所以赌徒输得越多，越是相信只要继续下注，运气就能帮自己翻本，正是这种心态，让他们越输越要赌，直到输光。 要理解这个现象，我们首先应该理解"独立事件概率不变"与"均值回归"这两个规律各自适用的范围： A连开四次"小" 如果赌徒有"无穷多"的钱，那当然一定可以翻本，可如果他有"无穷多"的钱，那还来赌什么呢？ 很多人道理都 ...

投资的科学面：均值回归是绕不开的铁律 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析投资的运气骗局，拆解背后不为人知的硬核逻辑。 不少人觉得投资全靠运气，有人靠一只股票翻倍，有人却栽得血本无归。但往深了挖才发现，那些看似 幸运的成功，背后都藏着一套严密的逻辑。 经济学的"理性人"假设虽不完美，却揭示了投资的底层规律。投资从来不是瞎蒙，它既有科学的必然， 也有艺术的弹性，看懂这一点，才能避开大多数坑。 投资的科学成分，核心就是均值回归的必然性，说白了就是涨久必跌，跌久必涨。这不是随口说说的玄 学，而是经过市场长期验证的规律。 就像去年火遍全网的某新能源龙头股，2023年一路飙升翻了三倍，不少人追高入场，觉得会一直涨。结 果2024年上半年直接腰斩，套牢了大批散户。 证券日报11月底报道过一则案例，某基金经理坚持均值回归逻辑，在这只股估值高位时果断减仓，转而 布局低估的消费板块。虽然短期业绩不如同行，但到了2024年下半年，消费板块回暖，他的基金业绩直 接冲进同类前10%。 还有A股市场的白酒板块，过去十几年里经历过多次涨跌循环，每次下跌后总会有反弹，每次暴涨后也 难免回调。这就是均值回归的力量，不管市场情绪多狂热或 ...

法治在线丨民警接反诈预警紧急寻人拦截 当事人竟"躲起来" "家人不让我寄黄金，还报警！"这是武汉的蔡女士被拉进武汉市公安局汉阳区分局五里墩街派出所说的 第一句话。蔡女士情绪激动，拒绝透露任何信息。这到底是怎么一回事？ 被骗子洗脑邮寄黄金 家人"劝不住"报警 民警：我跟你说现在是电信诈骗。 蔡女士：我知道，你不说我都知道，我知道网络诈骗的。 武汉市公安局五里墩街派出所民警 吴限：他就是充当客服，是很典型的"低投资、高回报"返利的骗 术，用线下取黄金比较隐蔽的方式来完成。 在蔡女士前往骗子指定地址进行交易前，民警及时把黄金拦截。 警方提示 诱购黄金往外寄 都是骗子设的局 民警苦口婆心劝说了一个小时，才成功拦下蔡女士包里价值11万多元的黄金。这种骗局常以不明快递单 据诱导扫码，诱骗老人购买邮寄黄金。 警方提示：不明快递别乱扫，"规划师"来要警惕；诱购黄金往外寄，都是骗子设的局。 苦劝半天就是不听！ 急坏民警 执意要给骗子转账、寄黄金的，还有在上海的苗女士。警方已经收到反诈预警，说她正准备转5万块 钱。可是民警赶过去找到她的时候，她压根不承认这件事！ 民警：你现在在哪个位置？你不要再转账了，我跟你讲，你得告诉我，我马 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of students lowering their expectations for graduate school admissions due to the competitive nature of the exam and the job market, leading to a phenomenon known as "downgrade graduate school" [4][9][25]. Group 1: Trends in Graduate School Admissions - The number of graduate school applicants has been rising rapidly since 2017, with annual growth rates exceeding 10% over the past five years [5]. - By 2019, the admission scores for popular majors and schools had increased significantly, with some scores rising by 15 points compared to the previous year [5]. - Despite the expansion of graduate programs, the admission rate has not kept pace, with only one in three to four applicants successfully gaining admission [7]. Group 2: Student Strategies and Choices - Students are increasingly adopting conservative strategies in their school selection, often choosing lower-tier institutions to ensure admission [9][10]. - There is a trend where students aiming for "good employment" majors are forced to apply to less prestigious schools in less desirable regions [10]. - Many students are prioritizing practical, high-employment majors over prestigious institutions, reflecting a shift in perception regarding the value of school reputation [10][11]. Group 3: Psychological and Social Factors - The pressure to gain admission to graduate school has created a "must succeed" mentality among students, leading to a collective anxiety about academic performance and future prospects [8][12]. - Social media has amplified this pressure, with many students seeking validation and support from peers in similar situations [13][14]. - The concept of "sunk cost" is prevalent among students, where repeated attempts at graduate school create a psychological barrier to abandoning the pursuit [19]. Group 4: Employment Market Dynamics - The job market increasingly favors candidates with graduate degrees, but this trend is shifting as employers begin to prioritize undergraduate credentials over graduate degrees from less prestigious institutions [22][23]. - There is a growing realization among students that obtaining a master's degree may not guarantee better job prospects, leading to a reconsideration of the value of pursuing further education [25]. - Many students are now recognizing that entering the workforce directly may be a more viable path than pursuing a graduate degree, especially when faced with the realities of the job market [25].

