专题报告 2025-11-27 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年美国铝关税落地后引起美国原铝、铝材及铝制品进口数量减少，关税在抑制美国需求的 同时也带动了该国铝库存消耗。同时，美国铝关税落地也导致加拿大出口美国原铝数量明显减 少、出口到非美国家的数量增加。由于非美国家铝需求增加，关税引起的贸易流向变化并未引 起美国以外库存累积。 当前及未来一段时间，美国原铝库存消耗引起的现货升水走高使得出口到美国的优势重新显 现，加拿大以及非美国家和地区的原铝有望更多流向美国，并逆转 4-8 月的贸易流向。叠加消 费维持增长和新增产能有限，我们预计美国以外的原铝供需关系将维持阶段性偏紧，全球铝价 依然具有较强的支撑。 有色金属研究 | 铝 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 2018 年美国启动针对钢铁和铝的 232 调查，并对铝征收 10%的关税，不过此后逐渐实施关税豁 免，并扩大关税豁免范围。今年 3 月 12 日，美国将进口铝产品关税提升至 25%，且取消了加拿 大、墨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a strong support due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, with expectations of a fluctuating but generally strong trend in aluminum prices moving forward [1][6]. Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures reached a peak of 21,205 yuan/ton on October 10, marking a nearly 11-month high, but quickly retreated due to insufficient driving forces [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with resistance at 21,130 yuan/ton and support at 20,650 yuan/ton [6]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.18% [3]. - The aluminum water ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 76.3%, leading to a decrease in cast ingot production by 8.67% to 857,000 tons [3]. - As of October 13, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets was 642,000 tons, a slight increase from October 9 but down 4,000 tons year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The average fully loaded cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in September was 16,488 yuan/ton, down 1.37% month-on-month and 6.58% year-on-year [4]. - The total cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline in October, with an estimated range of 15,800 to 16,200 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - The automotive market showed positive trends in September, with production and sales reaching 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, marking month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9% [5]. - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new car sales in September, indicating strong growth in this segment [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increased supply of new products, despite external uncertainties [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite concerns about aluminum demand in the second half of the year, strong capacity utilization in China, limited new supply, and low inventory will support robust aluminum prices [1] - Citigroup has raised the target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 21 to HKD 25.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The report has also increased earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027, reflecting higher alumina prices and lower cost projections [1]