Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a strong support due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, with expectations of a fluctuating but generally strong trend in aluminum prices moving forward [1][6]. Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures reached a peak of 21,205 yuan/ton on October 10, marking a nearly 11-month high, but quickly retreated due to insufficient driving forces [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with resistance at 21,130 yuan/ton and support at 20,650 yuan/ton [6]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.18% [3]. - The aluminum water ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 76.3%, leading to a decrease in cast ingot production by 8.67% to 857,000 tons [3]. - As of October 13, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets was 642,000 tons, a slight increase from October 9 but down 4,000 tons year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The average fully loaded cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in September was 16,488 yuan/ton, down 1.37% month-on-month and 6.58% year-on-year [4]. - The total cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline in October, with an estimated range of 15,800 to 16,200 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - The automotive market showed positive trends in September, with production and sales reaching 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, marking month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9% [5]. - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new car sales in September, indicating strong growth in this segment [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increased supply of new products, despite external uncertainties [6].