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生猪去化或将加速:——农林牧渔行业周报-20251110
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-10 11:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the de-stocking of live pigs may accelerate, with a focus on the value reassessment opportunities in the pig sector due to ongoing regulatory measures [3][4] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in its fundamentals, while the animal health sector is poised for performance recovery and advancements in African swine fever vaccine clinical trials [5][6] - The pet economy is thriving, with strong growth in domestic brands, indicating a rapid development phase for the pet industry [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - The swine industry is undergoing deepening regulatory measures aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. Short-term pressures on pig prices are anticipated due to increased market supply and inventory adjustments. The expectation is for a gradual policy approach rather than aggressive interventions [3][4][15] - Key companies recommended include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [4][25] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stockbreeding, as the industry navigates through low price periods [4][25] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector has seen revenue and profit growth among listed companies, with notable performances from Reap Bio and Keqian Bio. The clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are progressing, which may enhance market prospects [5][32] - Recommended companies include Keqian Bio, Reap Bio, and attention on Huazhong Bio and other related firms [5][32] 4. Planting - Grain prices are on the rise, with significant increases in corn and soybean meal prices noted. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, benefiting companies with early investments in research and development [7][37] - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][42] 5. Feed - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume. The concentration of the industry is expected to continue rising [8][43] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and Hefa Shares [8][45] 6. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in both dog and cat segments. The report emphasizes the rapid development of domestic brands in this sector [9][54] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with a focus on the medical segment as well [9][55]
双十一开启,关注宠物板块行情:农林牧渔行业周报-20251020
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-20 09:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].
如何看生猪板块持续性:——农林牧渔行业周报-20250922
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-22 14:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustment in the pig industry, highlighting the potential for value reassessment due to production capacity control and low-cost performance realization [3][16] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and price trends [4][29] - The animal health sector is witnessing a competitive landscape improvement and technological innovation, with several new products receiving clinical approval [5][37] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging, indicating sustained profitability improvements in the sector [9][59] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Continuous deepening of pig price control measures is noted, with a focus on maintaining prices within a reasonable range [3][16] - Current average pig price is 13.15 yuan/kg, with a slight weekly decline [15] - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with ongoing recommendations for Juxing Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][16] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment shows potential for improvement, with significant updates in breeding stock [4][29] - Current prices for white feather chicken and related products are stable, with slight fluctuations noted [27][28] Animal Health Industry - The competitive landscape is improving, with notable profit differentiation among leading companies [5][36] - Several new vaccines have received clinical approval, marking significant advancements in the sector [5][37] Planting Industry - Prices for corn and soybean meal have shown a week-on-week decline, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][42] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume [8][48] - Recommended companies include Haida Group, with a focus on rising industry concentration [8][49] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a notable increase in consumer spending on pets [9][58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on the growing pet medical segment [9][59]