研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 05 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3260 元（-10），北京敬业 3140 元（-10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3250 元（-20），天津河钢热卷 3170 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面继续承压，钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，价格跟随盘面下跌，刚需 采购为主。上周钢材有所复产，铁水转向增加，受利润水平的修复影响螺纹和热卷均 有所增产；钢材总库存继续去化，社库去化速度比厂库更快，钢材仍处于去库周期， 累库相对延后；季节性影响建材表需转弱，而热卷受家电企业年末补库及出口冲量影 响表需仍然增长，整体钢材需求表现仍然尚可；原料端煤矿供小幅回落，价格止跌企 稳，进口利润亏损支撑铁矿价格，钢材成本存在支撑，近期铁矿开始交易补库；但此 后铁水或加速复产，压制钢材上涨空间。进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On December 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed a volatile and upward trend. Considering that the export of steel products has significantly decreased this year, the impact of export license management on some steel mills is expected to be limited. The support from the raw material end has reappeared. Although the spot price of coke is about to decline for the third consecutive round, the iron ore price has rebounded to the level of late November, which is of great significance for stabilizing the price center of steel products. The previous investment strategy of selling on rallies needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound in the future [6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis**: On December 22, the prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets increased. The prices of rebar in Hangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Jinan decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil in Hangzhou, Wuxi, Changchun, and Chengdu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil continued to rise in a divergent manner. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days, approaching a golden cross [8]. - **Future Outlook**: On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, announcing the implementation of export license management for some steel products, which will help enhance China's pricing power for high-end steel products globally, track trade flows, standardize export order, and improve industry efficiency and product competitiveness. Fundamentally, the supply and demand have been weak recently. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since September last year, the social inventory has further decreased to a new low since the end of January, and the weekly consumption reached a new low since mid-October and the second lowest since mid-September. Affected by the continuous production cuts of steel mills, the cost of steel products has first decreased and then increased since late November, showing an overall downward trend. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has reached a new high of 155 million tons since April 2022, while steel mills have chosen to further reduce their inventory. The total inventory of imported ore of 247 sample steel mills has decreased to 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 13.1% compared with the beginning of October. In the past two weeks, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly decreased and reached a new low since May last year. However, the decline in coking coal prices has led to continuous profitability of coking enterprises for 5 weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot is about to be implemented. Recently, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. On December 4, the 10-day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 160,000 tons again, and further increased to 193,000 tons on December 13, an increase of 17.4% compared with the average since late November [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - Multiple government departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining and seal up abandoned mines [12]. - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [12]. - As of December 15, the annual cumulative production of commercial coal by Zhunneng Group has exceeded the annual plan by 859,400 tons [12]. - Chongqing Iron and Steel plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, raising a maximum of 1 billion yuan [12]. - China Shenhua plans to acquire relevant assets worth 133.598 billion yuan [12]. - Western Mining's subsidiary has obtained a mining license for an iron polymetallic ore [12]. - Huaihe Energy states that its coal-fired power units are mainly supplied by long-term contracts and some market coal, and there is no plan to purchase coal from Mongolia and Indonesia [12]. - Huafu Securities predicts that coal supply will decline in 2026, and the overall coal market will improve. The central price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 yuan, and the central price of coking coal will stabilize at the bottom [12]. - As of December 18, the cumulative import and export freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port has reached a record high, with significant growth in the import of copper concentrate powder, manganese ore, and the export of goods [12]. - In November 2025, China's coal exports increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the import of coking coal decreased year-on-year and the import of thermal coal decreased year-on-year [12]. - China has requested consultations with India on its tariff measures for information and communication products and photovoltaic subsidy measures at the WTO [12]. - In November 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, but the cumulative export volume from January to November increased year-on-year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides data charts on the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Silver: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Logs: Rebounding from the bottom [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [4] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish - biased [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Widely oscillating [9] - PTA: Widely oscillating [9] - MEG: Oscillating [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in 2026, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen a rebound due to improved sentiment and short - term fundamentals, but the implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction due to weakening demand and insufficient supply contraction, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold - repair situations [2]. - The financial market is in short - term shock adjustment, with the mid - term trend continuing and the high - tech industry growing. The gold price is affected by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies [3]. - The log market has weakening supply pressure and non - weak demand in the off - season, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom but with weak driving force [4]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The double - offset paper market has supply pressure and general social orders, and the price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. - The oil and fat market has uncertain demand prospects, high inventory pressure, and abundant supply, and is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose supply, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to factors such as the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply and increased downstream consumption demand, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The rubber market has supply affected by weather and demand with limited support, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with prices mainly affected by cost, supply - demand, and inventory factors [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global mine supply will increase significantly in 2026, while the current iron - making demand is weak, and the steel export policy is negative. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies, but the steel export policy has a negative impact on demand. Short - term, the price may be affected by the disappearance of export orders, and the long - term anti - involution policy provides some support [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, the steel export policy requires attention to production control and export expectations [2]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to weak demand and insufficient supply contraction. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom and may rebound due to sentiment [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is affected by policy arrangements and regulatory changes. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rebounding and some oscillating [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a state of consolidation with a slight rebound [3]. - **Precious metals**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies affect the price, which is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply pressure is weakening, and the demand is non - weak in the off - season. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the driving force is not strong [4]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, with cost support and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, and the social orders are general. The price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils and fats**: The demand prospects are uncertain, the inventory is high, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [7]. - **Meals**: The supply is relatively loose, affected by the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply is stable, the downstream consumption demand has increased slightly, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors increase supply risks, and the price is affected by oil prices. The demand from downstream polyester can support it for the time being [9]. - **PTA**: The cost end is affected by oil price fluctuations, and the short - term supply - demand is improved but will deteriorate in the future. The price follows the cost end [9]. - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term price oscillates with an upward suppression [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is strong, but the terminal demand restricts the price increase [9]. - **PF**: The cost is strong, but the demand is expected to shrink after New Year's Day, and the processing fee may be compressed [9].