以下文章来源于capitalwatch ，作者宏观分析师 capitalwatch . 比较两人的背景、货币政策思维及其潜在影响，以及当前网络舆情，谁的当选机会更大？ 两位候选人的背景概述 我们是一个聚焦全球资本市场的高影响力财经账号。 内容由华尔街交易员与研究员共同撰写，提供市场深度解读、机构级逻辑与实时判断。 这里没有喊 单，没有套路，只有用数据和常识说话的分析。 我们希望把复杂的金融世界，讲给真正关心自己资产的人听。 导语：沃什的政策更注重长期稳定，而哈塞特则可能放大短期市场繁荣，但增加政治干预隐患。 在2025年美国经济面临通胀压力、地缘政治不确定性和技术变革的背景下，美联储主席一职的继任者备受瞩目。 唐纳德·特朗普总统最近表示，他"倾向于沃什或哈塞特"，这一表态引发了市场波动和广泛讨论。 凯文·沃什，前美联储理事，以其鹰派立场和金融危机应对经验闻名； 凯文·哈塞特，前白宫经济顾问，则以鸽派视角和亲增长政策著称。 凯文·沃什是一位经验丰富的金融政策专家，生于1970年，毕业于斯坦福大学和哈佛法学院。他曾在摩根士丹利担任投资银行家，并在乔治·W·布 什政府时期出任白宫经济政策特别助理。2006年至201 ...

在2025年12月的华盛顿，政治与金融的交汇点再次成为焦点。美国总统特朗普对现任美联储主席鲍威尔 的不满由来已久，双方多次公开对抗。 11月30日，特朗普在接受媒体采访时直言，他已敲定下一任美联储主席人选，但神秘地未透露姓名。次 日，具有"美联储通讯社"之称的《华尔街日报》记者尼克·蒂米拉奥斯（Nick Timiraos）爆料：尽管候选 人面试仍在进行，特朗普已"内定"其长期顾问、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）。这 一消息如一石激起千层浪，不仅震动了华尔街，也让全球投资者重新审视美联储未来的独立性与货币政 策走向。 哈西特，这位62岁的保守派经济学家，以其坚定的特朗普忠诚度和务实的政策主张，一跃成为华盛顿权 力游戏中的关键人物。他并非华尔街的"金童"，而是一位从马萨诸塞州小镇走出的学者型官僚。他的崛 起，不仅源于学术背景和丰富履历，更得益于与特朗普的深厚默契，以及他对经济政策的独特解读。 从小镇少年到经济学精英：哈西特的成长之路 哈西特于1963年3月20日出生在马萨诸塞州格林菲尔德（Greenfield），一个典型的美国东北部小镇。这 里远离曼哈顿的喧嚣，居民多为中产阶级，经济 ...

Group 1 - Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced their first daily outflows in over a week, with a net outflow of $51.28 million, breaking a seven-day inflow streak that had accumulated nearly $3 billion [1] - Assets under management for bitcoin ETFs remain above $150 billion, despite the recent outflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious outlook on future policy, highlighted by Chair Jerome Powell, has shifted market sentiment, leading to a pullback in risk assets [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first cut of the year [2] - Updated projections from the Fed indicated only two more rate cuts in 2025 and fewer in 2026 than the market had anticipated [2] - Powell's warnings about "elevated" inflation and rising "downside risks" to employment contributed to a hawkish interpretation of the rate cut, affecting market confidence [3] Group 3 - Ethereum ETFs also faced redemptions, with net outflows of $1.89 million following a previous exit of $61.7 million [3] - Cryptocurrency prices showed slight increases, with Bitcoin rising approximately 0.3% and Ether increasing by 1.7% in the last 24 hours [4] - The broader CoinDesk 20 index rose by 2%, indicating a general positive movement in the cryptocurrency market [4]

Group 1 - Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure from President Trump, who is considering nominating a successor to weaken Powell's influence before his term ends in May 2024 [1] - Two Republican candidates named "Kevin" are competing for the next Federal Reserve Chair position, with Kevin Hassett emerging as a strong contender against Kevin Warsh [1][3] - Hassett has shifted his stance and is now open to accepting the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump multiple times in June [3] Group 2 - Hassett has become a vocal critic of Powell, accusing him of making decisions based on partisan bias rather than economic data [3] - Warsh, who has been a candidate for the position for years, is also actively seeking meetings to discuss the role, indicating his continued interest [3][4] - Warsh is attempting to pivot from his previous support for hawkish monetary policy to a more collaborative approach with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4] Group 3 - Warsh's connections in the financial elite and his media presence may give him an edge over Hassett, who has been more aligned with Trump's inner circle [5] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is in a unique position to influence the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, as Trump has expressed interest in having him take on both roles [5]

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

Group 1 - The US stock market has experienced fluctuations due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's decisions, with the Dow Jones remaining within a range of 42,700 to 42,600 this week [1] - The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy stance is interpreted as hawkish, maintaining the overnight interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, with a warning from Chairman Powell about potential inflation from tariffs [3] - The Fed's economic forecast indicates a mild stagflation scenario, with expected economic growth slowing to 1.4% this year, an unemployment rate of 4.5%, and inflation reaching 3% [3] Group 2 - Current stock risk exposure is high enough to trigger significant risk-averse actions, while also being low enough to encourage buying on dips, indicating that any minor event could lead to volatility in the US stock market [4] - Hedge funds continued to buy stocks last week, but at a slower pace, while mutual funds saw an outflow of $10 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - The upcoming rebalancing by pension and target-date funds, which are expected to sell $89 billion worth of stocks, may further weigh on the market in the coming days [4] Group 3 - As trade tensions ease, there is a partial recovery in US economic confidence, but investors are advised to reconsider geopolitical issues before increasing positions, as the Middle East situation could catalyze further market volatility [7] - The potential for rising energy prices due to prolonged Middle Eastern conflicts could exacerbate inflation fears, negatively impacting the US stock market [7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - During the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday, overseas precious metal prices dropped significantly. From 15:00 on April 3 to 7:00 this morning on April 7, the price of the COMEX gold main contract fell 3.75% to $3033.1 per ounce, and the London gold price fell 3.71% to $3011.74 per ounce. The price of the COMEX silver main contract fell 13.7% to $28.8 per ounce, and the London silver price fell 12.87% to $28.93 per ounce [2]. - The decline in precious metal prices was mainly affected by two factors. Firstly, the Trump administration announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs", but gold and silver were not on the list, ending the previous market's expected trading on potential US tariffs. Secondly, after Powell's speech on Friday, US stocks and precious metal prices further declined, and the Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain hawkish. In the short term, precious metal prices, especially silver, still have room to fall [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - COMEX gold main contract price fell 3.75% to $3033.1 per ounce, London gold price fell 3.71% to $3011.74 per ounce. COMEX silver main contract price fell 13.7% to $28.8 per ounce, London silver price fell 12.87% to $28.93 per ounce [2]. - Au(T+D) price rose 0.98% to 738.97 yuan/gram, Ag(T+D) price fell 1.47% to 8263 yuan/kg. London gold price fell 2.04% to $3054.5 per ounce, London silver price fell 3.49% to $31.34 per ounce [5]. Factors Affecting Price Changes - The end of the previous market's expected trading on potential US tariffs due to the "reciprocal tariffs" policy and the subsequent exemption list [3]. - The Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance and the slowdown of tariff trading [4]. Market Expectations - In the short term, precious metal prices, especially silver, still have room to fall. The Shanghai silver main contract is expected to open at the limit - down price today, with a reference opening price of 7535 yuan/kg. The Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate in the range of 694 - 720 yuan/gram [4].