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甲醇日评:内地煤制甲醇供应逐步增加-20250814
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 05:11
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating of the Industry - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. In terms of valuation, upstream coal - based profits are still relatively high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor but have room for repair, so methanol valuation is relatively high. Regarding the driving factors, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production as the proportion of old - fashioned production facilities is small, and there is no expectation of a significant reduction in methanol supply. Currently, the supply of coal - based methanol in the inland area is gradually increasing, and downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, making further inventory building unlikely. It is highly probable that the port will continue to accumulate inventory, which will put pressure on spot prices in East China. After the influence of coking coal sentiment weakens, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2496.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 17.00 yuan/ton or - 0.68% from August 12 [1]. - MA05 closed at 2461.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 4.00 yuan/ton or - 0.16% from August 12 [1]. - MA09 closed at 2391.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 16.00 yuan/ton or - 0.67% from August 12 [1] 2. Methanol Spot Prices - The spot price in Taicang was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1]. - In Shandong, it was 2355.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 5.00 yuan/ton or 0.21% from August 12 [1]. - In Guangdong, it was 2375.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.50 yuan/ton or - 0.32% from August 12 [1] 3. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - The spot price of Ordos Q5500 coal was 510.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.49% from August 12 [1]. - The spot price of Datong Q5500 coal was 570.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 17.50 yuan/ton or 3.07% from August 12 [1]. - The industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter on August 13, 2025, unchanged from August 12 [1] 4. Methanol Profit Situation - The profit of coal - based methanol was 452.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 13.70 yuan/ton or 3.12% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of natural gas - based methanol was - 432.00 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 4.63% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of Northwest MTO was - 33.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 40.40 yuan/ton or - 183.17% from August 12 [1] 5. Methanol Downstream Profit - The profit of acetic acid was 204.54 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, up 4.15 yuan/ton or 2.07% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of MTBE was 105.88 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 7.52 yuan/ton or - 7.10% from August 12 [1]. - The profit of formaldehyde was - 301.60 yuan/ton on August 13, 2025, down 9.60 yuan/ton or - 3.18% from August 12 [1] 6. Important Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2375 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 271,458 lots and an open interest of 308,231, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - In the Middle East, a 1 - million - ton methanol plant has resumed normal operation in the past two days, and some other plants are increasing their loads. The overall daily production in a certain Middle Eastern country has increased recently [1]