1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the sugar market, including prices, spreads, and supply - demand situations both domestically and internationally, along with macro and industry news [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.12; the mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5547 yuan per ton, down 2 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 15 - spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, up 1; the mainstream spot basis is 393 yuan per ton, up 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - India's monsoon precipitation has strengthened again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 tons exported in August (down 5% year - on - year) and 359 tons in July (down 5% year - on - year). Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 tons from 4590 tons. China imported 74 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that China's sugar production will be 1116 tons in the 24/25 season and 1120 tons in the 25/26 season, with consumption of 1580 tons and 1590 tons respectively, and imports of 500 tons in both seasons. As of May 31, 24/25 season production was 1116 tons (up 120 tons), sales were 811 tons (up 152 tons), and the sales rate was 72.7%. As of July 31, 24/25 season cumulative imports were 324 tons (down 34 tons). In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season and 488 tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16, 25/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.6 - percentage - point decline in cumulative sugarcane crushing, with 2289 tons of sugar produced (down 112 tons), and the MIX was 52.51% (up 3.37 percentage points). ISMA/NFCSF predicts India's 25/26 season sugar production to be 3490 tons (up 540 tons from 24/25). Thailand's 24/25 season production was 1008 tons (up 127 tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 14 日 白糖：基差偏空 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 报告导读： 国际市场方面，偏弱运行。行业方面，市场处于强现实弱预期格局，趋势上 24/25 榨季全球供应大幅 短缺偏多，25/26 榨季预计南北半球均恢复性增产累库偏空。节奏上虽然巴西中南部压榨进度同比仍偏 缓，但出口同比下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧，印度季风降水量高于 LPA 偏空，纽约原糖趋势偏弱震 荡。关注巴西生产和出口节奏、印度相关产业政策。 国内市场方面，基差偏空。24/25 榨季，国内市场维持连续增产、生产成本下降预期，糖浆和预拌粉 进口政策收紧，国内定价向上锚定配额外进口成本。25/26 榨季，市场预期广西出糖率下降，生产成本上 升。趋势上郑糖跟随原糖，节奏上围绕进口节奏展开交易，常规进口同比降幅收窄，糖浆、预拌粉进口仍 维持较高水平，现货偏空，基差偏空。 风险点：宏观环境，主产国汇率，印度产业政策，国内进口政策。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 （1）本周市场回顾 国际市场方面，美元指数 97.62(前值 97.74） ...