今日三大指数集体低开，全天延续震荡调整走势。沪指跌超2%失守3900点。截至收盘，沪指跌 2.45%，深证成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。沪深两市成交额1.97万亿，较上一个交易日放量2575 亿。 Wind统计显示，两市及北交所共351只股票上涨，5071只股票下跌，平盘有26只股票。 种业概念逆市走强，荃银高科涨超16%。水产品概念反复活跃，中水渔业、獐子岛涨停。Sora概念异动 拉升，视觉中国、易点天下涨停。 锂矿、盐湖提锂概念大幅走弱，大中矿业、西藏矿业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盛新锂能、金圆股份等多 股跌停。有机硅概念下挫，晨光新材跌停。 此外，互联网、传媒娱乐等板块涨幅居前；有色、化工、半导体、电气设备等板块跌幅居前。 传媒股午后大幅拉升，农业股一度走强 在板块方面，传媒股午后大幅拉升，易点天下（301171）、欢瑞世纪（000892）、新华都（002264）、 贵广网络（600996）、视觉中国（000681）等涨停或涨超10%，富春股份（300299）、福石控股 家用电器一度走强，禾盛新材（002290）、奥普科技（603551）、三花智控（002050）等涨超1%，海 尔智家（60069 ...

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural stocks experienced a significant rally on the 21st, with notable performances in the seed and aquaculture sectors, indicating a potential turning point in the industry by 2026 [1] Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - Stocks such as QuanYin High-Tech and QiuLe Seed Industry reached a 20% and over 10% increase respectively, while ZhongShui Fishery achieved a six-day consecutive limit-up [1] - The industry is expected to focus on capturing turning points and tracking core fundamental indicators in 2026, with an emphasis on finding entry points within a relatively reasonable valuation range [1] Group 2: Livestock and Pet Sectors - The livestock sector is expected to balance offense and defense strategies, with a shift from a defensive focus in 2025 to a greater emphasis on potential future flexibility in 2026 [1] - The pet sector is undergoing a valuation correction, with expectations for a recovery in performance growth, suggesting that investment opportunities will re-emerge [1] Group 3: Seed Industry Insights - According to KaiYuan Securities, the seed industry is expected to trend towards larger varieties under policy guidance, with an improving competitive landscape for leading seed companies [1] - The research and development of genetically modified seeds presents high technical barriers, giving leading companies a competitive edge as the promotion and expansion of these seeds accelerate, potentially intensifying the industry’s Matthew effect [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the de-stocking of live pigs may accelerate, with a focus on the value reassessment opportunities in the pig sector due to ongoing regulatory measures [3][4] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in its fundamentals, while the animal health sector is poised for performance recovery and advancements in African swine fever vaccine clinical trials [5][6] - The pet economy is thriving, with strong growth in domestic brands, indicating a rapid development phase for the pet industry [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - The swine industry is undergoing deepening regulatory measures aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. Short-term pressures on pig prices are anticipated due to increased market supply and inventory adjustments. The expectation is for a gradual policy approach rather than aggressive interventions [3][4][15] - Key companies recommended include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [4][25] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stockbreeding, as the industry navigates through low price periods [4][25] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector has seen revenue and profit growth among listed companies, with notable performances from Reap Bio and Keqian Bio. The clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are progressing, which may enhance market prospects [5][32] - Recommended companies include Keqian Bio, Reap Bio, and attention on Huazhong Bio and other related firms [5][32] 4. Planting - Grain prices are on the rise, with significant increases in corn and soybean meal prices noted. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, benefiting companies with early investments in research and development [7][37] - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][42] 5. Feed - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume. The concentration of the industry is expected to continue rising [8][43] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and Hefa Shares [8][45] 6. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in both dog and cat segments. The report emphasizes the rapid development of domestic brands in this sector [9][54] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with a focus on the medical segment as well [9][55]

Core Viewpoint - The corn seed industry is facing supply-demand imbalance and intense competition, leading to significant revenue declines for multiple companies, including Donghai Seed Industry, which reported its first-ever half-year net profit loss since its listing [1][2]. Company Summary - Donghai Seed Industry's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 369 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.41%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35.11 million yuan, down 33.42% [1][2]. - The company's net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses was -432.61 thousand yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss for the first time since its listing [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to lower corn prices, insufficient market confidence, and a supply surplus, alongside challenges from diseases and market preferences for dense planting varieties [2][3]. - Donghai Seed Industry primarily engages in hybrid corn seed business, with corn seed revenue accounting for approximately 90% of total revenue, focusing on varieties like "Donghai" and "Xianyu" [2]. Industry Summary - The corn seed industry is experiencing a widespread downturn, with many listed seed companies reporting revenue declines in their corn seed businesses during the first half of the year [3]. - The industry is undergoing a phase of "de-stocking, structural adjustment, and value creation," indicating a challenging environment for seed companies [3]. - Despite a stabilization in corn spot prices, seed prices are expected to recover slowly, with traditional varieties facing dual pressures from de-stocking and price competition [3]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional seeds to genetically modified and dense planting varieties, with companies that have a first-mover advantage likely to increase their market share [3]. - Donghai Seed Industry has already made advancements in genetically modified varieties, with six nationally approved corn GM varieties, including Donghai 605D, and is seeing gradual sales increases [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longping High-Tech (隆平高科) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to the sluggish corn industry in Brazil, while domestic seed performance remains stable. The revenue for 2024 is reported at 8.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.13%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is 114 million yuan, down 43.08% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.409 billion yuan, a decline of 32.03% year-on-year, primarily due to weak sales of corn seeds in Brazil. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 348 million, 404 million, and 502 million yuan respectively for those years. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 38.9, 33.6, and 27.0 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for gradual performance recovery as the Brazilian corn market improves and domestic transgenic seed business expands [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue breakdown shows corn seed revenue at 5.021 billion yuan (down 16.74%), rice seed revenue at 2.008 billion yuan (up 12.97%), and vegetable seeds at 321 million yuan (up 0.69%). The company maintains a leading market share in hybrid rice, with seven of the top ten varieties in the national promotion area, and three of the top ten corn varieties [5][6]. - The company has received 113 authorized plant variety rights in 2024, with significant contributions from rice and corn varieties. The total number of authorized plant variety rights has reached 979, showcasing the company's strong R&D capabilities [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a revenue forecast of 9.476 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 348 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from the previous year's losses. The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 37.2% in 2025, with a net margin of 3.7% [8][10]. - The company's valuation metrics show a PE ratio decreasing from 119.0 in 2024 to 38.9 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings are expected to recover [8][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]