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现货阶段性稳定,盘面压力增加
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 13:37
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core View - The spot price of live pigs is stable in the short - term, but the pressure on the futures market is increasing. The overall supply of the live pig market is still sufficient, so the spot price is expected to decline in the long - run, and the futures price may be volatile in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Price - Today, live pig prices across China showed an upward trend. The average price was 11.62 yuan, up 0.1 yuan from yesterday. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume was stable overall, and the short - term market slaughter pressure was limited. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs decreased, and the overall slaughter pressure may improve. The number of second - fattening pigs entering the market continued to decrease, and the enthusiasm for replenishment decreased. The current average slaughter weight of live pigs rebounded, and the supply of large - weight pigs was still relatively large. The slowdown in the slaughter rhythm supported the pig price to some extent [3] Futures Price - Live pig futures prices showed a downward trend, while the spot price rebounded slightly. The large decline in the futures price earlier reflected the large supply pressure, but the spot price was stable. In the short - term, the monthly slaughter volume may increase, and the price will fluctuate. In the medium - and long - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to face downward pressure [5] Piglet and Sow Price - The price of piglets this week was 215 yuan, up 6 yuan from last week, and the price of sows remained unchanged at 1545 yuan [3] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 167.69 yuan, down 19.71 yuan from yesterday, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 259.39 yuan, down 10.57 yuan from yesterday [3] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 1333 heads to 183603 heads compared with yesterday [3] Price Difference - The price difference between different pig sizes changed. For example, the difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased by 0.03 to 0.53, while the difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreased by 0.04 to 0.29 [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell a wide straddle strategy [6]
生猪日报:供应压力有所好转,现货阶段性反弹-20251201
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 11:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of the live pig market has improved, and the spot price has rebounded periodically. However, due to the relatively high inventory and large average slaughter weight, the overall supply remains sufficient, and the subsequent spot price is expected to be weak. The futures price shows a slight oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term downward pressure is obvious, with limited rebound space [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Today, live pig prices across the country continued to rise. The出栏量 of large - scale enterprises decreased significantly, while the enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs remained high. The number of secondary fattening entries decreased, and the average slaughter weight rebounded, with a relatively large supply of heavy - weight pigs. The slowdown in the slaughter rhythm supported the pig price to some extent. It is expected that the supply pressure will continue, and the overall pig price will still face pressure [1] Futures Price - The live pig futures price showed a slight oscillation, and the market remained stable. The near - term price will oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term downward pressure is obvious, with limited rebound space [3] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]
生猪日报:供应压力增加,现货继续回落-20251125
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 10:15
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Livestock Daily] Supply Pressure Increases, Spot Prices Continue to Fall [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline slightly today. The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to continue, and the general trend of spot prices is expected to be weak. [2] - Live pig futures prices showed a slight oscillation, and the market remained stable overall. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, but in the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on futures prices. [4] Group 4: Spot Market Information Spot Prices - Today's prices in various regions showed a decline. For example, in Henan, the price dropped from 11.49 to 11.34, a decrease of 0.15. The average price remained unchanged at 11.62 [2]. Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglet prices remained at 209, and sow prices remained at 1546 this week [2]. Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 changed from - 930 to - 925, an increase of 5; LH9 - 1 changed from 2225 to 2300, an increase of 75 [2]. Futures Prices - Futures contracts like LH01 increased by 15, LH05 increased by 70, and LH07 increased by 95 [2]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 172,840 to 173,120, an increase of 280 [2]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.52 to 0.5, a decrease of 0.02; the spread between large - sized and medium - sized pigs remained at 0.31 [2]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Scale enterprises' overall live pig sales volume decreased, but the follow - up sales pressure is still expected to continue due to the slow progress in the early stage. The enthusiasm for sales among ordinary farmers has increased recently, and the overall sales pressure continues to be evident. [2] - The number of second - fattening entries has decreased recently. Due to the overall decline in the size - based pig price spread and the decrease in live pig prices, the enthusiasm for restocking has decreased compared to before. [2] - The current average weight of live pigs for sale has rebounded compared to before, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively high. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported pig prices to some extent. [2] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]
