每经记者｜张怀水 每经编辑｜陈旭 随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延，目前除南极洲外六大洲均有确诊病例。截至北京时间3月2日19时，全球除中国外共65个国家和地区报告新冠肺炎累计确 诊病例9000余例。 此前世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞2月28日宣布，将新冠肺炎疫情全球风险级别由此前的"高"上调为"非常高"。 在疫情暴发初期，口罩供应短缺在国内外都曾引起过抢购。不过随着中国疫情防控态势逐渐好转以及国内产能大量释放，中国国内市场的口罩已不再是一货 难求，而在韩国、意大利等新增确诊病例大量出现的国家，口罩仍是紧缺商品。 不过当疫情在更多国家蔓延的同时，一个令人啼笑皆非的现象开始出现——在日本、美国、澳大利亚等多个国家，市民涌入超市，大量购买和囤积日常生活 物资，其中最具有代表性的商品之一竟然是卫生纸。 据日本放送协会（NHK）报道，受民众抢购潮影响，熊本市在卫生纸和纸巾等日用品方面出现缺货，有的商店在卫生纸区还贴出告示："每人最多只能买一 个"。 Pr Paulon . res . D+8 TTATIN UNN DOONGULOTE THE THE CONSULTION 70 000000 . 11:4021050026 ...

Core Insights - The 17th "Double 11" shopping festival saw significant growth, with Tmall reporting its best growth in four years and JD.com achieving record transaction volumes, with a 40% increase in the number of users placing orders [1][2] - E-commerce platforms are shifting focus from Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) to higher quality metrics such as brand performance and consumer trends, indicating a maturation of the market [1][2] - Experts argue that e-commerce penetration rates do not accurately reflect a country's consumption strength, as they overlook the evolving dynamics between online and offline retail [2][4] E-commerce Trends - The e-commerce penetration rate in China peaked at 27.6% in 2023 but is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024 and stabilize around 25% in 2025, suggesting a saturation point [2] - The distinction between "far-field e-commerce" (traditional online shopping) and "near-field e-commerce" (instant retail) is becoming more pronounced, with the latter driving growth in local physical stores [3][4] - The U.S. e-commerce penetration is expected to grow from 25% in 2022 to one-third by 2027, but growth is slowing post-pandemic [3] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly engaging in "emotional consumption," with a notable rise in spending on trendy toys, outdoor products, and smart devices [5][6] - The "new three items" popular among young consumers include trendy toys, outdoor gear, and smart products, with significant growth in these categories over the past two years [5][6] - Interest-based consumption is on the rise, with platforms like Xianyu reporting substantial growth in categories such as cards and trendy toys, indicating a shift towards personalized and unique products [6][7] Silver Economy - The silver economy is gaining traction, with the elderly population's consumption needs expected to grow significantly, projected to exceed 100 trillion yuan by 2050 [9] - The elderly demographic is increasingly focused on health-related products and services, with a growing interest in travel and leisure activities [9][10] - E-commerce platforms are adapting to cater to the silver population, with a focus on health management and service-oriented offerings [9][10] Service Consumption - The shift towards service consumption is evident, with service spending in China rising from 46.1% in 2024 to 46.8% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating room for further growth [11] - Experts emphasize the importance of understanding diverse consumer experiences and creating unique value propositions to drive growth in both e-commerce and physical retail [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the stagnation of e-commerce penetration rate does not indicate a decline in consumption but rather reflects a significant transformation in China's consumption structure from goods to services [1][2] - E-commerce penetration rate reached a peak of 27.6% in 2023 but is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024, with the current rate around 25% [1] - The increase in service consumption, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment, shows a growth of 10.3% in per capita spending, outpacing the growth in physical goods [1][2] Group 2 - The rise of experiential and personalized service consumption indicates a shift in consumer spending patterns, leading to a ceiling for e-commerce penetration [2] - Major e-commerce platforms are integrating online and offline consumption experiences through "instant retail" to adapt to the rapid rise of service consumption [2] - Online service consumption grew by 20.2% and instant e-commerce sales increased by 24.3% in the first nine months of the year, highlighting the shift towards digital and service-oriented retail [2] Group 3 - The growth and competitiveness of both e-commerce and offline malls depend on accurately understanding consumer experiences and trust [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the stagnation of e-commerce penetration rate does not indicate a decline in consumption but rather reflects a significant transformation in China's consumption structure from goods to services [1][2] - E-commerce penetration rate reached a peak of 27.6% in 2023 but is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024, with the current rate around 25% [1] - The increase in spending on experiential and personalized services, which outpaces that of physical goods, signifies a shift in consumer preferences and indicates that e-commerce penetration may have reached its limit [2] Group 2 - The growth of online services and instant e-commerce has been notable, with online service consumption increasing by 20.2% and instant e-commerce sales rising by 24.3% in the first nine months of the year [2] - Major e-commerce platforms are integrating various consumption scenarios through "instant retail" to connect online and offline experiences, aiming to cover all aspects of consumer needs [2] - The collaboration between offline commercial facilities and tourist attractions aims to enhance immersive and interactive service experiences, transforming tourists into customers [2][3] Group 3 - The key to growth and competitiveness for both e-commerce and offline malls lies in accurately understanding consumer experience and trust [3]

