油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9238.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.61%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8258.00 元/吨，环比变化+32.00元，幅度+0.39%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9326.00元/吨，环比变化-19.00元，幅度-0.20%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9130.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.77%，现货基差P05-108.00，环比变 化-76.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8540.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.23%，现货基差Y05+282.00， 环比变化-12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.20%，现货基差 OI05+834.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，得益于节日季前的补货需求，马来西亚棕榈油出口延续增势，为价格提供利多 支撑。船货检验机构ITS发布的数据显示，马来西亚1月1-25日棕榈油产品出口量为1163634吨，较上月同期出口的 1058112吨增加9.97%。独立检验公司AmSpec Agri ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to the absence of Chinese purchases, leading to a "bumper harvest but unsold" crisis, with exports stagnating and prices under pressure [3][19]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean futures prices have been fluctuating between 1000 to 1050 cents per bushel since October, with weakening supply-demand conditions and uncertainty in global trade [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, increasing market uncertainty as trading relies on estimates from market analysis firms [2]. - The USDA's September report indicated an increase in U.S. soybean planting area by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, with total production rising by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels, despite a slight decrease in yield [2]. Group 2: Export Challenges - The U.S. soybean export market is heavily reliant on China, which has seen a drastic drop in purchases from 13 million tons last year to zero for the new season due to trade tensions [4][3]. - In the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean exports to China are expected to decline by 8.1% to 22.48 million tons, with the share of total exports dropping from 54% to 44% [4]. - The overall expectation for U.S. soybean ending stocks is increasing due to reduced export demand and rising domestic inventories [2][3]. Group 3: South American Soybean Market - In contrast to the U.S., Brazil's soybean exports are experiencing strong growth, with October exports reaching 2.166 million tons, a 26.5% year-on-year increase [7]. - Argentina is also seeing a rise in soybean pre-sales and export license applications, indicating robust export potential despite recent slowdowns [8][10]. - The overall dominance of South American soybeans in the global market is expected to continue, with Brazil and Argentina benefiting from favorable weather conditions and policy support [12][19]. Group 4: Soybean Crushing and Demand - U.S. soybean crushing remains at historically high levels, with September crushing volume reaching 19.78 million bushels, a 4.24% month-on-month increase [13]. - However, soybean crushing profits are declining due to lower meal prices and competition from Argentine exports, which are impacting U.S. market share [13][14]. - The future of U.S. soybean crushing will depend on domestic biodiesel policies and the ability to maintain competitive pricing against South American soy products [14]. Group 5: Weather and Planting Conditions - The focus has shifted to South American planting conditions, with Argentina experiencing favorable moisture levels for soybean planting, while Brazil faces mixed weather challenges [16][17]. - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence soybean yields, with Argentina showing potential for high yields while Brazil's southern regions may face drought risks [18]. - The overall global soybean market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, heavily influenced by policy decisions and weather conditions [19].