供应压力增加,价格继续回落
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 10:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the live pig market is increasing, and the prices of both spot and futures are showing a downward trend. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate, but in the medium - to long - term, the downward pressure on prices is obvious due to high inventory and large - weight pig supply [3][5]. - The profitability of live pig breeding has declined, with both self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding showing losses that have widened compared to the previous period [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Spot Market - **Price**: Today, the live pig prices across the country continued to decline. The average price remained unchanged at 11.29 yuan/kg, but most regional prices decreased, with Shandong having the largest decline of 0.37 yuan/kg [3]. - **Supply**: The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell has also decreased. The number of second - fattening entrants has decreased recently. The current live pig出栏体重 has rebounded, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively large [3]. - **Profit**: The spot breeding profit (self - breeding and self - raising) was - 114.81 yuan/head, a decrease of 25.60 yuan/head from the previous period; the spot breeding profit (purchasing piglets) was - 205.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 30.09 yuan/head from the previous period [3]. - **Slaughter**: The slaughter volume was 166,125 heads, a decrease of 416 heads from the previous day [3]. Futures Market - **Price**: Futures prices also showed a downward trend. For example, LH01 decreased by 80 yuan to 11,695 yuan, and LH03 decreased by 95 yuan to 11,470 yuan [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads between some contracts have changed. For example, LH9 - 1 increased by 70 to 1950, and LH11 - 1 increased by 80 to 105 [3]. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. - For options, a strategy of selling wide - straddles is recommended [6].
生猪日报:供应压力仍存,现货震荡运行-20251110
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:30
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pig Daily Report" and dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the pig industry [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The supply pressure in the pig market persists, with overall high pig inventory and large - weight pig supply. The spot price of pigs is expected to remain weak in the long - term, and the rebound space of both spot and futures prices is limited. The market will mainly show an oscillatory trend [3][5] Group 4: Spot Price Summary - Today, pig prices across the country are mainly oscillating. The average spot price has increased from 11.56 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.68 yuan/kg today. Scale enterprises' pig sales volume has limited changes, and the monthly pig sales plan remains high. Ordinary farmers' selling enthusiasm has decreased, and the second - fattening activity has also declined [3] Group 5: Futures Price Summary - Pig futures prices are rebounding, driven by spot prices. For example, LH01 increased from 11865 to 11955, and LH03 increased from 11465 to 11555. However, due to high inventory, the medium - term downward pressure on spot prices remains, and the rebound space of both spot and futures prices is limited [3][5] Group 6: Piglet and Sow Price Summary - This week, the piglet price remains at 198 yuan, and the sow price remains at 1546 yuan, showing no change from last week [3] Group 7: Breeding Profit Summary - The self - breeding and self - raising profit has increased slightly from - 89.33 yuan/head yesterday to - 89.21 yuan/head today, and the profit from purchasing piglets has increased from - 179.72 yuan/head to - 175.54 yuan/head [3] Group 8: Slaughter End Summary - The slaughter volume has decreased from 163190 heads yesterday to 162445 heads today, a decrease of 745 heads. The price difference between different - sized pigs has limited changes [3] Group 9: Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see; for options, a strategy of selling wide straddles is recommended [6]
生猪日报:供应压力仍存,现货继续回落-20251105
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market remains high, with continuous high monthly live pig slaughter volume and high live pig inventory and slaughter weight. The subsequent spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak, and there is still pressure on pig prices [3][4]. - The futures price of live pigs shows a rebound trend, but the subsequent supply pressure is still obvious. The spot price is mainly downward, and the recent rebound space of futures may be limited. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the spot prices of live pigs across the country have generally declined. The average price has dropped from 11.89 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.33 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Futures Price - The futures prices of most live pig contracts have risen. For example, LH01 has increased from 11,685 yuan to 11,945 yuan, an increase of 260 yuan; LH03 has increased from 11,360 yuan to 11,490 yuan, an increase of 130 yuan [3]. 