Core Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate in China has peaked at 27.6% in 2023 and is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024, with the current rate around 25% [1][2] - This stagnation in e-commerce penetration does not indicate a decline in consumption but rather reflects a significant shift in consumer spending from goods to services, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment [1][2] E-commerce Trends - The growth of e-commerce is now facing limitations as consumers increasingly prefer experiential and personalized services over standardized goods, leading to a transformation in consumption patterns [2] - Major e-commerce platforms are adapting by integrating online and offline experiences through "instant retail" models, aiming to cover all aspects of consumer needs [2] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first nine months of this year, per capita spending on education, culture, and entertainment increased by 10.3%, significantly outpacing growth in traditional goods categories [1] - Online service consumption grew by 20.2%, and instant e-commerce sales surged by 24.3%, indicating a shift towards digital and service-oriented spending [2] Strategic Adaptations - Both e-commerce platforms and offline commercial facilities are seeking to enhance consumer experiences by linking immersive and interactive service consumption with physical goods [2][3] - The focus on understanding consumer experience and trust is crucial for the growth and competitiveness of both e-commerce and physical retail environments [3]

Core Insights - The e-commerce penetration rate in China has peaked at 27.6% in 2023 and is projected to decline to 26.8% in 2024, with the current rate around 25% [1][2] - This stagnation in e-commerce penetration does not indicate a decline in consumption but rather reflects a significant shift in consumer spending from goods to services, particularly in education, culture, and entertainment [1][2] E-commerce Trends - The growth of e-commerce penetration is stalling as consumers increasingly favor experience-based and personalized service spending, which is growing at a faster rate than physical goods [2] - Major e-commerce platforms are adapting by integrating online and offline consumption experiences through "instant retail" models, aiming to cover all aspects of consumer needs [2] Consumer Spending Patterns - In the first nine months of the year, per capita spending on education, culture, and entertainment increased by 10.3%, significantly outpacing growth in traditional goods categories [1] - Online service consumption grew by 20.2%, and instant e-commerce sales surged by 24.3%, indicating a shift towards digital and service-oriented spending [2] Strategic Adaptations - Both e-commerce platforms and offline commercial facilities are seeking to enhance consumer experiences by linking immersive and interactive service consumption with physical goods [2][3] - The focus on consumer experience and trust is essential for growth and competitiveness in both e-commerce and physical retail environments [3]

E-commerce Sector - The Latin American e-commerce market is still in its early development stage, with an online shopping penetration rate of approximately 14% expected by 2024, compared to 30%-40% in mature markets like the US and China [2][3] - Historical growth in the Latin American e-commerce sector has been slow, with growth rates below 20% before the pandemic and a significant drop in growth post-2022 [2][3] - Key constraints on growth include political instability, slow economic growth (with a 10-year GDP growth rate of only 1.5% for major Latin American countries), and poor logistics infrastructure leading to delivery issues [3][5] Logistics and Delivery - Mercado Libre (Meli) is improving logistics capabilities, with approximately 52% of packages expected to be delivered on the same or next day by Q2 2025, which is expected to enhance overall e-commerce penetration [5][7] - The logistics infrastructure in Brazil shows significant variation in online penetration rates across different product categories, with higher penetration in toys, video games, and electronics compared to apparel and food [6][7] - The cost of logistics relative to product prices is a critical factor affecting online purchasing decisions, with Meli's average logistics cost accounting for about 11%-12% of the average order value [7][8] Market Share and Competition - Meli currently leads the Latin American e-commerce market but faces strong competition in Brazil and Mexico from players like Shopee and Amazon, with a significant portion of the market still held by smaller players [11][13] - The market is expected to consolidate, with a potential increase in Meli's market share from 29% to approximately 39% over the next five years, driven by growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [20][19] - The competitive landscape suggests that while Meli may maintain its leading position, it will not dominate the market entirely, as multiple platforms continue to compete [19][20] Advertising Revenue - Meli's current monetization rate for its e-commerce business is around 21%, which is significantly higher than the typical rates seen in other markets [22][24] - The company has room for growth in advertising revenue, with projections indicating an increase from 2.1% of GMV in 2024 to potentially 3% by 2030 [25][26] - If Meli's market share increases to around 40%, its advertising revenue could see substantial growth, similar to Amazon's performance in the US market [26][27] Financial Services - Meli's financial services, particularly payment and credit, are still in early growth stages, with a market share of only about 5% in payments and 1%-2% in credit in Brazil [34][35] - The introduction of the PIX payment system in Brazil has accelerated the adoption of electronic payments but may also reduce the average transaction fees for payment processors [37][39] - Meli's credit business is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing adoption of credit cards, with projections indicating a potential increase in loan balances to approximately $32 billion by 2030 [46][47] Valuation - Meli's total revenue is projected to grow from approximately $28 billion in 2025 to $72 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 21% [56][58] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to improve from 44% in 2025 to 50% by 2030, reflecting operational efficiencies [59][61] - Based on discounted cash flow analysis, Meli's fair valuation is estimated at around $124.7 billion, indicating a potential upside from current market prices [65][66]

