Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 300,000 shares on March 25, with a total net reduction of 3.146 million shares over the past five trading days and 7.476 million shares over the past twenty trading days [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 66.7061 million shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.84% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited primarily engages in the exploration and sale of natural resources, operating through four segments: crude oil, electrolytic aluminum, coal, and import/export of goods [1] - The crude oil segment focuses on operating oil fields and selling crude oil in Indonesia and China [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia [1] - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia [1] - The import/export segment is involved in the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 556,000 shares on March 16, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 3.39 million shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for all 20 days, with a cumulative net reduction of 7.048 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 67.4161 million shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.85% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: - The crude oil segment focuses on oilfield operations and crude oil sales in Indonesia and China [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia [1] - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia [1] - The import and export goods segment is involved in the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is expected to cool down, and the crude oil sector is oscillating at a high level. Against the background of low profits in various polyolefin processes, the short - term rebound of polyethylene (PE) is weaker than that of polypropylene (PP) due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large import volume. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the profit of BOPP in the demand side is better than in previous years, which may become an important marginal variable in the demand side. The relief of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17] - This week's forecast: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (LL2605) is (8600 - 8900); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is also (8600 - 8900). The recommended strategy is to gradually take profit on the long position of PP2605 - PP2609 (positive spread strategy) [17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is cooling down, and the crude oil sector is oscillating at a high level. In terms of valuation, the weekly increase of polyethylene is (spot > futures > cost), and that of polypropylene is also (spot > futures > cost). In the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil rose by 16.86%, Brent crude oil rose by 13.00%, coal price fell by - 2.52%, methanol rose by 6.90%, ethylene rose by 19.80%, propylene rose by 12.96%, and propane rose by 6.85%. The cost side rebounded [15] - **Supply Side**: The PE capacity utilization rate is 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.72%, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.78%, and a decrease of - 12.34% compared with the five - year average. The PP capacity utilization rate is 68.42%, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.05%, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.21%, and a decrease of - 17.20% compared with the five - year average [15] - **Import and Export**: In December, the domestic PE import was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.05% and a year - on - year decrease of - 21.44%. The domestic PP import was 205,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. The import profit decreased, and the PE supply from North America decreased, reducing the import pressure. In December, the PE export was 63,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 10.00% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. The PP export was 230,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate puts pressure on the import side [15] - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 30.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.82% and a year - on - year decrease of - 22.34%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 24.85% and a year - on - year decrease of - 7.58%. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the downstream operating rate of polyolefins rebounds [16] - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 575,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 4.13%; the inventory of PE traders is 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.39%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 680,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80% and a year - on - year decrease of - 2.31%; the inventory of PP traders is 206,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.08%; the PP port inventory is 74,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.23%. Coal - based enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory [16] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of LLDPE and PP, including the historical data from 2022 to 2026 [30][42] 3.3 Cost Side - The oil - based cost has increased significantly. Multiple charts show the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as the cracking spread of gasoline, the price of P/N/C, the registered warehouse receipts of LPG, and other cost - related indicators [69][73] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 80.00% for oil - based, 12.00% for light hydrocarbon - based, 5.00% for coal - based, 2.00% for methanol, and 1.00% for purchased ethylene [127] - **Production Capacity and Output**: The planned domestic PE production capacity to be put into operation in 2026 is 520,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, output, and other indicators of PE are also presented through charts [131][132] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: The coal - based inventory of PE has risen and then fallen. The report shows the inventory of production enterprises, two - oil enterprises, coal - based enterprises, and traders through charts [154][155] - **Import - Export**: The import sources, import volume, and import profit of LLDPE are presented through charts [158][160] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand of LLDPE is mainly for packaging film (51.00%), followed by hollow (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural film (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%) [165] - **Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory**: The downstream total operating rate, the available days of packaging film, the order days of agricultural film, the raw material inventory, and the finished product inventory of PE are presented through charts [174][177] 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PP production is 53.00% for oil - based, 25.00% for PDH - based, 18.00% for coal - based, 2.00% for methanol, and 2.00% for purchased propylene [186] - **Production Capacity and Output**: The planned domestic PP production capacity to be put into operation in 2026 is 437,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, output, and other indicators of PP are also presented through charts [191][193] 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: The report shows the inventory of production enterprises, two - oil enterprises, coal - based enterprises, PDH - based enterprises, traders, and ports of PP through charts [203][206] - **Import - Export**: The import volume, import profit, export country composition, export volume, and export profit of PP are presented through charts [217][220] 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - **Downstream Demand Proportion**: The downstream demand of PP is mainly for drawing (34.00%), followed by high - and low - melt copolymer (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fiber (6.00%), transparent material (5.00%), pipes (hot and cold water) (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%) [225] - **Downstream Operating Rate and Inventory**: The downstream total operating rate, the operating rate of injection molding, pipes, and plastic weaving, as well as the raw material inventory and finished product inventory of plastic weaving and BOPP of PP are presented through charts [235][244]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 1.852 million shares on March 11 [1] - Over the past 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 2.942 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 20 days, with a total net reduction of 6.512 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 6.79721 million shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.86% of the company's issued ordinary shares [1] - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: crude oil, electrolytic aluminum, coal, and import/export of goods [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Middle East geopolitical conflicts have escalated, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices, and polyolefins have followed suit. The overall profit of polyolefins has decreased considerably, and there is no new production planned before the 05 contract. The profit of BOPP on the demand side has recovered, and the order volume is better than the same period. Therefore, the positive spread trading between PP2605 and PP2609 has accelerated [15][16]. - The next - month forecast for polyethylene (L2605) suggests a reference trading range of 7400 - 7700, and for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 7400 - 7700 [16]. - The recommended strategy is to buy the spread between PP2605 - 2609 at low prices [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Middle East geopolitical conflicts have escalated, with a significant increase in crude oil prices and polyolefins following [15]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil rose 18.11%, Brent crude oil rose 20.90%, coal price rose 10.17%, methanol rose 13.93%, ethylene fell - 10.75%, propylene rose 9.01%, and propane rose 28.46% [15]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization was 86.73%, up 0.50% month - on - month, 0.83% year - on - year, and down - 4.83% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 73.61%, up 0.03% month - on - month, down - 10.12% year - on - year, and down - 13.00% compared to the 5 - year average. There is no new capacity plan for the polyolefin 2605 contract, and there is a production cut expectation under the low - profit background [15]. - **Imports and Exports**: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.041 million tons, down - 7.05% month - on - month and - 21.44% year - on - year. In September, domestic PP imports were 205,800 tons, down - 4.83% month - on - month and - 4.83% year - on - year. The export season has arrived. In December, PE exports were 63,000 tons, down - 10.00% month - on - month and up 8.87% year - on - year. PP exports were 230,500 tons, up 2.89% month - on - month and 29.81% year - on - year [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE was 20%, down - 40.71% month - on - month and - 44.52% year - on - year. The downstream operating rate of PP was 36.74%, down - 29.45% month - on - month and - 25.11% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate rebounded from a low level. The profit of BOPP was better than in previous years, and the order volume was also prominent, which may become an important marginal variable on the PP demand side [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE producers was 536,200 tons, up 41.22% month - on - month and down - 3.53% compared to the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders was 57,700 tons, up 148.51% month - on - month and 23.09% compared to the same period last year; the inventory of PP producers was 655,100 tons, up 57.55% month - on - month and down - 7.52% compared to the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders was 212,600 tons, up 16.05% month - on - month and 20.80% compared to the same period last year; the PP port inventory was 81,400 tons, up 27.79% month - on - month and 9.56% compared to the same period last year [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy the spread between PP2605 - 2609 at low prices [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the term structure, main contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and virtual - to - real ratios of LLDPE and PP, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc., and the import and export price differentials and volumes [33][46][62][69][71]. 3.3 Cost Side - Oil - based costs have increased significantly. WTI and Brent crude oil prices have risen, along with coal, methanol, propylene, and propane prices, while ethylene prices have fallen [15][79]. - LPG import freight rates have increased significantly [98]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light hydrocarbon - based, and their proportions are presented [129]. - In 2026, there are multiple domestic PE production projects planned, with a total of 50 tons already in production and 520 tons yet to be put into production [132]. - The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PE are also presented [133][135]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Imports and Exports - Charts show the total inventory, producer inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE [142][143][148]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for PE mainly includes packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc., and their proportions are presented [155]. - The CPI and downstream demand cumulative year - on - year data are shown, as well as the operating rates and inventory data of various downstream sectors [159][161]. 3.7 Polypropylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PP include oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, externally procured propylene - based, and methanol - based, and their proportions are presented [180]. - In 2026, there are multiple domestic PP production projects planned, with 0 tons already in production and 437 tons yet to be put into production [182]. - The capacity utilization rate and maintenance loss volume of PP are also presented [186]. 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory & Imports and Exports - Charts show the total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, port inventory, export volume, and export destination proportion of PP [190][194][199]. 3.9 Polypropylene Demand Side - The downstream demand for PP mainly includes拉丝, high - and low - melt copolymers, injection molding, BOPP, etc., and their proportions are presented [205]. - The operating rates, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory data of various downstream sectors are shown [209][212][215][217].