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农林牧渔行业周报:亚宠展在即,关注宠物板块景气度变化-20250818
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-18 12:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the pig farming sector, the potential for valuation reassessment, and the strong growth in the pet economy, particularly for domestic brands [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The average price of pigs as of August 14, 2025, is 13.74 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28 CNY/kg. The price of 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head, down 33 CNY/head from the previous week [12]. - The report suggests that the swine industry is moving towards a self-regulatory and stabilizing phase, with top companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture being recommended for investment [12][5]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.60 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [21][22]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Huayuan Biological, Reap Biological, and Placo showing improved performance. The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use is seen as a significant technological advancement [33][5]. 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates an increase in soybean meal prices, with the average price reaching 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week. Companies involved in transgenic seed commercialization are recommended for investment [38][42]. 5. Feed Industry - Feed prices are fluctuating, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month. The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending companies like Haida Group [44][46]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet economy is booming, with the market size for pet consumption in urban areas projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 7.5%. Companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares are recommended for investment [53][54].
农林牧渔行业周报:生猪政策转向调控,板块迎来长期重估机会-20250804
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-04 13:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a long-term revaluation opportunity for the pig industry, indicating that while pig prices are experiencing fluctuations, there is still downward pressure. The industry is expected to transition towards a self-regulatory and stable phase, benefiting leading companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [4][14]. - The poultry sector is currently facing low prices, but there are signs of marginal improvement in the cycle, with recommendations for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. - The animal health sector is anticipated to see performance recovery and investment opportunities in pet medical services, with a focus on companies like Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua [6][34]. - The planting sector is experiencing a decline in the pig-to-grain price ratio, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds benefiting early adopters [7][37]. - The feed sector is witnessing price fluctuations, with recommendations for Haida Group and attention to He Feng Stock [7][42]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength, and the report recommends companies in the pet food sector such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average price of pigs is currently around 14.08 yuan/kg, with fluctuations noted [14]. - The number of breeding sows has increased slightly, indicating a stable supply [14]. - Key recommendations include Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture, with a suggestion to pay attention to Dekang Agriculture [4][14]. Poultry Industry - The price of white feather chicken is low, with a focus on potential marginal improvements in the cycle [5][23]. - The report notes a significant update in the breeding stock, with a mix of imported and self-bred varieties [5][24]. - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [5][24]. Animal Health - The report anticipates continued recovery in animal health companies' performance, supported by stable profits in the pig farming sector [6][34]. - The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use marks a significant technological advancement [6][34]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipuhua, with additional attention to Huisheng Biological and Jinhai Biological [6][34]. Planting Sector - The pig-to-grain price ratio has decreased, with ongoing commercialization of genetically modified seeds [7][37]. - Recommendations include Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [7][37]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with specific prices noted for different types of feed [7][42]. - The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending Haida Group and monitoring He Feng Stock [7][42]. Pet Industry - The pet market is growing, with a significant increase in consumption and brand development [7][51]. - Recommendations include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Stock, and Peidi Stock in the pet food sector, as well as Ruipuhua in the pet medical sector [7][51].
农林牧渔行业周报:宠物保持高景气度,生猪板块布局底部-20250630
Guohai Securities· 2025-06-30 13:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][61]. Core Views - The report highlights that the pig price may experience a turning point due to seasonal factors and policy changes, suggesting a bottoming out phase for the sector [2][12]. - The poultry sector is seeing price declines, but there are signs of marginal improvements in the cycle [3][24]. - The animal health sector is expected to see performance recovery, and there are investment opportunities in the pet medical industry [4][35]. - The planting sector is witnessing a week-on-week rebound in grain prices [5][43]. - The feed sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a general downward trend [6][46]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength [7][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - The average pig price is currently fluctuating between 14-15 CNY/kg, with a notable increase in average weights compared to previous years [11][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with low costs and strong financial health, such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [12][61]. Poultry Industry - The poultry prices are declining, with the white feather chicken price at 3.48 CNY/jin, showing a slight decrease [24][25]. - The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Yisheng Livestock, while suggesting to pay attention to He Feng and Minhe Livestock [25][61]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is expected to recover, supported by the profitability of the pig farming industry [35][36]. - The pet medical market is projected to grow, with a market size of approximately 840 billion CNY, representing 28% of the pet industry [4][35]. Planting Sector - Grain prices are showing a week-on-week increase, with corn priced at 2353 CNY/ton and wheat at 2446 CNY/ton [43][44]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-tech [43][61]. Feed Sector - Feed prices are experiencing a downward trend, with pig feed at 3.36 CNY/kg [46][47]. - The report recommends Hai Da Group and suggests paying attention to He Feng [47][61]. Pet Industry - The pet market is expected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [51][52]. - The report recommends companies in the pet food sector like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and in the pet medical sector, it recommends Ruipu Biological [55][61].
农林牧渔行业周报:一季报业绩亮眼,长期看好宠物赛道-20250428
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-28 14:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]
农林牧渔行业周报:关注贸易冲突背景下粮食安全-20250414
Guohai Securities· 2025-04-14 10:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]