研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 10 月 29 日 【生猪日报】市场变化有限 价格震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/10/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.67 | 12.75 | -0.08 | 山西 （-100） | 12.34 | 12.33 | 0.01 | | 湖北（0） | 12.50 | 12.30 | 0.20 | 辽 宁 | 12.61 | 12.62 | -0.01 | | 安徽（200） | 12.68 | 12.72 | -0.04 | 吉林（-300） | 12.57 | 12.55 | 0.02 | | 湖南（100） | 12.49 | 12.20 | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current supply pressure in the pig market remains significant, with high inventory levels and large weights of pigs for slaughter. The spot price of live pigs rebounded slightly today, but the overall scale of enterprise slaughter volume decreased slightly and remained at a high level. The slaughter volume this month continued to increase, and there was still pressure to meet the previous progress. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs is expected to remain relatively stable. Secondary fattening has started to show signs of entry, providing some support to prices. However, considering the high inventory and large weights of pigs, the supply pressure in the pig market is expected to persist, and the spot price is likely to decline in the future. The futures price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and the supply pressure remains. The limited rebound space of the spot price has also reduced its impact on the futures market. The far - month futures contracts are under pressure, and the overall futures market is expected to face certain downward pressure, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term downward trends [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Spot Price - The average spot price of live pigs today was 10.85 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices increased in all regions, with the largest increase of 0.2 yuan/kg in Guangdong and Yunnan [4]. 2. Futures Price - All futures contracts declined. LH01 decreased by 290 yuan to 11905 yuan, LH03 decreased by 125 yuan to 11540 yuan, LH05 decreased by 145 yuan to 12140 yuan, LH07 decreased by 205 yuan to 12925 yuan, LH09 decreased by 170 yuan to 13755 yuan, and LH11 decreased by 235 yuan to 11165 yuan [4]. 3. Piglet and Sow Prices - The price of piglets this week was 173 yuan, down 10 yuan from last week. The price of sows was 1545 yuan, down 18 yuan from last week [4]. 4. Breeding Profit - The profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 47.23 yuan from yesterday. The profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 41.63 yuan from yesterday [4]. 5. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today was 163263 heads, an increase of 999 heads from yesterday [4]. 6. Price Spread - The price spread between different futures contracts changed. For example, LH7 - 9 decreased by 35 to - 830, LH9 - 1 increased by 120 to 1850, LH9 - 11 increased by 65 to 2590, and LH11 - 1 increased by 55 to - 740. The price spread between large and small pigs also increased, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 to 0.43, the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.01 to 0.22, the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs increasing by 0.04 to 0.52, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.05 to 0.74 [4]. 7. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Conduct a reverse spread on LH15. - Options: Hold off on trading [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current high level of hog supply and large body weight continue to exert pressure on the market, with subsequent spot prices likely to decline, and the futures market also under pressure, showing short - term oscillations [2][4] - The short - term improvement in spot prices is mainly due to the entry of secondary fattening, but the overall fundamental improvement is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Market - Today's hog spot prices showed a slight rebound, with the average price remaining unchanged at 10.52 yuan. Among them, prices in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 11.19 yuan, while those in Liaoning increased by 0.13 yuan to 11.16 yuan. The overall supply pressure is high, with large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume increasing, and the overall slaughter volume remaining high. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers for slaughter is expected to remain relatively stable, and the supply of large - weight hogs is abundant [2] Futures Market - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly. LH01 rose 270 to 12405, and LH11 rose 325 to 11450. The far - month futures rebound space is limited due to relatively low costs and overall supply pressure. The current price is short - term oscillating, with subsequent pressure still existing [2][4] Sow/Piglet Market - This week, the piglet price was 173 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from last week, and the sow price was 1545 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from last week [2] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.23 yuan from the previous value, and the profit for purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.63 yuan from the previous value [2] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 489 to 159778 heads, and the price difference between large and small hogs continued to rebound, but the supply of large - weight hogs remained high [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for near - month contracts - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Livestock Daily - October 9, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the pig market is significant, with the overall supply remaining high. The price of live pigs in the spot market continues to decline, and the futures price also faces obvious downward pressure. The overall price trend is expected to be downward [4][6] Summary by