报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 社零环比降速，线上稳中有升——2025年8月社零数据点评；报告日期：2025.09.18 报告作 者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 颜慧菁（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040022 庞瑜泽（分析师），登记编号：S0880524010003 报告导读： 8 月社零环比降速，分类型消费数据呈现分化，乡村、餐服环比提速，而城 镇、商品环比降速，另外网上实物累计零售额增长环比提速、线上渗透率稳中有升。 2025 年 8 月社零总额、限额以上社零均环比降速。 国家统计局发布 2025 年 8 月社零数据：单月社零总额同比 +3.4%/ 环比 -0.3pct ，剔除汽车后同比 +3.7%/ 环比 -0.6pct ，限额以上同比 +2.4%/ 环比 -0.4pct ； 2025 年 1-8 月，累计社零总额同比 +4.6%/ 环比 -0.2pct ，剔除汽车后同比 +5.1%/ 环比 -0.2pct ，限额以上同比 +5.2%/ 环比 -0.4pct 。 分地区、分类型消费数据分化，乡村、餐饮服务环比提速。 1 ）分 ...

Group 1 - The Tianjin Municipal Government has issued a notice to construct a "big consumption" pattern, emphasizing the expansion and optimization of online consumption platforms [1] - The plan includes nurturing leading e-commerce enterprises and introducing retail e-commerce platforms in specific sectors, promoting the development of e-commerce and live-streaming economy [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the supply of imported consumer goods, increasing categories such as beauty, pharmaceuticals, and digital products, while exploring new models of "cross-border e-commerce imports + retail" [1] Group 2 - According to Xinda Securities, the global e-commerce penetration rate has been steadily increasing, with a robust growth in market size [1] - China's cross-border e-commerce industry benefits from manufacturing advantages, driving domestic products to go global with impressive growth rates [1] - The United States is identified as the largest market for China's cross-border e-commerce exports, with trade friction unlikely to diminish the competitive edge of domestic products [1] - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America are expected to release considerable potential due to demographic dividends and improving infrastructure [1] Group 3 - According to Maigao Securities, the acceleration of brand globalization and the booming development of e-commerce are significant drivers for the growth of cross-border logistics [2] - The logistics market is undergoing upgrades and improvements in global logistics infrastructure due to the rise of cross-border e-commerce [2] - Direct mail international lines are rapidly emerging in cross-border logistics due to their low cost, fast delivery, and strong traceability [2] - The overseas warehouse model is favored by cross-border e-commerce companies for its high delivery efficiency, low logistics costs, and convenience in returns and exchanges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the characteristics and landscape of the Japanese e-commerce industry through a comparative lens with China, highlighting the low penetration rate, consumption upgrades, and limited impact of live commerce in Japan [1] Group 1: Characteristics of the Japanese E-commerce Industry - Japan's e-commerce penetration rate is approximately 9.4% in 2023, significantly lower than China's 27.6% and the US's 15.8% [2][4] - Factors contributing to the low penetration include an aging population, small household sizes, strong offline consumption, high logistics costs, and low mobile payment adoption [2][7] - Japanese e-commerce is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with consumers prioritizing quality over price, as evidenced by the increase in nominal average transaction prices from 1,648 yen in 2013 to 2,931 yen in 2023 [15][19] - The interest and participation rates in live commerce among Japanese consumers are significantly lower than in China, with only 2.8% having purchased through live streams [20][21] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The top players in Japan's e-commerce market are Amazon Japan, Rakuten Group, and LINE Yahoo, with market shares increasing post-pandemic [3][26] - Amazon Japan leads in GMV and user numbers, successfully replicating its logistics and membership systems in Japan [36][41] - Rakuten Group has over 100 million members, leveraging a robust points system to enhance user loyalty [44][48] - LINE Yahoo, while having a large platform, still needs to improve efficiency and user engagement [50][53] Group 3: Impact of Cross-Border E-commerce - Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and Temu are rapidly gaining market share in Japan, leveraging cost advantages and localized operations [29][33] - Amazon Japan has responded to this competition by reducing commission rates and delivery fees for small items, indicating a competitive response to the "catfish effect" brought by cross-border e-commerce [33][34] - TikTok Shop is expected to enter the Japanese market, potentially reshaping consumer habits and intensifying competition [30] Group 4: Future Trends and Challenges - The Japanese e-commerce market is seen as a high-potential market with relatively mild competition, but it faces challenges such as inflation risks, regulatory scrutiny on cross-border e-commerce, and the need for adaptation to AI-driven changes [4][58] - The logistics costs in Japan remain high due to elevated labor costs and a concentrated logistics industry, which may hinder e-commerce growth [14][24] - The potential adjustment of tax policies regarding small imports could impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [34]