2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...

（来源：沐甜科技） 郑糖05合约夜盘下跌1元/吨，收于5132元/吨。现货方面，广西集团报价为5310至5410元/吨，云南集团 报价为5180至5300元/吨，加工糖厂报价为5670至5900元/吨，糖厂下调20-30元不等，市场随采随用。现 货价格不断下调，01产业接货和交货意愿均偏低，低价下的现货市场活力不足。郑糖日盘增仓下行，净 空头席位加仓明显，昨日主力合约增仓近5.2万手，低点不断下破，最低触及5124，反应增产压力，关 注加速下破后的市场情绪。 05合约日内参考区间 5100-5160 2、巴西：11月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为1599万吨，同比减少21.08%；产糖量为72.4万 吨，同比减少32.94%。截至11月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为5.92亿吨，同比下降 1.92%；制糖比为51.12%，较去年同期的48.34%增加2.78%；产糖量为3990.4万吨，同比增幅为1.13%。 市场分析： ICE原糖03合约下跌8个点，收于14.85美分/磅；伦敦白糖03合约下跌2.4美元，收于423.8美元/吨。巴西 进入榨季末期，丰产充分计价。昨夜公布11月下半月生产数据，双周 ...

市场分析： （来源：沐甜科技） 来源：沐甜科技 产业动态 1、巴西：巴西11月出口糖和糖蜜330.23万吨，较去年同期的339.02万吨减少8.79万吨，降幅2.59%。 2、中国：根据商务部，2025年11月上半月关税配额外原糖实际到港11.45万吨，11月预报到港36.35万 吨。 ICE原糖03合约上涨1个点，收于14.83美分/磅；伦敦白糖03合约下跌2.9美元，收于422.8美元/吨。原糖 基本面未有明显变化，巴西进入榨季末期，丰产充分计价。北半球开榨前期的产量增幅符合市场预期， 目前价格无法吸引印度出口。原糖走入寻底的区间震荡格局，等待贸易流的新变量刺激。 郑糖01合约夜盘上涨2元/吨，收于5339元/吨。05合约下跌1元/吨，收于5243元/吨。现货方面，广西集 团报价为5390至5490元/吨，云南集团报价为5250至5410元/吨，加工糖厂报价为5700至5900元/吨，报价 与前日基本持平，以刚需采买为主。01超跌反弹，虚实盘比仍偏高，盘中出现部分多头买盘，产业开始 有部分接货需求出现，空头减仓。短期需观察01产业接货和交货意愿，以及反弹后的现货购销情况，05 资金净空头抑制05上方空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Group 1 - The market continues to be pressured by ongoing concerns over supply surplus, impacting prices significantly [1] - ICE raw sugar is facing a critical test at 16 cents, with potential for further declines if it breaks below this level [1]

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.37%, closing at 15.88 cents per pound on Friday, June 27 [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 1.89% during the same period [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 5.19%, while coffee "C" futures dropped by 3.95% [1] - Robusta coffee futures also saw a decline of 2.11% [1] - New York cocoa futures rose by 9.52%, reaching $8,947 per ton, continuing an upward trend [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 6.88% [1] - ICE cotton futures experienced a rise of 3.93% [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core View - Zheng sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as the expected increase in global sugar supply, upcoming imports in China, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Data - On June 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6130 yuan/ton, in Kunming was 5835 yuan/ton, in Dali, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Rizhao, Shandong was 6185 yuan/ton [4] - SR09 futures price was 5667 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan, and SR01 was 5539 yuan/ton with an increase of 6 yuan [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2035 with an increase of 0.0040, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 with an increase of 0.0212, and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decrease of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar's main contract was 16.54, the price of London white sugar's main contract was 573 with an increase of 3, and the price of Brent crude oil's main contract was 75.18 [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April 2025 increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, indicating a strong global supply - surplus pattern [4] - The previous drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents per pound triggered Chinese sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive in China from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil after out - of - quota was reduced to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, which stimulated subsequent purchases [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to remain volatile and weak due to factors such as increased global sugar supply, upcoming imports, narrowed price differences between domestic and imported sugar, and the impact of low - cost substitutes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Domestic Sugar Spot and Futures Prices - Domestic sugar spot prices in different regions on May 20, 2025: Nanning warehouse in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton, Kunming in Yunnan was 5985 yuan/ton, Dali in Yunnan was 5915 yuan/ton, and Rizhao in Shandong was 6270 yuan/ton [4]. - Futures prices: SR09 was 5849 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; SR01 was 5710 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SR09 - 01 was 139 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Commodity Prices - Exchange rates on May 20, 2025: RMB to USD was 7.2346, up 0.0080; Brazilian real to RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; Indian rupee to RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - International commodity prices: ICE raw sugar主力 was 17.48, unchanged; London white sugar主力 was 573, up 3; Brent crude oil主力 was 65.48, unchanged [4]. Supply - side Factors - Brazil's central - southern region: In the second half of April, the sugarcane crushing volume increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio remained high. The expected sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the pattern of loose global supply [4]. - Imports: The earlier drop of ICE raw sugar below 18 cents/pound triggered domestic sugar purchases. The near - month purchase volume exceeded one million tons, and imported sugar is expected to arrive at ports from mid - to - late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter. The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, and the price difference with domestic spot prices narrowed to 150 yuan/ton, stimulating subsequent purchases [4]. - Substitutes: From January to March, the import of syrups and premixes was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), and low - cost substitutes continued to squeeze the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4].