Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the film industry during the National Day holiday, highlighting the increased number of films, diverse genres, and changing audience preferences, which complicate predictions for box office success [5][27]. Film Quantity and Types - This year's National Day holiday features 13 films, a significant increase from 9 films last year, indicating a more competitive environment for box office success [5][6]. - Traditional genres like patriotic and comedy films are less prevalent this year, with only "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" as a main patriotic film and "Life of the Waves" as the sole comedy [5][6][27]. Box Office Predictions - "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" is expected to lead the box office, with a projected total of 814 million, while "Life of the Waves" is forecasted to earn 381 million [15]. - The article suggests that audience demand for patriotic films remains strong, which may help "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" maintain its lead despite concerns about its content [15][27]. Emerging Contenders - Among the remaining films, seven are considered potential box office contenders, including "Assassination of the Novelist 2," "Wind Forest Fire Mountain," and "The Proof of Bi Zhengming," each with distinct strengths and weaknesses [16][27]. - "Assassination of the Novelist 2" has a strong fan base and visual appeal, while "Wind Forest Fire Mountain" features a star-studded cast but has received mixed reviews for its narrative [20][22]. Audience Trends - The audience is becoming more discerning, with a shift from relying on star power to valuing word-of-mouth and reviews, as evidenced by the slower pre-sale ticket sales compared to previous years [30][32]. - The demographic profile of viewers is also diversifying, with different films appealing to specific age groups and interests, indicating a more segmented audience [28][29]. Overall Market Outlook - The film industry is transitioning from a model of genre saturation to one that focuses on accurately targeting specific audiences, which may lead to a more sustainable box office environment [27][30]. - Despite a slow start to ticket sales, the overall demand for films remains strong, suggesting that the industry has significant potential for growth and adaptation [27][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the emergence of potential "dark horse" films during this year's National Day holiday, driven by factors such as film quality, market dynamics, and changes in promotional strategies [1][2][3][5][6][8][16] Group 2 - The first reason for the concentration of potential dark horses is the unexpected quality of the films, with audiences becoming more discerning and valuing genuine word-of-mouth over big IPs or productions [3][5] - The second reason is the reduced monopolistic effect of top films in this year's National Day period, allowing more opportunities for mid-tier films to gain traction [5][6] - The third reason involves a significant adjustment in promotional strategies, moving away from an over-reliance on short video marketing to a more balanced approach that emphasizes both traditional and innovative promotional methods [6][7][8][9] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining regular promotional activities to ensure films gain visibility, which is crucial for both large and potential dark horse films [9][11] - It also discusses the role of short video marketing, which remains a key channel for reaching younger audiences, but highlights a shift in strategy towards more differentiated content [11][13] - The most significant change in promotional strategy this year is the increased focus on word-of-mouth marketing, with early screenings and audience interactions becoming critical for a film's success [13][15][16]