Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The vaccine industry is experiencing steady growth, with 68 preventive vaccines approved for clinical trials in 2025, an increase of 13 from 2024 [3] - The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive [9][24] - Key drivers for the industry's development include policy support, increasing demand due to aging populations, and technological innovation [9][26] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The approval of new vaccines is on the rise, with significant advancements in innovative vaccines and multi-valent products [3] - The market is characterized by a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to intense competition and price declines [8] Market Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a cumulative decline of 12.35% since the beginning of 2025, with a recent weekly drop of 2.52% [4][14] - Companies such as Olin Bio, Hualan Biological, and CanSino have shown better performance, while companies like Gendik and Wantai Biologics have lagged [5] Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 90.01X, down 2.34X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) stands at 1.74X, reflecting a slight decrease [6] Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product lines, particularly those with high technical barriers [9][26] - Companies like CanSino and Kanghua Biological are recommended due to their innovative strengths and market demand resilience [9][26]

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：021-50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 研发进展密集，特色预防与多联苗布局加速 相关研究： 1. 《继续关注流感需求与创新 进展》20251207 2. 《技术路线多元突破，国产创 新加速全球覆盖》20251214 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/12 25/03 25/06 25/09 沪深300_累计 疫苗_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -7 | -6 | -28 | | 绝对收益 | -4 | -6 | -14 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 国内外疫苗动态 （1）智飞生物：改良型安卡拉痘苗病毒（MVA）猴痘减毒活疫苗临床试验申 请获受理。智飞生物全资子公司智飞龙科马研发的改良型安卡拉痘苗病毒 （MVA ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The vaccine industry is experiencing a transition from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, with significant advancements in various technical platforms and applications [5][9][10] - Recent developments include the approval of a freeze-dried mRNA vaccine for shingles by Watson Bio and the initiation of clinical trials for a six-valent norovirus vaccine by Yuan Da Life Sciences, indicating a strong focus on innovative vaccine solutions [5][9] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and intense competition due to a high proportion of Me-too products, leading to price declines for some vaccines [9][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a relative decline, with a cumulative drop of 9.31% since the beginning of 2025, and a recent weekly decrease of 2.83% [6][7][12] - The sector's PE (ttm) is reported at 93.06X, with a recent decrease of 2.6X, while the PB (lf) stands at 1.8X, reflecting a slight decline [8] Market Dynamics - The vaccine industry is witnessing a collaborative breakthrough in technology, with advancements in mRNA, recombinant proteins, and live attenuated vaccines, enhancing product clinical progress and optimizing antigen design [5][9] - The demand for vaccines is expected to grow due to increased consumer willingness and an aging population, alongside opportunities for international market expansion [10][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technological barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts, particularly those engaged in innovative vaccine development and international expansion [9][10][29] - Specific companies recommended for attention include CanSino and Kanghua Biotech, with a short-term focus on flu vaccine-related enterprises [10][29]

Core Viewpoint - The export of Chinese vaccines is experiencing a recovery, with significant international contracts and an upward trend in export value, driven by increased average prices and a shift towards innovative products [1][9][19]. Group 1: Export Growth and Market Dynamics - Sinovac has signed a long-term contract with the Brazilian Ministry of Health to supply approximately 60 million doses of varicella and rabies vaccines over the next decade, valued at over $700 million [1][21]. - In 2024, China's human vaccine export value is projected to reach $212 million, marking a 6% year-on-year increase and the first growth since 2022 [1]. - The average export price of Chinese human vaccines is expected to rise by 9.42% in 2024, with a 34.04% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [9]. Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - Chinese vaccine companies are expanding their product lines from basic vaccines to more competitive innovative vaccines, with a focus on higher-value categories [8]. - Various vaccines, including the 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine and quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine, are accelerating entry into international markets [10]. - The HPV vaccine from Wantai Biologics has seen a threefold increase in exports, reaching approximately 15 million doses in 2025 [12]. Group 3: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The domestic vaccine market is under pressure, with a decline in the number of vaccine approvals from 5,343 in 2021 to 4,202 in 2024, influenced by economic downturns and reduced vaccination willingness [14]. - The competition in the vaccine development space is intense, with many companies pursuing similar vaccine types, leading to a crowded pipeline [17]. - The export strategy is also influenced by cost structures, as companies aim to lower supply costs and improve production efficiency through increased output [18]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities and Localization - There is a structural opportunity for Chinese vaccine companies to enter markets that are underserved by multinational corporations, particularly in low- and middle-income countries [19]. - Successful international expansion requires not only product sales but also the establishment of localized systems to support long-term growth [20]. - Companies are shifting from simple export models to more integrated approaches, including local production and technology transfer agreements [20].

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 继续关注流感需求与创新进展 核心要点： 国内外疫苗动态 （1）瑞吉生物：冻干带状疱疹 mRNA 疫苗（RH110）启动 II 期临床。近日， 瑞吉生物自主研发的冻干带状疱疹 mRNA 疫苗 RH110 正式启动 II 期临床试 验。该项试验采用随机、双盲、对照的多中心设计，旨在评价 RH110 在 40 岁 及以上受试者中的免疫原性与安全性，主要终点指标包括：第 2 剂疫苗接种 后第 30 天，抗 gE 抗原特异性血清抗体和抗 VZV 抗原特异性血清抗体几何平 均滴度和阳转率。RH110 疫苗为注射用冻干制剂，针对水痘-带状疱疹病毒引 起的带状疱疹进行预防，在已完成的Ⅰ期临床试验中，RH110 显示出优异的 安全性和耐受性。（来源：瑞吉生物） 相关研究： 1. 《流感活动度继续攀升至近 三年同期高位，继续关注结构性 机会》20251123 2. 《疫苗企业国际化与研发继 续实现突破，冬季防控压力持续 凸显》20251130 国家流感中心发布的中国流感监测周报显示，2025 年 11 月 24 日-11 月 30 日， 南、 ...

