Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 232.08 CNY [1][10] Core Views - The company shows resilient performance with steady growth in revenue, despite a slight decline in profit margins due to product mix adjustments [4][9] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence outside of Shanxi, with significant growth in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [9] - The product portfolio, particularly the "Glass Fen" and "Qinghua 20" series, is expected to maintain strong demand and adaptability in various market conditions [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 35,471 million CNY, reflecting a slight decline of 1.5% [7] - Operating profit for 2023 was 14,224 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 30.8%. The forecast for 2025 is 15,952 million CNY, indicating a decrease of 3.5% [7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 10,438 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9%. The forecast for 2025 is 11,803 million CNY, showing a decline of 3.6% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 8.56 CNY, projected to be 9.67 CNY in 2025 [7][10] Market Performance Summary - The company's stock price as of September 2, 2025, was 200.14 CNY, with a 52-week high of 232.57 CNY and a low of 142 CNY [1] - The company's absolute performance over the past week was -3.73%, with a 12-month performance of 23.75% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the short-term impact on consumption scenarios and the long-term focus on the bottoming out of the cycle and strategic choices of liquor companies, particularly highlighting the investment opportunities in leading liquor companies ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1] - The current adjustment period is deeper than the previous one from 2012-2015, with greater pressures from economic and policy backgrounds, leading to a more severe short-term impact on consumption scenarios compared to the last adjustment period [1] - The report identifies two key points for long-term observation: the way the liquor cycle bottoms out and the strategic choices made by companies during this adjustment period, which will determine which companies can navigate through the cycle [1] Group 2 - The report outlines key signals for the liquor industry to identify the bottoming out, including the performance expectations of liquor companies and the pricing of Moutai, which serve as leading indicators for stock price bottoms [2] - It suggests focusing on the current period leading up to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day for potential investment opportunities, as performance expectations are likely to reach a low point during this time [2] - The report indicates that the supply of Moutai during the upcoming festive season may represent the low point of pricing in this adjustment cycle [2] Group 3 - The report discusses how to assess the bottoming out of market capitalization for leading liquor companies, recommending the selection of companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields during counter-cyclical periods [3] - Two methods are proposed for estimating the market capitalization bottom: cautious profit assumptions for the next three years combined with required dividend yield calculations, and assessing the asset value of companies with substantial aged liquor inventory [3]