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 712,000 shares on March 5, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] - Over the past five trading days, southbound funds have net sold a total of 1,116,000 shares of CITIC Resources, while in the last twenty trading days, the total net reduction reached 4,772,000 shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 6,985,210 shares of CITIC Resources, which represents 0.88% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited primarily engages in the exploration and sale of natural resources, operating through four main divisions [1] - The oil division focuses on operating oil fields and selling crude oil in Indonesia and China [1] - The electrolytic aluminum division operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia [1] - The coal division manages coal mines and sales operations in Australia [1] - The import and export goods division is involved in the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 242,000 shares on February 27, with a total net reduction of 414,000 shares over the last five trading days and 4,068,000 shares over the last twenty trading days [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 70,564,100 shares of CITIC Resources, which represents 0.89% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited primarily engages in the exploration and sale of natural resources through four divisions: the crude oil division operates oil fields and sells crude oil in Indonesia and China; the electrolytic aluminum division manages aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia; the coal division operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia; and the import and export goods division focuses on importing other goods and manufactured products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have reduced their holdings in CITIC Resources (01205.HK) by 108,000 shares on February 26, indicating a trend of net selling over recent trading days [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - In the last 5 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 5 days, with a total net reduction of 206,000 shares [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for 20 days, with a cumulative net reduction of 3,976,000 shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 70,806,100 shares of CITIC Resources, accounting for 0.89% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CITIC Resources Holdings Limited is primarily engaged in the exploration and sale of natural resources [1] - The company operates through four segments: - The crude oil segment focuses on oilfield operations and crude oil sales in Indonesia and China - The electrolytic aluminum segment operates aluminum smelting plants and sells aluminum ingots in Australia - The coal segment operates coal mines and sells coal in Australia - The import and export segment deals with the import of other goods and manufactured products [1]

Core Viewpoints - January inflation shows divergence, influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, external factors driving increases, and weak demand [2][8] - The decline in PPI has narrowed significantly, primarily due to the increased impact of copper prices and some influence from the base period rotation [2][8] - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [2][8] PPI Analysis - The base period rotation, which occurs every five years, will see a new adjustment starting in 2026, but its impact on monthly PPI year-on-year is minimal at about 0.08 percentage points [2][8] - The rise in copper prices in January was significant, with a month-on-month increase of 9.3%, contributing to a 0.5% increase in PPI [2][8] - Prices in the non-ferrous mining and processing sectors rose by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, making them the strongest contributors to the PPI increase [2][8] Commodity Price Trends - In contrast, prices for major commodities like crude oil and coal showed weakness, with crude oil prices down 3.1% and refined oil product prices down 2.5%, negatively impacting PPI by -0.08% and -0.15% respectively [12][71] - The utilization rate in downstream sectors has not improved significantly, limiting the upward price transmission from upstream to downstream [12][71] CPI Analysis - The misalignment of the Spring Festival led to a significant year-on-year decline in CPI, which fell by 0.6 percentage points to 0.2% [3][17] - The month-on-month CPI increase was only 0.2%, notably lower than the previous year's pre-Spring Festival performance of 0.6%, indicating overall weakness in CPI [3][17] - Food CPI saw a substantial decline, dropping by 1.8 percentage points to -0.7%, influenced by high pig inventory levels keeping pork prices low [3][17] Core CPI Insights - Excluding the impact of gold prices, the core CPI also showed weakness, falling by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% [24][72] - The price of gold jewelry rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 77.4%, while other core goods CPI fell by 1 percentage point to -1.7% [24][72] Service CPI Trends - The service CPI was weaker than in previous years, likely due to an early "return home" trend for the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points to 0.1% [4][28] - Rent demand remains weak, causing the rent CPI to continue its decline, down 0.1 percentage points to -0.4% [4][28] - Core service CPI also showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, lower than the previous year's performance of 0.6% [4][28] Future Outlook - The performance of downstream prices will be more critical than the impact of upstream price increases, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of anti-involution policies in the downstream sector [39][73] - Despite potential continued increases in commodity prices, the transmission of upstream price increases to downstream sectors remains obstructed, limiting the recovery of PPI [39][73] - For CPI, the low base in February, combined with high gold prices and improvements in service consumption, may lead to a significant rebound, potentially resulting in a "V-shaped" trend early in the year [39][73]

Group 1: Production Trends - In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The average PMI over the past two months shows a recovery trend, rising 0.5 percentage points to 49.7% compared to November 2025[14] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in the metallurgical chain increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 1%[21] Group 2: Demand Insights - Export activity is expected to remain strong due to a delayed Spring Festival, with foreign trade cargo volume increasing by 13.9% year-on-year in the weeks leading up to the festival[5] - Retail sales are projected to see a slight rebound of approximately 1.9% in January-February 2026, supported by extended holiday periods and local consumption stimulus policies[39] - The government has introduced significant consumption vouchers in various regions, with Henan and Hubei issuing a total of 2 billion yuan in vouchers to stimulate spending[42] Group 3: Price Dynamics - The PPI is expected to show weak recovery, with January PPI at -1.4% year-on-year, reflecting limited transmission of upstream price increases to downstream sectors[59] - CPI is anticipated to exhibit a "V-shaped" trend, with January CPI declining to 0.2% year-on-year, but expected to rebound significantly in February due to seasonal factors[64] - Core CPI, excluding gold and silver, is likely to remain low due to weak demand and reduced government subsidies[64]