Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The selling pressure after the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has started will drag down the raw sugar price center. The expected increase in Brazilian production and the expected increase in sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere's new season will suppress the raw sugar price. Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio may support the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down the sugar price. Considering the recent weak trend of raw sugar, the sugar price will maintain a weak operation in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend in the short term due to the expected global supply - demand surplus, but there may be buying support at lower levels. In China, the faster - than - expected sales - to - production ratio supports the spot price, but due to the short - term weakness of raw sugar, the rising profit of out - of - quota imports, and the upcoming pressure of processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: For SR2509, the closing price was 5,805, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 163,903 (up 15.64%) and an open interest of 298,087 (up 3.77%); for SR2601, the closing price was 5,632, up 26 (0.46%), with a trading volume of 21,265 (up 20.44%) and an open interest of 107,409 (up 2.23%); for SR2511, the closing price was 5,690, up 21 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 23,328 (down 0.21%) and an open interest of 55,383 (up 2.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were as follows: 6120 in Liuzhou, 5895 in Kunming, 6040 in Nanning, 6150 in Bayuquan, 6135 in Rizhao, and 6410 in Xi'an. The price in Kunming increased by 30, and the price in Xi'an increased by 20. The basis in Liuzhou was 430, in Kunming was 205, in Nanning was 350, in Bayuquan was 460, in Rizhao was 445, and in Xi'an was 720 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR11 - SR01 spread was 58, down 5; the SR09 - SR11 spread was 115, up 225; the SR09 - SR01 spread was 173, unchanged [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4445, the out - of - quota price was 5682, with a spread of 438 compared to Liuzhou, 453 compared to Rizhao, and - 50 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4494, the out - of - quota price was 5694, with a spread of 426 compared to Liuzhou, 441 compared to Rizhao, and - 62 compared to the futures market [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International**: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. The new Brazilian crushing season's selling pressure and production increase expectations, along with the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's new - season production, will suppress the raw sugar price. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [4]. - **Domestic**: The fast sales - to - production ratio supports the sugar price, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weak raw sugar trend will drag down the domestic sugar price in the short term [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar futures will mainly follow the raw sugar price and maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10].

// 化。前期ICE原糖跌至18美分/磅以下触发国内买船,近月采购量超百万吨,预计6月中下旬起进口糖将陆续到港,三季度供 结 应压力增加。巴西配额外进口成本降至5980元/吨,与国内现货价差缩窄至150元/吨,进口利润修复刺激后续采购。1-3月 糖浆及预拌粉进口24.2万吨（折糖约15. 6万吨）,低价替代品持续挤占国产糖消费空间。综上所述,郑糖维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ------ SR2009 ==== SR2109 SR2109- ...