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The price of piglets has increased from 175 yuan last week to 198 yuan this week, an increase of 23 yuan; the price of sows has increased from 1,545 yuan last week to 1,546 yuan this week, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising has increased from - 185.68 yuan to - 89.33 yuan, an increase of 96.35 yuan; the spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets has increased from - 289.07 yuan to - 179.72 yuan, an increase of 109.35 yuan [3]. 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume has increased from 158,004 heads yesterday to 159,258 heads today, an increase of 1,254 heads [3]. 3.6 Contract Spread - The spread of LH7 - 9 has decreased from - 790 yuan to - 795 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread of LH9 - 1 has decreased from 1,570 yuan to 1,495 yuan, a decrease of 75 yuan [3]. 3.7 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs has decreased from 0.4 yuan to 0.37 yuan, a decrease of 0.03 yuan; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs has increased from 0.61 yuan to 0.64 yuan, an increase of 0.03 yuan [3]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]
生猪日报:供应压力继续体现,现货价格回落-20251103
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 14:25
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3045719 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0015458 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply pressure in the pig market persists, with the spot price of pigs showing a downward trend, and the futures price mainly fluctuating [3][4] - The subsequent spot price of pigs is expected to remain weak, and the futures price is expected to have limited upward space and mainly fluctuate [3][4] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of pigs is 12.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.45 yuan/kg compared to yesterday. Prices in various regions have generally declined [3] Futures Prices - Most futures contract prices have fallen. For example, LH01 decreased by 80 to 11,735, and LH07 decreased by 105 to 12,410 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The piglet price this week is 175 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan compared to last week, and the sow price remains unchanged at 1545 yuan [3] Spot Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 89.33 yuan/head, an increase of 96.35 yuan/head compared to yesterday. The profit for purchasing piglets is - 179.72 yuan/head, an increase of 109.35 yuan/head compared to yesterday [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 158,597 heads, an increase of 1,157 heads compared to yesterday [3] Pig Price Spreads - The spreads between different types of pigs have changed. For example, the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.05 to 0.35 [3] Contract Spreads - Contract spreads have also changed. For example, the LH7 - 9 spread decreased by 65 to - 725 [3] Group 5: Market Situation Analysis Supply Side - Large - scale enterprises' pig出栏 volume continues to increase, and the overall supply pressure remains. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs has not changed much, and the recent存栏量 has decreased [3] - Secondary fattening存栏量 is increasing rapidly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is high due to the continuous increase in the price spread between large and small pigs [3] - The current出栏 weight of pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively abundant [3] Futures Market - The futures price of pigs has declined. The market is still worried about the subsequent release of production capacity. The previous decline in the futures price has fully reflected the negative factors [3][4] - In the context of continued supply pressure, the spot price is mainly downward, and the futures price is expected to have limited upward space and mainly fluctuate [3][4] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell wide - straddle strategy [5]
银河期货生猪日报-20251029
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 12:06
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: [Research Institute] Agricultural Products R & D Report - Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1][3] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall pig price in the country is in a volatile state today. The scale - enterprise's pig -出栏 volume continues to decline, and the overall supply pressure has improved compared with before. The ordinary farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs has not changed much, and the recent pig - selling volume has decreased. The second - fattening inventory is increasing rapidly, and the entry enthusiasm is high. The supply of large - weight pigs is still sufficient. The subsequent pig spot price is expected to be weak, and the pig price is still under pressure [3][4]. - The pig futures price is in a volatile state. The supply pressure has improved recently, and the futures' reaction to the spot price increase is limited. The far - month futures price begins to decline, and the market is worried about subsequent production capacity release. The futures price is expected to have limited upward space and will mainly operate in a volatile manner [4]. Group 4: Data Summaries Spot Price - Today's average pig spot price is 12.47 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in different regions show different changes, such as Hubei up 0.20 yuan/kg, Hunan up 0.29 yuan/kg, and Guangdong up 0.35 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Price - Futures contracts such as LH01, LH03, etc. show different price changes. For example, LH01 is up 25 yuan, and LH03 is down 50 yuan [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 174 yuan, up 9 yuan from last week; the sow price is 1545 yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising spot breeding profit is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.01 yuan from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan from yesterday [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 162,661 heads, down 1,215 heads from yesterday [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different futures contracts and different pig sizes show different changes, such as LH7 - 9 down 20 yuan, and the large - pig to standard - pig price spread up 0.07 yuan [3]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]
