油脂日报 | 2026-01-22 生柴政策主导行情，油脂盘面震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8832.00元/吨，环比变化+84元，幅度+0.96%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8044.00 元/吨，环比变化+12.00元，幅度+0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8947.00元/吨，环比变化-1.00元，幅度-0.01%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8810.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.92%，现货基差P05-22.00，环比变化-4.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8390.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%，现货基差Y05+346.00，环比变 化-32.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差OI05+833.00， 环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026年1月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油单产环 比上月同期减少16.49%，出油率环比上月同期增加0.08%，产量环比上月同期减少16.06%。特朗普政府将在3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Silver: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Logs: Rebounding from the bottom [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [4] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish - biased [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Widely oscillating [9] - PTA: Widely oscillating [9] - MEG: Oscillating [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in 2026, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen a rebound due to improved sentiment and short - term fundamentals, but the implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction due to weakening demand and insufficient supply contraction, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold - repair situations [2]. - The financial market is in short - term shock adjustment, with the mid - term trend continuing and the high - tech industry growing. The gold price is affected by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies [3]. - The log market has weakening supply pressure and non - weak demand in the off - season, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom but with weak driving force [4]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The double - offset paper market has supply pressure and general social orders, and the price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. - The oil and fat market has uncertain demand prospects, high inventory pressure, and abundant supply, and is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose supply, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to factors such as the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply and increased downstream consumption demand, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The rubber market has supply affected by weather and demand with limited support, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with prices mainly affected by cost, supply - demand, and inventory factors [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global mine supply will increase significantly in 2026, while the current iron - making demand is weak, and the steel export policy is negative. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies, but the steel export policy has a negative impact on demand. Short - term, the price may be affected by the disappearance of export orders, and the long - term anti - involution policy provides some support [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, the steel export policy requires attention to production control and export expectations [2]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to weak demand and insufficient supply contraction. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom and may rebound due to sentiment [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is affected by policy arrangements and regulatory changes. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rebounding and some oscillating [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a state of consolidation with a slight rebound [3]. - **Precious metals**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies affect the price, which is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply pressure is weakening, and the demand is non - weak in the off - season. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the driving force is not strong [4]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, with cost support and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, and the social orders are general. The price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils and fats**: The demand prospects are uncertain, the inventory is high, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [7]. - **Meals**: The supply is relatively loose, affected by the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply is stable, the downstream consumption demand has increased slightly, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors increase supply risks, and the price is affected by oil prices. The demand from downstream polyester can support it for the time being [9]. - **PTA**: The cost end is affected by oil price fluctuations, and the short - term supply - demand is improved but will deteriorate in the future. The price follows the cost end [9]. - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term price oscillates with an upward suppression [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is strong, but the terminal demand restricts the price increase [9]. - **PF**: The cost is strong, but the demand is expected to shrink after New Year's Day, and the processing fee may be compressed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of oil and meal is weak. The soybean meal market is under pressure, and the oil market, including vegetable oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, is also in a weak state with no short - term upward driving factors [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - In the first week of December, Chicago soybean futures showed a weekly bearish reversal pattern and further declined last week, indicating that soybean futures prices may have peaked. The price pressure is mainly due to technical selling and the market has digested the positive news of China's soybean purchase agreement. The focus is on the strong record - high soybean production in South America [1] - The state reserve has twice released over 500,000 tons of imported soybeans within a week, accelerating the release speed, which will significantly supplement the soybean supply gap in February and March, causing the near - month contracts to weaken [1] - Frequent near - month releases may lead to a slight decline in spot and near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts are expected to remain in a volatile trend under the expectation of a loose supply [1] Vegetable Oil - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the final decision on 2026 biofuel blending is expected to be completed in the first quarter of next year. The planting area of winter rapeseed in France is expected to increase by 6.4% to 1.34 million hectares in 2026 [2] - Argentina's general labor union will launch a large - scale strike and demonstration on December 18th, and the oilseed industry union will support the national strike, with oilseed processing plants and cotton ginning plants workers on strike for one day [2] - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retracted. After continuous decline, attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting purchases of Canadian rapeseed. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a weak trend [2] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand with no obvious driving force. The delay of the US biofuel policy to the first quarter of next year means that the stocking of US biofuel merchants will be postponed again. Before the policy is implemented, the buying power of US soybean oil will remain weak. The strike in Argentina may have a short - term impact but cannot change the overall loose supply. Domestic soybean oil is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [2] Palm Oil - The export report shows that the first half - month is still weak, and the production in the first half - month has not decreased significantly compared with last month. Palm oil is in a stage of strong supply and weak demand and is expected to remain weak in the short term [3] - Overall, the oil market is in a weak trend. After the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile state again. After the delay of the US biofuel policy implementation, the weak and volatile period of the oil market may be longer, and there are no short - term upward driving factors [3]