1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, and the weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm. The inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2172 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 27 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 797,941 lots, down 57,443 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 110,375 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,748, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest spread is 220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 37 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 248 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 252 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons. The methanol import profit is 3.14 yuan/ton, down 2.05 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.52%, up 0.71%. [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.58%, up 1.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.09%, down 1.89%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.51%, up 2.62%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, down 0.85%; the olefin operating rate is 89.51%, down 0.44%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1038 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.78%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.81%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.07%, up 0.3% [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 40.40 tons, up 1.28 tons, a 3.28% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 19.36 tons, down 2.68 tons, a 12.16% decrease. The total methanol port inventory is 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons. The inventory in East China has increased, and in South China, it has decreased [2]. - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 89.49%, a 0.71% decrease. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continue to be shut down, and the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry has decreased [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol rebounded from a low level due to the gradual maintenance of Iranian facilities and significant destocking at ports, which led to the concentrated exit of short - sellers and a resonance - style rise in futures and spot prices. In the medium - term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 - contract methanol remains the main contradiction, and the high daily output and high import volume may limit the upside price space of the 01 - contract in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental pattern of methanol may improve in the first quarter. The current fundamental pressure level for methanol is 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton, and if methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan, which is around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,135 yuan/ton, up from 2,114 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 2,126 yuan/ton, up from 2,117 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 943,772 lots, down from 1,682,067 lots; the open interest of the 01 - contract was 1,048,788 lots, down 55,870 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 2,006,620 ten - thousand yuan, down 1,554,224 ten - thousand yuan; the basis was - 25, down from - 9; the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 84, up from - 94 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2060.77, up 2.24. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2110, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1992.5, up 2.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 1 to 25 yuan/ton. The methanol futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot market was for rigid - demand negotiations, with far - month futures - spot trading as the main activity. The basis remained stable and weak. The inland methanol market atmosphere was still active, the auction transactions were optimistic, and the freight prices increased in some areas. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand on Friday, and the traders reported quantities actively, with the transaction prices rising slightly within the week [3]. 3.3. Inventory Situation - As of November 26, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 million tons, a decrease of 11.58 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.83%. The overall unloading of foreign vessels at ports was lower than expected, and only 15.20 million tons of visible unloading was recorded during the period. Supported by reverse flow, the提货 at the riverside warehouses in Jiangsu was good, and the load of some major downstream enterprises increased slightly; the rigid demand in Zhejiang was stable. The inventory at South China ports continued to be destocked. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic trade vessels arrived at ports during the week, and the提货 at the mainstream storage areas was stable, resulting in continuous destocking. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at ports, and the inventory decreased under stable consumption by downstream enterprises [3].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The methanol market continues to oscillate. The international device operating rate has declined, and some devices in Iran have shut down due to gas restrictions. The port inventory has decreased, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is stable, and the inland MTO operation is stable. The price of methanol in the inland area is relatively firm recently. The impact of domestic commodities' wide - range oscillation on methanol futures has weakened [4]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2114 (+25/+1.2%). The spot market had different quotes in various regions, with production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Guanzhong, and consumption areas like Shandong and Hebei having their respective prices, and ports including Taicang, Ningbo, and Guangzhou also showing different levels [2]. Important Information - From November 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply remains abundant. The import price in US dollars has rebounded, and the import profit margin has continued to expand. The external market's operating rate has increased at a high level [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices operating stably or at partial loads [4]. - Inventory: The port's inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Close short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. The current methanol valuation is at a relatively low level. It is not recommended to continue short - selling from the valuation perspective. The upward driving force is limited, mainly due to the less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Profit Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2055 yuan/ton to 2029 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.27%; MA05 decreased from 2163 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%; MA09 decreased from 2202 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.09% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, with Shaanxi having the largest decline of 2.06% from 1945 yuan/ton to 1905 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit Situations**: Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. Northwest MTO profit decreased by 11.60%, while East China MTO profit increased by 15.27%. Acetic acid profit increased by 3.07%, and MTBE profit decreased by 16.99% [1] 2. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened, opening at 2049 yuan/ton, closing at 2029 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1178856 lots and open interest of 1497531, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing load, with an average operating load of 76.82%. As of November 16, the total methanol loading volume this month was 575000 tons [1] 3. Market Analysis - The supply expectation has pushed down the spot prices, especially in coastal areas. The upward driving force for methanol is limited due to less - than - expected winter gas restriction in Iran and high inventory of MTO enterprises [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while downstream profits in the inland areas are still poor, indicating room for improvement. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The return of domestic and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, with limited demand for further inventory building, and port inventory accumulation is likely. The upward momentum for methanol is not strong [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 23 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 2372 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2366 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-1.10%) to 2247 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased, except for a 2.5 - yuan/ton (0.12%) increase in Shaanxi, and no change in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and the average price of 2180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Inner Mongolia's Taicang spot - MA decreased by 2 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-1.01%) to 490 yuan/ton; Datong Q5500 decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 562.5 yuan/ton; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 562.5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot decreased by 0.73 yuan/cubic meter (-18.53%) to 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, while the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.14 yuan/cubic meter [1]. 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 436.3 yuan/ton and - 462 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-8.55%) to 107 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit increased by 71.5 yuan/ton (22.03%) to - 253.07 yuan/ton; Acetic acid profit increased by 27.31 yuan/ton (10.44%) to 288.79 yuan/ton; MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak oscillation, opening at 2393 yuan/ton, closing at 2372 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 482,265 lots, and open interest was 754,731, with increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has reached around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw MA oscillating weakly, with the night - session closing at 2361. Attention should be paid to the potential impacts of the market's partial reflection of the current logic and the anti - involution expectations，[1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is -109 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 674733 lots, down 11543 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -107249 lots, up 10590 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -134 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 259 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 276 euros/ton, up 4 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is -63 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 68.7 tons, up 4.5 tons; South China port inventory is 33.48 tons, up 5.13 tons. Methanol import profit is 25.4 yuan/ton, down 16.09 yuan; monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 295600 tons, up 1900 tons; methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43%; dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82%; acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82%; MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23%; olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77%. Methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -1016 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.07%, up 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.61%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.89%, up 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.9%, up 0.49% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory is 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease. As of August 14, domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 84.71%, a -0.41% decrease [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The overall methanol production has a slight increase. The enterprise inventory level has a slight increase. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin device [3] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, and the methanol price dropped significantly. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, the market is no longer focused on conflict escalation. Methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the future market lies in imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of the current low port inventory, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2417 yuan/ton on June 25, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2328 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.30%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (0.50%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: On June 25, the spot price in Taicang was 2645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.38%); in Shandong, it was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.30%); in Guangdong, it was 2455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); in Shaanxi, it was 2065 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 2.59%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1990 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.49%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 427.50 yuan/ton and 485 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 495 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.51%) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 499.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO was 528.00 yuan/ton, up 52.80 yuan/ton (11.11%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1332.07 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (- 3.58%); the profit of acetic acid was 323.81 yuan/ton, down 5.77 yuan/ton (- 1.75%); the profit of MTBE was 146.52 yuan/ton, down 150.00 yuan/ton (- 50.59%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 252.40 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (- 8.61%); the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 518.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2383 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1052872 lots, and the open interest was 904409 lots, with volume shrinking and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 275 - 284 US dollars/ton. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and there is no news of actual transactions. In other regions of the Middle East, there is also a lack of active offer news. The reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions arriving in the near - far - month is + 1 - 1.2%. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of a certain country's device in the Middle East [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2400 in the short term. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline due to planned maintenance and potential load - reduction expectations. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, imports are expected to return, leading to a significant drop in methanol prices [3][4] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2379 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 28 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 896,735 lots, down 96,724 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 85,080 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2020 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price spread is 600 yuan/ton, down 117.5 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 241 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 306 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 285 euros/ton, up 12 euros. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 40 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 3.68 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.22 dollars [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; South China port inventory is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. Methanol import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367,400 tons, down 11,700 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [3] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 863 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [3] Industry News - As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons (3.10% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons (9.37% MoM). As of June 18, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons. The overall production increased slightly. The inventory in the Northwest decreased, while some enterprises' inventory increased slightly. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 88.97%, down 0.54% MoM [3] View Summary - Due to the short - term low arrival at ports, the port inventory decreased. The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. Attention should be paid to the change in the tradable volume in the coastal market and international situation changes [3] Tip for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]