生猪日报 | 2025-08-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月21日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓741手，持仓约6.99万手，今日最高价 13815元/吨，最低价13725元/吨，收盘于13765元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150 ...

1、8月13日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓5348手，持仓约6.62万手，今日最高价 14240元/吨，最低价13975元/吨，收盘于14045元/吨。 生猪日报 | 2025-08-14 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）15 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is stabilizing and rebounding, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 12, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 410 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 1,419 lots today, with a position of approximately 60,900 lots. The highest price today was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,230 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: ① The weight reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, and the supply pressure has not been fully released; ② The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; ③ It is not yet the peak consumption season in the third quarter, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. - Bullish: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; ② The spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; ③ Although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually enter the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - View: Oscillatory adjustment. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector). With abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded. Seasonally, this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to a certain extent. - If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable in the future, the pig price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is beneficial to the November contract to a certain extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Live Pig Slaughter Price**: The national average price on August 12 was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.22%) from the previous day. The price in Henan was 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg (0.29%); the price in Sichuan was 13.31 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - **Futures Price**: The prices of most futures contracts showed an upward trend, with the 11 - contract rising by 90 yuan/ton (0.64%) to 14,230 yuan/ton. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (- 11.11%) from the previous day [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the hog market will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 4, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 300 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,721 lots today, with a position of approximately 40,000 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,940 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong toughness of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual arrival of the hog consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December based on sow and piglet data, making it difficult for hog prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the weight - reduction willingness of individual farmers and support hog prices. If the breeding side continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, hog prices may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended that previous short positions in the 09 contract can take profits and leave the market and wait and see temporarily [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 4, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan or 0.71% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.08 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.14% compared to the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan or 0.15% compared to the previous day [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts are provided [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, but the demand side also provides certain support, making it difficult for pig prices to rise or fall significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On July 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 447 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of live pigs have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is oscillating and adjusting. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,765 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots, a maximum price of 14,445 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,205 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,375 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season. The fat - to - standard pig price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand during the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current relationship between weight reduction and stable pig prices in the spot market indicates that demand supports pig prices, and it is also difficult for pig prices to fall significantly. The 2509 contract is almost at par with the price trough, and short - term price fluctuations are limited, so it is recommended to wait and see [4] Market Overview - On July 10, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.47% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg or 1.13%. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.44 yuan/kg. Among futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 09, and 11 contracts all increased, with increases of 0.73%, 0.27%, 0.53%, 0.77%, and 0.7% respectively, while the 07 contract decreased by 0.07% [6] Key Data Tracking - The content includes historical data on national live pig slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volume, white - strip pork average price, corn national grain depot purchase average price, and futures contract closing prices in the past 180 days, as well as the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [7][9][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of live pigs will experience a period of volatile adjustment, and suggests temporarily observing the LH2509 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On June 26, there were 750 registered live pig warehouse receipts [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery, while the far - month contracts fluctuate due to the current weight reduction being beneficial to the future market and the expected increase in future market supply [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 733 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,800 lots, a maximum price of 14,080 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,990 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,040 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes the potential for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the fact that although there will be an increase in future slaughter volume, it is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3] Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will experience volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The current live pig spot market shows a positive triangular relationship of "increasing slaughter volume - decreasing weight - stable pig prices", indicating certain support from the demand side. The LH2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and the current weight reduction in the breeding sector is beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, it is recommended to temporarily observe the LH2509 contract [4] Market Overview - On June 26, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.56 yuan/kg, a 0.55% increase from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 07 and 09 contracts increased, while the prices of the 01, 03, 05, and 11 contracts decreased [6] - The main basis in Henan increased by 15% to 920 yuan/ton [6] Key Data Tracking - The report presents data such as the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the price of the 2509 contract of live hogs is in a relatively reasonable range and recommends temporary observation, with an overall view of price oscillation adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 24, the national average price of live hog slaughter was 14.46 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day; the price in Henan was 14.74 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 07 contract rose 100 yuan to 13,550 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase; the 09 contract fell 40 yuan to 13,940 yuan/ton, a -0.29% decrease [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase is limited; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - The fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish factors include slow weight - reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish factors are the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the price will oscillate and adjust. The core logic is that with the expected increase in slaughter volume by December, the price is difficult to rise significantly; the current "slaughter volume increase - weight decrease - price stability" relationship in the spot market and the stable rebound of the price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs support the price, making it difficult to fall significantly; considering the current bullish and bearish factors, the 2509 contract price is in a reasonable range, so it is recommended to observe [4].