| | | | 甲醇日评20250930:假期注意持仓风险 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/26 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) | | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2359.00 | 2355.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | | MA05 元/吨 | 2388.00 | 2384.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | (收盘价) | | MA09 元/吨 | 2345.00 | 2343.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2250.00 | 2257.50 | -7.50 | -0.33% | | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | 广东 元/吨 | 2260.00 | 2265.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests that due to the increase in holiday overseas oil prices caused by intensified geopolitical conflicts, methanol is expected to open higher and may have a short - term rebound. However, it lacks upward momentum in the long run. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, and cost collapse still weighs heavily on coal - chemical products. But it is relatively inexpensive compared to downstream polyalkanes, and there is room for valuation repair. In terms of driving factors, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its fundamentals. Supply, including imports and inland supply, has rebounded rapidly, while demand has limited room for further growth, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation and insufficient upward momentum. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.61%) to 2275 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2217 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 2208 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 2242.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.11%) to 2267.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shaanxi remained unchanged at 1955 yuan/ton; the price in Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged at 2210 yuan/ton; the price in Hubei remained unchanged at 2245 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.27%) to 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 26.5 to - 32.5 [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and natural gas prices remained unchanged, including Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 at 470 yuan/ton, Yulin Q6000 at 492.5 yuan/ton, industrial natural gas in Hohhot at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and in Chongqing at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 309.7 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 520 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at 619 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 26.5 yuan/ton (-11.06%) to - 266.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 595.43 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-9.44%) to 287.76 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 181.20 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2220 yuan/ton, closing at 2208 yuan/ton, rising 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 701,459 lots and an open interest of 824,339 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 251 - 256 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 1.3 - 1.6% compared to the previous period, and there were no reported real - deal transactions within the week. For other Middle - Eastern regions, the reference negotiation price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.5 - 1.1%, and methanol factories in other Middle - Eastern regions intended to set higher prices for product sales. Attention should be paid to the latest methanol tender results and shipping capacity of some factories in other Middle - Eastern regions [1]. c. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the increase in overseas oil prices during the holiday will drive methanol to open higher and may lead to a short - term rebound. However, methanol lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1].