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东方证券:气温高基数扰动需求 后续电量有望维持高增
智通财经网· 2025-09-25 07:09
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that electricity consumption in August 2025 increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with expectations for sustained high growth in electricity demand driven by high-tech manufacturing as the base effect diminishes in the following months [1][2]. Electricity Consumption Analysis - In August 2025, electricity consumption by different sectors showed year-on-year growth rates of +9.7% for primary industry, +5.0% for secondary industry, +7.2% for tertiary industry, and +2.4% for residential use, reflecting a decline compared to July 2025 [2]. - The manufacturing sector's electricity consumption rose by 5.5% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate for 2025, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing growing by 9.1% [2]. Power Generation Insights - In August 2025, the electricity generation from large-scale power plants increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline in growth rates for thermal, nuclear, and solar power, while wind power saw an acceleration in growth [3]. - Hydropower generation decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, attributed to weaker water inflow, but is expected to improve marginally in the last quarter of 2025 due to a low base effect [3]. Investment Recommendations - The public utility sector is viewed positively, with expectations for continued growth in the thermal power industry due to improved commercial models and rising capacity price compensation [4]. - Recommended stocks in the thermal power sector include Guodian Power (600795.SH), Huadian International (600027.SH), and Huaneng International (600011.SH) [4]. - For hydropower, companies with strong basin advantages such as Yangtze Power (600900.SH) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674.SH) are suggested for investment [4]. - In the nuclear power sector, China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ) is highlighted for its strong long-term growth potential [5]. - Wind and solar sectors are expected to have significant growth opportunities under carbon neutrality expectations, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios like Longyuan Power (001289.SZ) [5].
2025年8月电量点评:高基数扰动需求,后续电量有望维持高增
Orient Securities· 2025-09-25 06:20
公用事业行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 高基数扰动需求,后续电量有望维持高增 2025 年 8 月电量点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 孙辉贤 执业证书编号:S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 李晓渊 执业证书编号:S0860525090002 lixiaoyuan@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 海外云厂商CAPEX上修,数据中心电源需 求激活 2025-07-31 有关分析师的申明,见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分,或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好(维持) ⚫ 核心结论:我们认为 2025 年 8 月全社会用电量增速回落并非用电需求边际走弱,主 要由于 2024 年 8 月电量高基数。我们预计基数效应消退后,2025 年 9~12 月全社 会用电量有望维持快速增长。 ⚫ 气温高基数扰动下需求增速有所回落,后续用电量有望维持高增。2025 年 8 月全社 会用电量同比+5.0%,较 2025 年 7 月-3.6 pct(2 年 CAGR +6. ...