（来源：湖南金融） 不要为打翻的牛奶哭泣 世界著名的人际关系学大师卡耐基在事业刚起步时，曾在美国密苏里州举办成人教育班，并陆续在各大 城市开设分部。他花了大量资金在广告宣传上，同时房租、日常办公等开销也很大。尽管收入不少，但 过了一段时间后，他发现自己几乎没有赚到利润。由于财务管理上的欠缺，收入与支出几乎持平，一连 数月的辛苦劳动竟然没有什么回报。 为此，卡耐基非常苦恼，他不断地抱怨自己的疏忽大意，整日闷闷不乐、神情恍惚，事业也因此停滞不 前。 后来，卡耐基前去拜访中学时的老师，听完他的叙述，老师没有多说什么，只是将手边的牛奶打翻，说 道："不要为打翻的牛奶哭泣。"老师简单的一句话令卡耐基如梦初醒。"是的，牛奶被打翻了，全部洒 了，该怎么办？是看着被打翻的牛奶哭泣，还是转身去做些有意义的事？记住，被打翻的牛奶已成事 实，不可能被重新装回瓶中，我们唯一能做的，就是吸取教训，然后忘掉这些不愉快。"这段话，卡耐 基后来不仅常常讲给学生听，也用来提醒自己。 智汇点睛 这则故事看似简单，却揭示了财富管理与人生经营中容易被忽视的一课：沉没成本不应左右未来的决 策。 卡耐基最初将精力耗费在对已发生损失的懊悔中，这无形中阻碍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of making wise decisions in investing, highlighting that knowing what to do and what to avoid is crucial for wealth accumulation [4]. Group 1: Effective Actions - The first key action is to identify what is effective and repeat it. Successful investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett focus on holding quality investments over the long term, such as Coca-Cola and American Express, which have solidified Berkshire Hathaway's market position [5][6]. - Munger advocates for extensive reading across various fields, stating that it broadens one's understanding and enhances decision-making capabilities. He believes that reading is a powerful tool for personal and financial growth [6]. - Continuous learning and refining one's thinking process are essential. Munger emphasizes the need to develop a personal investment system by studying successful investors and creating a variety of mental models to tackle challenges [8]. Group 2: Avoiding Ineffective Actions - The second key action is to discover what is ineffective and avoid it. Munger believes that identifying unproductive activities is more important than merely being busy. He advises against engaging in low-level social interactions that do not provide intellectual stimulation [11][12]. - Munger warns against blind busyness, likening it to a game of musical chairs where those who are overly busy often miss opportunities. He stresses the importance of patience and focusing on familiar industries rather than chasing fleeting trends [15]. - Avoiding the sunk cost fallacy is crucial. Munger shares his experience with a failed investment in a shoe company, illustrating that clinging to past investments can lead to greater losses. He advocates for recognizing when to cut losses and move on [17][20]. Group 3: Wealth Accumulation Philosophy - Munger's philosophy on wealth accumulation is that it is not about the quantity of actions taken but the quality of decisions made. He uses the example of Westinghouse Electric, which failed due to overextending into unfamiliar areas, to illustrate the importance of sticking to what one knows [20]. - The article concludes that consistent, thoughtful actions lead to wealth. Munger suggests that individuals should strive to be slightly smarter each day and focus on their responsibilities to gradually build wealth [24].

来源：科技日报 本报记者 张佳欣 这种生物化学反应为"沉没成本"提供了坚实的神经基础：因为你付出的足够多，所以获得回报的那一 刻，大脑给你的愉悦感冲击也更加猛烈。这种爆发式的快感会反过来重塑你的认知，认为它更值钱了。 但实际上，只是大脑在为你努力的汗水买单。 为了抢到一张心仪歌手的演唱会门票，你提前定好闹钟，在几个平台间疯狂切换，甚至不惜加价购 买"溢价票"，抢到票以后你会觉得无比喜悦；为了排到那家网红餐厅，你在寒风中瑟瑟发抖两小时，进 店后即便菜品味道一般，你也会自我安慰"来都来了，其实还行"；在一段早已千疮百孔的感情里，你一 边抱怨对方的冷漠，一边却因为"在一起这么多年"而迟迟不肯放手…… 这些生活场景背后的逻辑其实很古怪。我们对一件事物的估值，往往不取决于它本身的价值，而取决于 我们为其付出的代价。在经济学和心理学中，这被解释为"沉没成本"。即便客观收益已经微乎其微，只 要你投入了金钱、时间，甚至情绪，大脑就会像产生执念一样，还想继续投入。 为什么进化没有让我们变得更理智？近期，美国斯坦福大学医学中心科学家的最新研究，揭开了这背后 的神经科学奥秘。 在小鼠实验中，科学家设置了一系列关卡。小鼠需要通过反复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "Winner's Curse" in the context of the current AI infrastructure competition, highlighting the irrational exuberance in capital expenditures driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) rather than sound financial models [2][5][9]. Group 1: Winner's Curse in AI Infrastructure - The term "Winner's Curse" refers to the tendency of winning bidders in auctions to overpay due to optimistic valuations, which can lead to disappointing returns [2][3]. - In the AI infrastructure race, major tech companies are engaged in a capital bidding war, with reported capital expenditures reaching up to $400 billion by 2025 [5][7]. - The competition is characterized by a lack of rigorous cash flow models, with companies driven by the fear of falling behind rather than rational assessments of value [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The rapid increase in hardware prices, such as DRAM and high-performance memory, reflects the "Winner's Curse" as suppliers capitalize on the competitive bidding environment [7]. - The article draws parallels to historical events, such as the California Gold Rush, where the true beneficiaries were not the miners but those supplying tools and resources [7]. - The disparity between rising asset