生猪日报:出栏小幅下降,现货略有反弹-20251016
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 14:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current supply pressure in the pig market remains significant, with high inventory levels and large weights of pigs for slaughter. The spot price of live pigs rebounded slightly today, but the overall scale of enterprise slaughter volume decreased slightly and remained at a high level. The slaughter volume this month continued to increase, and there was still pressure to meet the previous progress. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs is expected to remain relatively stable. Secondary fattening has started to show signs of entry, providing some support to prices. However, considering the high inventory and large weights of pigs, the supply pressure in the pig market is expected to persist, and the spot price is likely to decline in the future. The futures price of live pigs has dropped significantly, and the supply pressure remains. The limited rebound space of the spot price has also reduced its impact on the futures market. The far - month futures contracts are under pressure, and the overall futures market is expected to face certain downward pressure, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term downward trends [4][6]. Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Spot Price - The average spot price of live pigs today was 10.85 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices increased in all regions, with the largest increase of 0.2 yuan/kg in Guangdong and Yunnan [4]. 2. Futures Price - All futures contracts declined. LH01 decreased by 290 yuan to 11905 yuan, LH03 decreased by 125 yuan to 11540 yuan, LH05 decreased by 145 yuan to 12140 yuan, LH07 decreased by 205 yuan to 12925 yuan, LH09 decreased by 170 yuan to 13755 yuan, and LH11 decreased by 235 yuan to 11165 yuan [4]. 3. Piglet and Sow Prices - The price of piglets this week was 173 yuan, down 10 yuan from last week. The price of sows was 1545 yuan, down 18 yuan from last week [4]. 4. Breeding Profit - The profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 47.23 yuan from yesterday. The profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 41.63 yuan from yesterday [4]. 5. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today was 163263 heads, an increase of 999 heads from yesterday [4]. 6. Price Spread - The price spread between different futures contracts changed. For example, LH7 - 9 decreased by 35 to - 830, LH9 - 1 increased by 120 to 1850, LH9 - 11 increased by 65 to 2590, and LH11 - 1 increased by 55 to - 740. The price spread between large and small pigs also increased, with the spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increasing by 0.02 to 0.43, the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.01 to 0.22, the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs increasing by 0.04 to 0.52, and the spread between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.05 to 0.74 [4]. 7. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish strategy for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Conduct a reverse spread on LH15. - Options: Hold off on trading [7].
生猪日报:出栏继续维持高位,现货压力增加-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 10:07
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current high level of hog supply and large body weight continue to exert pressure on the market, with subsequent spot prices likely to decline, and the futures market also under pressure, showing short - term oscillations [2][4] - The short - term improvement in spot prices is mainly due to the entry of secondary fattening, but the overall fundamental improvement is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Market - Today's hog spot prices showed a slight rebound, with the average price remaining unchanged at 10.52 yuan. Among them, prices in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 11.19 yuan, while those in Liaoning increased by 0.13 yuan to 11.16 yuan. The overall supply pressure is high, with large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume increasing, and the overall slaughter volume remaining high. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers for slaughter is expected to remain relatively stable, and the supply of large - weight hogs is abundant [2] Futures Market - Hog futures prices rebounded slightly. LH01 rose 270 to 12405, and LH11 rose 325 to 11450. The far - month futures rebound space is limited due to relatively low costs and overall supply pressure. The current price is short - term oscillating, with subsequent pressure still existing [2][4] Sow/Piglet Market - This week, the piglet price was 173 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from last week, and the sow price was 1545 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan from last week [2] Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.23 yuan from the previous value, and the profit for purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.63 yuan from the previous value [2] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased by 489 to 159778 heads, and the price difference between large and small hogs continued to rebound, but the supply of large - weight hogs remained high [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for near - month contracts - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]