Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格下跌 8 元至 5908 元/吨。持仓方面，主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 合约 2509 持仓量为 4.23 万手，持仓-618 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶片 价格下跌 5 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格下跌 10 至 6050 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 35.42 万吨，较上周减少 1.14 万吨。 | | | | | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 77.5%，较上周下降 2.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5725 | | | | | 元，下降 3.1%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-300 元/吨，环比增加 ...