prices and struggling operational cash flows indicates a potential misalignment in market valuations [7][8]. Group 3: Talent Acquisition and Valuation - The "Winner's Curse" extends to the talent market, where companies are overpaying for top AI talent, often leading to overestimation of their marginal value [8]. - The rapid pace of technological advancement can render significant investments in talent obsolete before the return on investment is realized [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of having the ability to exit investments that no longer make sense, contrasting with the tendency to continue investing due to sunk cost fallacy [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the consumer behavior regarding single payments versus subscription packages, highlighting the psychological factors influencing these choices. Group 1: Advantages of Subscription Packages - Subscription packages allow businesses to secure cash flow and reduce refund rates, leading to increased repurchase rates and stable operational expectations [1] - They enable businesses to accumulate user data through repeated consumption, facilitating targeted marketing and enhancing brand loyalty [1] Group 2: Consumer Preferences for Single Payments - A significant portion of consumers, 36.6%, prefer single payments when using shared bicycles, indicating a strong inclination towards flexibility [1] - Consumers may avoid subscription packages due to the fear of "sunk costs" associated with unused credits, which can lead to a negative consumption experience [3] Group 3: Psychological Factors Influencing Choices - The concept of "loss aversion" suggests that consumers experience greater pain from potential losses than pleasure from equivalent gains, making them hesitant to commit to subscription packages [4] - The pressure to utilize subscription services can transform enjoyment into a chore, as consumers may feel compelled to meet usage quotas rather than enjoying the service [4] Group 4: Suitability of Payment Options - Subscription packages are more suitable for consumers with stable consumption patterns, such as daily coffee drinkers or regular gym-goers, while those with variable lifestyles may prefer the flexibility of single payments [5] - The article emphasizes that true savings come from spending money willingly and comfortably, rather than being constrained by subscription commitments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by international students in the hospitality industry in Europe, highlighting the disconnect between high educational costs and the realities of the job market, particularly for Asian students in a competitive environment dominated by local labor preferences [8][30][42]. Group 1: Student Experiences - A student named Xiao Yuan expresses concerns about the significant financial investment of approximately 3 million RMB (around 300,000 CNY) for his education, which has not translated into expected career opportunities [8][9]. - Clara, another student, struggles to find suitable internships and realizes that her prestigious education does not guarantee a desirable job, as she ends up receiving an offer for a sales associate position at LVMH instead of a management role in a hotel [17][20]. - Both students feel the impact of a "glass ceiling" in the Swiss job market, where local candidates are prioritized for employment, making it difficult for them to secure positions despite their qualifications [28][30]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The European hospitality industry is currently facing economic challenges due to rising energy prices and inflation, which have led to reduced training budgets and a preference for cheaper labor [36][38]. - The demand for skilled labor has shifted, with employers now favoring local or Eastern European workers who require less complex hiring processes and have lower salary expectations [41][42]. - The article notes that the previous trend of investing in diverse talent for enhancing service quality has diminished, as companies focus on cost-cutting measures [39][40]. Group 3: Educational Value - The article questions the return on investment for a 300,000 RMB education in hotel management, suggesting that the skills learned are becoming commoditized and easily replaceable [61][63]. - It argues that the true value of such an education may lie in the social capital and networking opportunities it provides, rather than in direct job placement [70][72]. - The narrative indicates a growing divide in the service industry, where standardized services are increasingly performed by low-cost labor, while high-end services require specialized professionals with unique skills [81][83].