Core Insights - Sam's Club in China has achieved sales exceeding 100 billion, accounting for nearly two-thirds of Walmart China's total net sales [1] - In contrast, local supermarket companies are facing significant declines, with a 13.2% drop in total revenue and a 48.12% plunge in net profit in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 1: Sam's Club Performance - Sam's Club has set a record for the fastest store openings in its 29 years in China, with six new stores opened in the first half of 2025 and a total of 11 planned for the year, bringing the total to nearly 60 stores [5] - The membership fee model, with annual fees of 260 yuan for regular and 680 yuan for premium, initially seemed counterintuitive in a market where entry is typically free [7][9] - The changing economic landscape, with per capita GDP surpassing 8,000 USD and especially 10,000 USD, has shifted consumer behavior away from solely seeking low prices [7] Group 2: Consumer Psychology and Trust - The membership fee acts as a filter, attracting consumers who value quality, efficiency, and trust over mere affordability [9][11] - The concept of "sunk cost" enhances customer retention, as consumers feel compelled to purchase more once they have paid for the membership [11] - Sam's Club offers a unique value proposition by providing certainty in product quality, alleviating consumer concerns about counterfeit goods and ingredient transparency [14][16] Group 3: Product Selection and Experience - Sam's Club simplifies the shopping experience by offering around 4,000 carefully selected products, significantly fewer than traditional supermarkets [19][21] - A professional buying team leverages global supply chains and consumer data to curate high-quality options, reducing decision fatigue for consumers [21][23] - The self-owned brand, Member's Mark, contributes nearly 40% of sales and embodies the commitment to quality and traceability [25] Group 4: Competitive Strategy and Market Position - Sam's Club has established a "trust moat" through stringent quality control, differentiating itself from local competitors who engage in price wars [27] - The company has adapted to online sales, with over 50% of sales now occurring online, supported by a network of over 500 fulfillment centers [29][30] - The appointment of former Alibaba executive Liu Peng as president of Sam's China indicates a strategic focus on digital operations and online growth [31] Group 5: Industry Implications - Sam's Club's success highlights the failures of local retailers who have not built consumer trust and have been caught in a cycle of internal competition [37] - The contrasting success of Sam's Club and local retailers underscores the importance of genuine consumer engagement and quality control in retail [35]

杨婷 以上所有成本，都是"选择"带来的必然结果。作家放弃稳定的收入、自由的时间、丰富的社交甚至身体 健康，最终兑换成了精神创造的独家性——用文字治愈自己、记录时代、表达思想、构建跨越时空的共 鸣，这种价值无法用金钱予以衡量。此外，丰饶内心世界的灵魂自洽、腹有诗书气自华的精神风貌，也 是妥妥的正收益。 正视各种成本，能让选择更清醒：它提醒每个想成为作家的人，这条道路不仅需要热爱，更需要对"放 弃"的坦然，对"不确定性"的耐受，以及对"隐性代价"的清醒认知。毕竟，真正的作家，明知代价，仍 愿为文字燃烧。 本版专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点 时间的不可逆分配，是作家最核心的机会成本。写作需要无干扰的深度投入，这种时间一旦投入，便无 法再用于其他领域。一位每天写作4小时的创作者，若将这些时间用于学习编程，可能3年内成长为初级 开发工程师；若用于经营自媒体，或许能积累10万粉丝的私域流量；若用于陪伴家人，能参与孩子成长 的每一个关键节点。此外，作家的时间投入，还存在"沉没成本"的风险：花6个月写的小说，可能被编 辑退稿；花3个月打磨的散文，可能投稿无门，无人问津。这些无法产生直接价值的时间，若用于学习 其他技能或拓展人脉， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's approach to business, emphasizing that his motivation is not merely financial but rather about creating a binding relationship with companies, ensuring they align with his vision and goals [9][10][12]. Group 1: Musk's Strategy - Musk is not driven by the need for money but seeks a relationship where companies are committed to his vision, creating a scenario where they have no choice but to follow his lead [9][10]. - The concept of "sunk cost" is crucial; by making significant investments in companies, Musk ensures they are bound to support his direction, as they have already committed resources [11][12]. - This strategy mirrors