专题：美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查！回应：因没满足特朗普喜好 首先，时间点非常微妙。鲍威尔的主席任期本来今年5月就结束了，但特朗普显然等不及了。李徽徽对 记者分析称，因为2026年是美国债务置换的关键年份，今年有万亿级别的低息国债到期，需要置换成高 息的新债，美国财政压力巨大。特朗普迫切需要一个能把利率瞬间打到地板上的美联储，而鲍威尔坚持 的"数据依赖"模式，成了白宫眼中的绊脚石。 美联储独立性风暴愈演愈烈。1月12日，据新华社报道，美国联邦检察官已对美国联邦储备委员会主席 鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查涉及美联储办公大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目规模向国会作虚 假陈述。 报道援引知情官员的话说，这项调查由美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室展开，调查内容包括分析鲍 威尔的公开言论及审查支出记录。调查已于去年11月获得批准。 对此，鲍威尔1月11日罕见在视频声明中表示，检方对他进行刑事调查是破坏美联储在设定利率方面"独 立性"的"借口"。鲍威尔说："这关系到美联储是否还能依据证据和经济状况来制定利率——或者说，货 币政策是否会受政治压力或胁迫所左右。" 市场已经用"真金白银"投票，随着鲍威尔遭刑事调查消息传出，黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under severe scrutiny as a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell has been initiated, raising concerns about the influence of political pressure on monetary policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The U.S. federal prosecutors are investigating Powell regarding potential false statements made to Congress about a renovation project, which has been interpreted as a tactic to undermine the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [1][2] - Powell has publicly stated that the investigation is a pretext to challenge the Fed's ability to make decisions based on economic evidence rather than political pressure [1][5] - Trump's ongoing attacks on Powell, including threats of dismissal, highlight a broader strategy to exert control over the Fed, particularly as the 2026 debt rollover approaches [2][3] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that the investigation aims to pressure Powell into lowering interest rates, thereby weakening his decision-making autonomy and damaging his reputation [3][6] - The potential replacement of Powell could lead to a shift in the Fed's structure, with Trump having already nominated several members aligned with his economic views [6][7] - The investigation sets a precedent for using legal means to challenge policy disagreements, which could threaten the independence of future Fed chairs [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's independence has led to significant market volatility, with a notable increase in gold prices and a decline in U.S. equities and bonds [1][7] - Analysts predict that if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to a fundamental restructuring of global asset pricing, with the U.S. dollar losing its status as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against the weakening dollar and potential inflation, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach between $5000 and $5200 per ounce [8][9]