Directory Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The spot prices of live pigs across the country showed an obvious downward trend. The average price dropped from 11.25 to 11.19, a decrease of 0.06 [4] - **Supply Situation**: The slaughter volume of scale enterprises and ordinary farmers increased, and the secondary fattening inventory continued to decline, but there was still some pressure to sell. The weight of live pigs for slaughter continued to increase, and the supply of large - weight pigs was still abundant [4] Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of live pigs continued to decline significantly. For example, LH01 dropped from 12825 to 12165, a decrease of 660 [4] - **Market Expectation**: Due to the obvious supply pressure in the future, the overall futures price is expected to continue to decline [6] Breeding and Related Prices - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: The price of piglets dropped from 236 to 212, a decrease of 24, and the price of sows dropped from 1588 to 1570, a decrease of 18 [4] - **Breeding Profits**: The spot breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets both decreased. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased from - 24.44 to - 74.11, a decrease of 49.66, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased from - 199.31 to - 236.57, a decrease of 37.25 [4] Slaughter and Price Difference - **Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume increased slightly from 152586 to 152651, an increase of 65 [4] - **Price Difference Changes**: The price differences between different sizes of pigs continued to widen, such as the difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing from 0.5 to 0.6, an increase of 0.1 [4] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - selling near - month contracts [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report, September 29, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure in the pig market persists, with the daily average price dropping from 12.20 to 11.68, a decrease of 0.52 [4]. - Pig futures prices have significantly declined, and due to continued supply pressure, the overall price trend is expected to be downward, with current prices likely to fluctuate [5]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Spot prices across the country continued to decline, with significant drops in Sichuan (-0.38), Fujian (-0.49), and other regions [4]. Futures Prices - All main futures contracts, such as LH01 (-315), LH03 (-205), and LH05 (-225), showed declines [4]. Breeding and Related Prices - Piglet and sow prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week, at 236 and 1588 respectively [4]. - Self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from -24.44 to -74.11, a decrease of 49.66; profit from purchasing piglets decreased from -199.31 to -236.57, a decrease of 37.25 [4]. Slaughter and Price Spreads - Slaughter volume increased from 165,179 to 169,930, an increase of 4,751 [4]. - Some price spreads, such as LH9 - 1 (increased by 220) and LH9 - 11 (increased by 185), showed significant changes [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell near - term contracts [6]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [6]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "Pig Daily Report - September 23, 2025" [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report by Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure in the live - pig market remains high, and the subsequent spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak, and the pig price is still under pressure due to large出栏 volume [3][4][6] - The downward pressure on live - pig futures prices continues to increase. The futures market reflects the supply pressure significantly, and the futures prices are expected to decline further, but the overall decline is limited due to the relatively low price level [6] Group 4: Price Data Summary Spot Prices - The average spot price of live pigs today is 12.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions saw price drops, such as Zhejiang with a 0.10 - yuan/kg decline [4] Futures Prices - All major futures contracts except LH09 declined. For example, LH01 dropped 130 points to 13215 [4] Sow/Piglet Prices - The piglet price this week is 236 yuan, down 22 yuan from last week, while the sow price remains unchanged at 1588 yuan [4] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread decreased by 220 to 1120, and LH9 - 1 spread increased by 130 to - 615 [4] Slaughter - end Data - The slaughter volume increased by 745 to 153993 heads [4] Size Pig Price Spreads - The spread between large - and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.01 to 0.14, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 to 0.26 [4] Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market - The scale enterprises' live - pig出栏 volume remains high, and ordinary farmers are also actively selling. The secondary - fattening inventory has decreased, but new entrants are increasing. The high出栏 weight and large inventory indicate that the supply pressure will continue, and the spot price will likely remain weak [4][6] Futures Market - The futures market reflects the supply pressure. The near - month contracts have fallen deeply, affecting the far - month contracts. The far - month contracts depend on capacity changes, and there are limited bullish factors. The overall decline of the futures price is restricted due to the low price level [6] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short - sell near - month contracts on price rebounds [7] - For arbitrage, conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7] - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [7]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "2025/9/22 Live Pig Daily Report" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Contact