Group 1 - The article discusses the "gambler's fallacy," where individuals believe that past independent events influence future outcomes, leading to irrational betting behavior [1][2][8] - It explains the difference between "independent event probability" and "mean reversion," emphasizing that while individual events are independent, over a large number of trials, probabilities will converge to expected values [2][3] - The concept of "infinite" is introduced, indicating that past outcomes have negligible impact on future results, reinforcing the idea that gamblers often misinterpret random sequences as patterns [3][4][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the psychological phenomenon known as the "Zeigarnik effect," which explains why individuals struggle to abandon ongoing tasks or investments, as they feel a psychological tension until the task is completed [19][22] - It suggests that the perception of time influences decision-making, where continuous events are misinterpreted as connected, leading to flawed reasoning in gambling and investing [11][15] - The article provides two recommendations to mitigate the gambler's mindset: resetting time to create a psychological break and pre-setting stop-loss mechanisms to manage risk effectively [27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that investment success is purely based on luck, emphasizing that behind seemingly lucky outcomes lies a rigorous logic and understanding of market dynamics [1] Group 1: Scientific Aspects of Investment - The principle of mean reversion is highlighted as a fundamental rule in investing, indicating that after prolonged price increases, a decline is inevitable, and vice versa [3] - A case study is presented where a fund manager applied mean reversion logic, reducing exposure to a high-valued stock and reallocating to undervalued consumer sectors, resulting in top-tier performance by late 2024 [3] - The A-share market's liquor sector is cited as an example of mean reversion, demonstrating cycles of price increases and decreases, ultimately aligning with reasonable valuations [5] Group 2: Artistic Aspects of Investment - The unpredictability of market sentiment is discussed, noting that valuation is often subjective and not an exact science, as illustrated by differing valuations from renowned investors like Buffett and Munger [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and market sentiment, with examples of contrasting views on the AI sector's valuation in 2025 [7] - A notable example is provided where a tech company's stock price dropped 70% due to poor performance, leading to a significant rebound of 50% after being identified as undervalued [7] Group 3: Avoiding Luck Traps - Two key principles for avoiding reliance on luck in investment are outlined: avoiding being trapped by sunk costs and considering opportunity costs [9] - A case is mentioned where an investor held onto a losing stock due to sunk costs, resulting in increased losses, highlighting the need for decisive action upon recognizing fundamental issues [11] - The importance of evaluating whether current investments are the best use of capital is stressed, with a reference to Buffett's analogy regarding player batting averages [11]

法治在线丨民警接反诈预警紧急寻人拦截 当事人竟"躲起来" "家人不让我寄黄金，还报警！"这是武汉的蔡女士被拉进武汉市公安局汉阳区分局五里墩街派出所说的 第一句话。蔡女士情绪激动，拒绝透露任何信息。这到底是怎么一回事？ 被骗子洗脑邮寄黄金 家人"劝不住"报警 民警：我跟你说现在是电信诈骗。 蔡女士：我知道，你不说我都知道，我知道网络诈骗的。 武汉市公安局五里墩街派出所民警 吴限：他就是充当客服，是很典型的"低投资、高回报"返利的骗 术，用线下取黄金比较隐蔽的方式来完成。 在蔡女士前往骗子指定地址进行交易前，民警及时把黄金拦截。 警方提示 诱购黄金往外寄 都是骗子设的局 民警苦口婆心劝说了一个小时，才成功拦下蔡女士包里价值11万多元的黄金。这种骗局常以不明快递单 据诱导扫码，诱骗老人购买邮寄黄金。 警方提示：不明快递别乱扫，"规划师"来要警惕；诱购黄金往外寄，都是骗子设的局。 苦劝半天就是不听！ 急坏民警 执意要给骗子转账、寄黄金的，还有在上海的苗女士。警方已经收到反诈预警，说她正准备转5万块 钱。可是民警赶过去找到她的时候，她压根不承认这件事！ 民警：你现在在哪个位置？你不要再转账了，我跟你讲，你得告诉我，我马 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of students lowering their expectations for graduate school admissions due to the competitive nature of the exam and the job market, leading to a phenomenon known as "downgrade graduate school" [4][9][25]. Group 1: Trends in Graduate School Admissions - The number of graduate school applicants has been rising rapidly since 2017, with annual growth rates exceeding 10% over the past five years [5]. - By 2019, the admission scores for popular majors and schools had increased significantly, with some scores rising by 15 points compared to the previous year [5]. - Despite the expansion of graduate programs, the admission rate has not kept pace, with only one in three to four applicants successfully gaining admission [7]. Group 2: Student Strategies and Choices - Students are increasingly adopting conservative strategies in their school selection, often choosing lower-tier institutions to ensure admission [9][10]. - There is a trend where students aiming for "good employment" majors are forced to apply to less prestigious schools in less desirable regions [10]. - Many students are prioritizing practical, high-employment majors over prestigious institutions, reflecting a shift in perception regarding the value of school reputation [10][11]. Group 3: Psychological and Social Factors - The pressure to gain admission to graduate school has created a "must succeed" mentality among students, leading to a collective anxiety about academic performance and future prospects [8][12]. - Social media has amplified this pressure, with many students seeking validation and support from peers in similar situations [13][14]. - The concept of "sunk cost" is prevalent among students, where repeated attempts at graduate school create a psychological barrier to abandoning the pursuit [19]. Group 4: Employment Market Dynamics - The job market increasingly favors candidates with graduate degrees, but this trend is shifting as employers begin to prioritize undergraduate credentials over graduate degrees from less prestigious institutions [22][23]. - There is a growing realization among students that obtaining a master's degree may not guarantee better job prospects, leading to a reconsideration of the value of pursuing further education [25]. - Many students are now recognizing that entering the workforce directly may be a more viable path than pursuing a graduate degree, especially when faced with the realities of the job market [25].