公用事业行业周报（2025.11.17-2025.11.21） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 | 长协电价预期上修，现货市场建设加速： | 2025-11-09 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.11.03- | | | 2025.11.07） | | | 火电业绩持续高增，行业持仓已至低点： | 2025-11-02 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.10.27- | | | 2025.10.31） | | | 煤价上涨接近尾声，火电 Q3 业绩如期兑 | 2025-10-26 | | 现 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2025.10.20- | | | 2025.10.24） | | 公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 用电高增有望延续，火电增速由负转正 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The expectation for long-term electricity prices has been revised upwards, alleviating pessimistic forecasts for the coal price [7] - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with the National Grid's spot electricity market achieving full coverage ahead of schedule [7] - The utility sector is showing defensive attributes, with low-priced utility assets becoming increasingly attractive [7] - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset worth allocating to in the long term [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting the comparative advantages of dividend assets in the current low-interest-rate environment [7] - It emphasizes the need for further market-oriented price reforms to support the complex new power system, which will allow for better pricing of electricity attributes [7] - Specific recommendations include: - Thermal Power: Continued high growth in Q3 2025 profits, with improved commercial models [7] - Hydropower: Suggests investing in quality large hydropower projects due to low costs [7] - Nuclear Power: Strong long-term growth potential with reduced risks from market price declines [7] - Wind and Solar: Anticipated growth under carbon neutrality expectations, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios [7] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant increases in spot electricity prices, with Guangdong's average price up 6.3% year-on-year and Shanxi's up 55.0% [10] - Coal prices have risen significantly, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price at 817 RMB/ton, a 6.1% increase week-on-week [13] - The report highlights a high inflow into the Three Gorges Reservoir, with inflow rates up 66.7% year-on-year [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The thermal power sector continues to show high growth in performance, with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow [7][10] - The report indicates that the current coal price increase is nearing its end, and the pessimistic expectations for electricity prices are easing [7] - The utility sector is currently undervalued, with a notable decrease in fund holdings, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][14] Summary by Sections Thermal Power Performance - In Q3 2025, the thermal power sector's gross margin reached 18.9%, above the historical average of 17.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percentage points [7][10] - Total revenue for sample companies in Q3 2025 was 314.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.7 billion yuan, an increase of 38.3% [10][12] - The average price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 715 yuan/ton, reflecting a 10.6% increase compared to the previous quarter [7][10] Fund Holdings and Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the utility sector's fund holdings dropped to 1.15% of total fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points [14] - The utility sector index rose by 0.6% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points [47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality dividend assets within the utility sector, particularly thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power [7] - Specific stocks recommended include Guodian Power (600795), Huadian International (600027), and Huaneng International (600011) for thermal power [7] - For hydropower, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power (600900) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the risk of rising coal prices is limited, and pessimistic expectations regarding electricity prices are easing [2] - The utility sector is showing defensive attributes, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [8] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity commodities as the market becomes more complex [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting that low interest rates and policy encouragement for long-term capital investment make dividend assets a worthwhile long-term allocation [8] - It identifies specific investment targets within thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind/solar energy sectors, suggesting companies like Guodian Power (国电电力), China Yangtze Power (长江电力), and China General Nuclear Power (中国广核) as potential investments [8] Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant increases in spot electricity prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanxi, with year-on-year increases of 27.1%, 34.2%, and 55.1% respectively [11] - It highlights that coal prices have risen sharply due to abnormal weather conditions, but the upward price potential is expected to be limited in the future [8] - The report also mentions that the average outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased significantly, indicating improved hydropower generation conditions [39] Market Performance - The utility sector index has outperformed the broader market indices, with a decline of only 0.7% compared to a 2.2% drop in the CSI 300 index [46] - Within the utility sub-sectors, hydropower showed the highest weekly increase of 1.7%, while wind and solar sectors experienced declines [48]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that electricity consumption in August 2025 increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with expectations for sustained high growth in electricity demand driven by high-tech manufacturing as the base effect diminishes in the following months [1][2]. Electricity Consumption Analysis - In August 2025, electricity consumption by different sectors showed year-on-year growth rates of +9.7% for primary industry, +5.0% for secondary industry, +7.2% for tertiary industry, and +2.4% for residential use, reflecting a decline compared to July 2025 [2]. - The manufacturing sector's electricity consumption rose by 5.5% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate for 2025, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing growing by 9.1% [2]. Power Generation Insights - In August 2025, the electricity generation from large-scale power plants increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline in growth rates for thermal, nuclear, and solar power, while wind power saw an acceleration in growth [3]. - Hydropower generation decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, attributed to weaker water inflow, but is expected to improve marginally in the last quarter of 2025 due to a low base effect [3]. Investment Recommendations - The public utility sector is viewed positively, with expectations for continued growth in the thermal power industry due to improved commercial models and rising capacity price compensation [4]. - Recommended stocks in the thermal power sector include Guodian Power (600795.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), and Huaneng International (600011.SH) [4]. - For hydropower, companies with strong basin advantages such as Yangtze Power (600900.SH) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674.SH) are suggested for investment [4]. - In the nuclear power sector, China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is highlighted for its strong long-term growth potential [5]. - Wind and solar sectors are expected to have significant growth opportunities under carbon neutrality expectations, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios like Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector [7] Core Insights - The report indicates that the decline in electricity consumption growth in August 2025 is primarily due to a high base effect from August 2024, rather than a weakening demand [7] - It is expected that electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth from September to December 2025 as the base effect dissipates [7] - The report highlights that the electricity consumption growth rate for August 2025 was +5.0%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from July 2025, with a two-year CAGR of +6.9% [7] - The report notes that the electricity consumption growth rates for different sectors in August 2025 were +9.7% for primary industry, +5.0% for secondary industry, +7.2% for tertiary industry, and +2.4% for residential use [7] - The report anticipates that the growth rate of hydropower generation will improve marginally in the future, despite a decline in August 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to August 2025 increased by +4.6% year-on-year [10] - The cumulative electricity consumption for the primary industry was +10.6%, secondary industry +3.1%, tertiary industry +7.7%, and residential use +6.6% [13][17] Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to August 2025 increased by +1.5% year-on-year [18] - Cumulative thermal power generation decreased by -0.8%, while hydropower generation decreased by -5.5% [20] - Cumulative nuclear power generation increased by +10.1%, wind power by +11.6%, and photovoltaic power by +23.4% [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, emphasizing the attractiveness of dividend assets in the current low-interest-rate environment [7] - Specific recommendations include focusing on thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind/solar power sectors, with identified stocks for potential investment [7]