Core Insights - The overall retail sales in August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in growth [1] - The data reveals a divergence in consumption patterns, with rural and dining services experiencing an uptick, while urban and goods consumption slowed down [2] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In August 2025, total retail sales in urban areas grew by 3.2% year-on-year but decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while rural areas saw a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [2] - The retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year but decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, with specific categories like furniture and sports/entertainment items leading in growth [2] Group 2: Online Retail Trends - Cumulative online retail sales of physical goods showed a month-on-month acceleration, with total online retail sales reaching 99.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [3] - The penetration rate of e-commerce slightly increased, with online physical retail sales accounting for 25.0% of total social retail sales [3]

Group 1 - The Tianjin Municipal Government has issued a notice to construct a "big consumption" pattern, emphasizing the expansion and optimization of online consumption platforms [1] - The plan includes nurturing leading e-commerce enterprises and introducing retail e-commerce platforms in specific sectors, promoting the development of e-commerce and live-streaming economy [1] - The initiative aims to enhance the supply of imported consumer goods, increasing categories such as beauty, pharmaceuticals, and digital products, while exploring new models of "cross-border e-commerce imports + retail" [1] Group 2 - According to Xinda Securities, the global e-commerce penetration rate has been steadily increasing, with a robust growth in market size [1] - China's cross-border e-commerce industry benefits from manufacturing advantages, driving domestic products to go global with impressive growth rates [1] - The United States is identified as the largest market for China's cross-border e-commerce exports, with trade friction unlikely to diminish the competitive edge of domestic products [1] - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America are expected to release considerable potential due to demographic dividends and improving infrastructure [1] Group 3 - According to Maigao Securities, the acceleration of brand globalization and the booming development of e-commerce are significant drivers for the growth of cross-border logistics [2] - The logistics market is undergoing upgrades and improvements in global logistics infrastructure due to the rise of cross-border e-commerce [2] - Direct mail international lines are rapidly emerging in cross-border logistics due to their low cost, fast delivery, and strong traceability [2] - The overseas warehouse model is favored by cross-border e-commerce companies for its high delivery efficiency, low logistics costs, and convenience in returns and exchanges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the characteristics and landscape of the Japanese e-commerce industry through a comparative lens with China, highlighting the low penetration rate, consumption upgrades, and limited impact of live commerce in Japan [1] Group 1: Characteristics of the Japanese E-commerce Industry - Japan's e-commerce penetration rate is approximately 9.4% in 2023, significantly lower than China's 27.6% and the US's 15.8% [2][4] - Factors contributing to the low penetration include an aging population, small household sizes, strong offline consumption, high logistics costs, and low mobile payment adoption [2][7] - Japanese e-commerce is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with consumers prioritizing quality over price, as evidenced by the increase in nominal average transaction prices from 1,648 yen in 2013 to 2,931 yen in 2023 [15][19] - The interest and participation rates in live commerce among Japanese consumers are significantly lower than in China, with only 2.8% having purchased through live streams [20][21] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The top players in Japan's e-commerce market are Amazon Japan, Rakuten Group, and LINE Yahoo, with market shares increasing post-pandemic [3][26] - Amazon Japan leads in GMV and user numbers, successfully replicating its logistics and membership systems in Japan [36][41] - Rakuten Group has over 100 million members, leveraging a robust points system to enhance user loyalty [44][48] - LINE Yahoo, while having a large platform, still needs to improve efficiency and user engagement [50][53] Group 3: Impact of Cross-Border E-commerce - Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and Temu are rapidly gaining market share in Japan, leveraging cost advantages and localized operations [29][33] - Amazon Japan has responded to this competition by reducing commission rates and delivery fees for small items, indicating a competitive response to the "catfish effect" brought by cross-border e-commerce [33][34] - TikTok Shop is expected to enter the Japanese market, potentially reshaping consumer habits and intensifying competition [30] Group 4: Future Trends and Challenges - The Japanese e-commerce market is seen as a high-potential market with relatively mild competition, but it faces challenges such as inflation risks, regulatory scrutiny on cross-border e-commerce, and the need for adaptation to AI-driven changes [4][58] - The logistics costs in Japan remain high due to elevated labor costs and a concentrated logistics industry, which may hinder e-commerce growth [14][24] - The potential adjustment of tax policies regarding small imports could impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [34]