（责任编辑：刘畅 ） 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 湘财证券指出，近期国内疫苗行业新疫苗进展频繁，政策端也积极支持行业发展。流感活动度显著 升高，达到近三年同期最高水平，显示出流感及相关疫苗市场的紧迫需求。关注流感疫苗、肺炎球菌疫 苗和带疱疫苗的结构性机会，长期来看，创新和国际化将是疫苗企业的核心竞争力。 疫苗ETF（159643）跟踪的是疫苗生科指数（980015），该指数从市场中选取涉及生物制品、生命 科学工具和服务等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，重点关注疫苗研发、生产及相关服务的企业。成 分股具有显著的创新性和成长性特征，能够综合反映疫苗与生物科技行业的整体表现及技术发展动态。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9]. Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term outlook remains positive driven by policy, demand, and technology [8][9][28]. - Recent breakthroughs in vaccine development for specific populations, such as the quadrivalent influenza vaccine for infants and pregnant women, highlight ongoing innovation in the sector [4][8][9]. - The industry is experiencing structural differentiation among companies, with a focus on innovative and multi-valent products to enhance competitiveness [8][9]. Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a slight increase of 0.04% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector declined by 2.4% [5][11]. - Year-to-date, the vaccine sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 1.57% [5][11]. Company Developments - Companies like Kangtai Biological and Zhonghui Biological are making significant progress in vaccine trials for specific demographics, which could fill market gaps [4][8]. - The latest technical guidelines emphasize the importance of vaccination for high-risk groups, which may drive demand for vaccines [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - The vaccine sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 99.07X, down 4.97X from the previous period, indicating a high valuation relative to historical standards [7][20]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 1.94X, remaining stable, with historical maximum and minimum values of 2.29X and 1.69X respectively [7][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product offerings, recommending Kangxino and Kanghua Biological as key players to watch [9][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10]. Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term positive outlook remains unchanged, driven by policy, demand, and technology [10][30]. - The inclusion of the bivalent HPV vaccine in the national immunization program is expected to reshape the market landscape, with a procurement quantity of 15.4465 million doses and a budget of approximately 425 million yuan [5][10]. - The vaccine sector has shown a relative performance decline over the past 12 months, with a relative return of -26% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][6]. Market Performance - The vaccine sector reported a 3.38% increase last week, outperforming other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [6][12]. - Year-to-date, the vaccine sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 1.6% [6][12]. - The current PE (ttm) for the vaccine sector is 104.04X, with a PB (lf) of 1.94X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics [8][10]. Company Performance - Notable companies in the vaccine sector include Huashan Vaccine, Olin Bio, Watson Bio, and Kanghua Bio, with varying performance levels [7][10]. - The vaccine industry is characterized by structural differentiation among companies, with a focus on innovation and international expansion as key strategies for long-term growth [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and differentiated product lines, recommending Kangxino for its innovation strength and Kanghua Bio for its demand stability [10][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9] Core Views - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term positive logic remains unchanged, driven by policy, demand, and technology [9][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts, suggesting that these companies will have stronger product power and competitive advantages [9][25] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Watson Bio's mRNA vaccine for herpes zoster has received clinical trial approval, marking a significant advancement as no mRNA-based herpes vaccine is currently on the market [4] - Kangtai Bio's trivalent influenza virus split vaccine application has been accepted, targeting individuals aged three and above [4] - The WHO has recommended the components for the 2026 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine, maintaining a consistent approach with previous recommendations [4] Market Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a decline of 3.07% recently, with a cumulative increase of 4.33% since the beginning of 2025 [5][6] - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 101.64X, down 3.26X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) is 1.87X, down 0.06X [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative vaccines and companies with strong research and development capabilities, particularly those with differentiated products and technical advantages [8][9] - Companies like CanSino and Kanghua Bio are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their innovative capabilities and market demand [9][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The HPV vaccine is expected to be included in the National Immunization Program, indicating a substantial expansion of the program [3][4] - The vaccine industry is currently facing performance pressure, with a focus on innovation and international expansion as long-term strategies [8][9] Industry Dynamics - The HPV vaccine will be offered for free to eligible girls, with approximately 60% of eligible girls covered by the free vaccination policy [3] - The government has initiated a comprehensive cervical cancer prevention plan, promoting HPV vaccination services [3] - The vaccine market has shown a cumulative increase of 2.42% in 2025, with a recent weekly increase of 1.04% [4][11] Market Performance - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 108.78X, with a PB (lf) of 2X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics [7] - The vaccine industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to performance challenges [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong innovation capabilities and differentiated products, such as CanSino and Kanghua Biotech [9][28] - Long-term growth drivers for the vaccine industry include policy support, increasing demand due to aging populations, and technological advancements [9][26]