白酒周期调整到哪个阶段？20251021 摘要 中秋动销符合预期但未转正，商务需求疲软和宴席场景修复缓慢是主因。 股价受科技板块资金流入影响有所反弹，但整体仍受压。 预计动销降幅将持续收窄至明年二季度转正，大幅下跌可能性降低，动 销或已见底。但春节期间可能仍为负增长。 白酒行业库存周期长，复苏缓慢。渠道库存尚未完全去化，品牌分化明 显，强势品牌仍在加库存，其他品牌被迫去库存。 经销商借中秋国庆旺季全面去库，打款下降幅度大于动销，多数酒企全 年目标难完成，三季度报表预期下修。 三季度报表预计显著低于预期，但报表向实际销售收敛，反映市场真实 状况，有助于投资者更准确评估市场。 实际动销下滑 20%-30%，报表下滑幅度较小，酒企努力控制结果。预 计三、四季度降幅可能进一步扩大。 预计报表转正契机在明年二季度，与动销同步回升。部分酒企利润端已 转正，可能率先筑底回升。当前应持中性偏乐观态度，关注茅台批价及 春节动销。 Q&A 白酒行业在今年（2025 年）受到敬酒令的影响，动销情况如何？未来动销趋 势如何？ 今年白酒行业受敬酒令影响，动销基数较低。中秋国庆期间，整体动销下滑幅 度超过 20%，秋糖也未出现超预期亮点 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 232.08 CNY [1][10] Core Views - The company shows resilient performance with steady growth in revenue, despite a slight decline in profit margins due to product mix adjustments [4][9] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside of Shanxi, with significant growth in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [9] - The product portfolio, particularly the "Glass Fen" and "Qinghua 20" series, is expected to maintain strong demand and adaptability in various market conditions [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 35,471 million CNY, reflecting a slight decline of 1.5% [7] - Operating profit for 2023 was 14,224 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 15,952 million CNY, indicating a decrease of 3.5% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 10,438 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9%. The forecast for 2025 is 11,803 million CNY, showing a decline of 3.6% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 8.56 CNY, projected to be 9.67 CNY in 2025 [7][10] Market Performance Summary - The company's stock price as of September 2, 2025, was 200.14 CNY, with a 52-week high of 232.57 CNY and a low of 142 CNY [1] - The company's absolute performance over the past week was -3.73%, with a 12-month performance of 23.75% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the short-term impact on consumption scenarios and the long-term focus on the bottoming out of the cycle and strategic choices of liquor companies, particularly highlighting the investment opportunities in leading liquor companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] - The current adjustment period is deeper than the previous one from 2012-2015, with greater pressures from economic and policy backgrounds, leading to a more severe short-term impact on consumption scenarios compared to the last adjustment period [1] - The report identifies two key points for long-term observation: the way the liquor cycle bottoms out and the strategic choices made by companies during this adjustment period, which will determine which companies can navigate through the cycle [1] Group 2 - The report outlines key signals for the liquor industry to identify the bottoming out, including the performance expectations of liquor companies and the pricing of Moutai, which serve as leading indicators for stock price bottoms [2] - It suggests focusing on the current period leading up to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day for potential investment opportunities, as performance expectations are likely to reach a low point during this time [2] - The report indicates that the supply of Moutai during the upcoming festive season may represent the low point of pricing in this adjustment cycle [2] Group 3 - The report discusses how to assess the bottoming out of market capitalization for leading liquor companies, recommending the selection of companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields during counter-cyclical periods [3] - Two methods are proposed for estimating the market capitalization bottom: cautious profit assumptions for the next three years combined with required dividend yield calculations, and assessing the asset value of companies with substantial aged liquor inventory [3]