historical examples, such as the relationship between Qin Shi Huang and his general Wang Jian, where maximum resource commitment was necessary to ensure loyalty and support [16][17]. Group 2: Challenges in Execution - The real challenge in business is not the projects themselves but getting cooperation from colleagues and departments, as everyone has their own priorities [22][23]. - Successful individuals in the workplace often excel at resource coordination and securing executive support, creating a situation where substantial investments lead to a commitment to a specific direction [23][24]. - Musk's ability to create a significant sunk cost ensures that companies must align with his vision, or they risk losing their investment [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Elon Musk's approach to business, emphasizing that his focus is not on money but on creating a binding relationship with companies, ensuring they are committed to his vision through significant sunk costs [5][6]. Group 1: Musk's Business Strategy - Musk's strategy involves creating a situation where companies have substantial sunk costs tied to him, ensuring they must follow his direction [5][6]. - The concept of "sunk cost" is highlighted as a means to secure unwavering support from companies, making it difficult for them to deviate from his plans [6]. - The article draws a parallel between Musk's approach and historical figures like Qin Shi Huang, illustrating the importance of total commitment and resource allocation to achieve ambitious goals [6]. Group 2: Challenges in Execution - The article points out that the real challenge in executing projects is not the projects themselves but getting cooperation from colleagues and departments [6]. - It emphasizes that successful individuals in the workplace are those who can coordinate resources and gain support from leadership, often by establishing significant sunk costs [6]. - Musk's willingness to invest heavily in his ventures is portrayed as a way to ensure that companies remain aligned with his vision, reinforcing the idea that collaboration is essential for success [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the psychological struggles faced by retail investors in the stock market, emphasizing that the emotional toll of missed opportunities and self-doubt can be more painful than actual financial losses [1][3][4]. Group 1: Psychological Impact of Trading - Investors often experience intense regret and self-blame when they miss out on profitable trades, leading to feelings of inadequacy and frustration [3][4]. - The concept of "opportunity cost" is highlighted, where the pain of not capitalizing on potential gains is felt more acutely than the pain of actual losses [4][7]. - Social media and peer comparisons exacerbate feelings of isolation and failure among investors, as they witness others profiting while they struggle [4][5][8]. Group 2: Behavioral Economics and Decision-Making - The article references behavioral economics, particularly "prospect theory," which states that individuals are more sensitive to losses than to equivalent gains, making them more likely to hold onto losing positions [4][5]. - Investors often fall into the trap of "sunk cost fallacy," where they continue to invest in losing stocks in hopes of recovering past losses, rather than cutting their losses [5][12]. - The narrative of a retail investor who lost significant capital due to emotional decision-making illustrates the dangers of ignoring rational investment strategies [5][11]. Group 3: Strategies for Better Trading - The article suggests setting stop-loss orders to mitigate emotional decision-making and prevent further losses [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified investment approach and not relying solely on stock trading for income, which can lead to heightened stress and poor decision-making [11][14]. - The final takeaway is that successful investing requires discipline and emotional control, rather than succumbing to greed and fear [15][16].