Information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to increase, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The futures price also faces downward pressure and is likely to decline [4][6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - Today's average spot price of live pigs is 12.43 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices are showing a downward trend [4]. Futures Price - All futures contracts show price declines. For example, LH01 dropped by 5 to 13345, and LH09 dropped by 385 to 12600 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 258 yuan, down 1 yuan from last week, and the sow price is 1588 yuan, down 2 yuan from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit from purchasing piglets is - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Slaughter Volume - Today's slaughter volume is 153248 heads, down 362 heads from yesterday [4]. Pig Price Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remains unchanged at 0.34; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs also remains unchanged at 0.24 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on the near - term contracts when prices rise [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 9 月 3 日 【生猪日报】供应压力继续体现 现货小幅回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/9/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 14.02 | 14.08 | -0.06 | 山西 （-100） | 13.61 | 13.77 | -0.16 | | 湖北（0） | 13.87 | 13.80 | 0.07 | 辽 宁 | 13.59 | 13.65 | -0.06 | | 安徽（200） | 14.18 | 14.25 | -0.07 | 吉林（-300） | 13.45 | 13.58 | -0.13 | | 湖南（100） | 13.83 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "【生猪日报】供应继续承压 盘面震荡运行" [5] - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply of live pigs continues to face pressure, and the spot price has limited upside potential with a risk of decline due to high inventory levels [3][6]. - The futures market has shown a decline, influenced by a high - level meeting with limited impact, and the price increase is restricted by supply and production pressure [6]. - The current price reflects the fundamentals of the pig market, with limited overall changes expected [6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of live pigs was 13.23 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions declined, with Inner Mongolia seeing the largest drop of 0.2 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Prices - Among futures contracts, LH07 rose 525 points to 14,525, while LH01 fell 95 points to 14,400 [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices dropped from 440 to 429, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1628 [3]. Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 90.89 to 62.16 yuan/head, and profits from purchasing piglets decreased from - 18.66 to - 71.39 yuan/head [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume decreased from 137,328 to 136,628 heads [3]. Contract Spreads - The spread of LH7 - 9 increased from - 125 to 375, and LH9 - 1 increased from - 370 to - 250 [3]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.41 to 0.4, and the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.06 to 0.1 [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Supply: After the previous price increase, the market supply situation has improved, but the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Scale enterprises may face some pressure to sell, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average [3]. - Price Outlook: The upside potential of spot prices is limited, and there is still pressure for a decline. The futures market is expected to have support, but near - month contracts may face pressure [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on far - month contracts at low prices and short near - month contracts at high prices [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Sell far - month put options [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply of the live - hog market remains relatively high, and the overall supply pressure may still need to be reflected. The live - hog price is expected to have certain downward pressure in the short term. Although the live - hog futures market showed a significant increase today, due to high production capacity, the subsequent price increase is difficult, and the futures price may also face downward pressure after short - term support [2][5]. 3. Summary according to the Directory Spot Information - **Spot Price**: The live - hog spot price declined slightly today. The market's slaughter rhythm changed little, and the supply situation improved compared to before. The monthly - scale enterprise's live - hog slaughter plan increased slightly month - on - month, and the slaughter motivation was average. The slaughter of ordinary farmers slowed down, and secondary fattening decreased significantly. The current market supply is still relatively large, and the live - hog slaughter weight remains high [2]. - **Mother Pig/Piglet Price**: The mother pig price was 1621 today, down 5 from last week; the piglet price was 465, down 16 from last week [2]. - **Contract Spread**: There were different changes in contract spreads. For example, LH7 - 9 was - 530 today, down 145 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 was 140 today, up 140 from yesterday [2]. - **Futures Price**: The live - hog futures price showed a significant increase today. For example, LH09 was 13750 today, up 150 from yesterday [2]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter volume was 143937 today, up 948 from yesterday [2]. - **Size Pig Spread**: The size pig spread changed slightly. For example, the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased from 0.05 to 0.07 [2]. Trading Strategy - **Single - Side**: Mainly in a volatile operation. - **Arbitrage**: LH79 reverse arbitrage. - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [6].