"中秋节前半个月订单开始增多，部分名酒价格呈现小幅回升"，一位资深白酒经销商认为今年中秋行情 环比出现回暖，但如今的节日效应跟以前完全不能比，旺季不旺已是事实，短暂的市场提振只是昙花一 现。 进入9月，白酒行业开始为"双节"忙碌。笔者走访一线了解到，今年中秋前夕，白酒价格仍普遍倒挂， 部分名酒因需求回升价格小幅上涨。再加上今年白酒企业集体发力终端动销，市场层面也释放了动销回 暖的积极信号。这一趋势让部分从业者乐观预判"双节"行情。 不过，受消费信心不足、商务礼品需求收缩及消费者趋于理性等因素影响，业内预计"双节"整体销量仍 小幅下降，行业性库存挤压或持续影响春节预期。 部分名酒价格小幅回升，终端囤货预期低 今年中秋、国庆是名酒价格筑底反弹的窗口期？ 9月初，作为白酒价格"晴雨表"的飞天茅台原箱批价跌破1800元/瓶，散瓶批发价跌至1770元/瓶。但近期 飞天茅台价格站上1800元关口，第八代五粮液批价上涨80元/箱，终端成交价格上涨100元以上，多个区 域涨幅达到200元/箱。 笔者调研发现，临近中秋，部分白酒价格小幅上涨。成都一经销商日前在朋友圈发文称，"临近双节， 很多产品已经开始涨价。25日所有名酒价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white wine industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices collapsing and inventory piling up, indicating a major market correction and a shift in consumer behavior [11][49][50]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The wholesale market for white wine is facing severe challenges, with merchants reporting late opening hours and insufficient logistics to meet demand [6][7]. - High-end wines like Moutai and Wuliangye have seen drastic price drops, with Moutai's price falling below 2000 yuan and Wuliangye's "Pu Wu" dropping below 800 yuan per bottle [9][10]. - The overall white wine market, valued at 700 billion yuan, is undergoing a "multi-layer collapse," affecting both high-end and mass-market products [10][11]. Group 2: Inventory and Sales Challenges - Merchants are struggling with unsold inventory, with some reporting losses of up to 30,000 yuan daily due to stagnant sales [14][18]. - The impact of previous alcohol bans and regulations has led to a significant reliance on non-market consumption, which is now being challenged [20]. - Many distributors are facing pressure to return unsold stock as online prices undercut offline sales, leading to widespread losses [45]. Group 3: Historical Context and Industry Evolution - The white wine industry previously thrived on a "spiral of income and consumption," with consistent price increases and high demand, but this has changed dramatically post-pandemic [22][26]. - The influx of new players during the industry's boom years has led to overproduction and excessive inventory, creating a precarious situation for many distributors [23][25]. - The pandemic has exacerbated existing issues, with a decline in production and increasing inventory levels among listed companies [28]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Future Outlook - There is a perception that younger consumers are moving away from traditional white wine, but this may be a misunderstanding of their preferences for quality over quantity [52][56]. - The aging management of wine companies is failing to adapt to changing market dynamics, leading to outdated marketing strategies [60][62]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from speculative buying to genuine consumption, indicating a potential return to more sustainable market practices [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing for 2024 and Q1 2025, highlighting the focus on Moutai 1935 and its future development strategy, emphasizing collaboration within the industry to foster rational consumption and explore differentiated development paths [1][4]. Group 1: Moutai 1935 Sales Performance - Moutai 1935 achieved sales of 5 billion yuan in its first year of 2022, increased to 11 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 12 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its status as a rapidly growing product in the liquor industry [1]. - Despite the impressive sales growth, Moutai 1935's market price has significantly declined, with the market transaction price dropping from 1,200 yuan to around 700 yuan per bottle as of 2024 [2][4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics and Market Challenges - Moutai 1935's official retail price was set at 1,188 yuan, but the market price has fallen below the factory price of 798 yuan, indicating a serious price inversion issue [2][4]. - The decline in price is attributed to various factors, including structural adjustments in the macroeconomic environment, reduced demand for high-end liquor due to changes in consumption patterns, and increased competition in the market [8][10][13]. Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Plans - Moutai is focusing on enhancing the brand's core value by improving consumer engagement, optimizing channels, and upgrading product quality to stabilize sales and market presence [7][14]. - The company has established an independent Moutai 1935 division to enhance brand management and market responsiveness, indicating a shift towards a more structured approach to brand development [14][18]. - Moutai plans to expand its product line and improve market coverage through new specifications and partnerships with various platforms, aiming to strengthen its market position and address the supply-demand imbalance [16][18].