| 茅台飞天 | | | 2025年11月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (公众号: 今日酒价) | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | (2 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1690 | 1665 ↓ | | 2 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1655 | 1650 ↑ | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1720 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1685 | 1685 | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1950 | 1950 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1850 | 1850 | | 公斤茅台(原) | 53度/1L | 2980 | 2980 | | 43度飞天(原) | 43度/500ml | 765 | 765 | | 43度飞天(散) | 43度/500ml | 750 | 750 | | 43度喜宴(红) | 43度/500ml | ୧୧୧ | 655 | | 巽风飞天 | 53度/375ml | 1 ...

茅台的价格，是经济消费的一面镜子 封面 I 豆包AI 作者I 李东阳 报道 I 李东阳朋友圈 谁是中国人心中最顶级的奢侈品，最通用的社交货币？ 答案各有千秋，但茅台一定是绕不开的选项。 所谓"万顷明珠一瓮收，君王到此也低头"，千百年来茅台在历史的长河中肆意流淌，其身份标签早已不再是一款普通的酒，而是人情世故的浓缩，金融产 品的内核。 | | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年11月17日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 25年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1680 | 1680 | | 2 25年飞天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1655 | 1655 | | 24年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1720 | | 24年飞天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1685 | 1685 | 图源：今日酒价 号称能理财、能抗通胀、永不下跌的神话市场第一硬通货茅台，价格还是崩盘了。 窥探下跌的原因，直接挂钩的就是经济。 正所谓茅台的价格，是经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership change at Kweichow Moutai, with Chen Hua replacing Zhang Deqin as chairman, has sparked discussions about the future strategic direction of the company and the broader implications for the liquor industry during a period of significant adjustment [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership Changes in the Industry - Kweichow Moutai's leadership change is part of a broader trend in the liquor industry, where high-level personnel changes have accelerated, with over 50 companies reporting leadership shifts in 2025 alone [5][6]. - Other notable changes include the management transition at Zhenjiu Li Du, where former CEO Yan Tao became vice chairman, and the appointment of Tang Xiangyang as the new CEO [3][4]. - The leadership reshuffles are not limited to major players; regional brands are also experiencing urgent changes, such as the resignation of Yang Weiguo from Yanghe and the appointment of Gu Yu as chairman [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, transitioning from a "golden era" of growth to a period characterized by declining volumes and profits, with Kweichow Moutai's revenue growth slowing to 7.28% and net profit growth to 5.25% in Q2 2025 [6][8]. - Other companies, such as Yanghe, reported a 35.32% decline in revenue and a 45.34% drop in net profit, highlighting the widespread pressure across the sector [8]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on transformation strategies, with Kweichow Moutai emphasizing a shift from selling liquor to selling lifestyle, while Yanghe pursues a dual strategy of high-end and national expansion [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Inventory Issues - The liquor industry is grappling with high inventory levels, with 58.1% of distributors reporting increased stock compared to the previous year, leading to a challenging sales environment [10]. - The phenomenon of price inversion, where retail prices fall below factory prices, is exacerbating the difficulties for distributors, resulting in a "vicious cycle" of price cuts and unsold inventory [10]. - As distributors face cash flow issues and some withdraw from networks, companies are compelled to adjust their management teams to meet sales targets [10]. Group 4: Strategic Innovations and Consumer Adaptation - The industry is shifting from reactive measures to proactive strategies, focusing on governance innovation and adapting to changing consumer demands [11][13]. - Companies are exploring new product offerings and marketing strategies to cater to younger consumers, such as Kweichow Moutai's introduction of blueberry sparkling wine and Wuliangye's lower-alcohol products [13][15]. - The transformation reflects a broader trend towards personalized and diverse drinking experiences, moving away from traditional consumption patterns [15].

Core Insights - The wholesale reference prices for Moutai have decreased as of October 30, with specific declines noted for both the 25-year and 24-year Moutai products [1][2] Price Summary - The price for 25-year Moutai in original packaging has dropped by 10 yuan to 1690 yuan per bottle, while the price for 25-year Moutai in loose packaging has decreased by 20 yuan to 1660 yuan per bottle [1][2] - The 24-year Moutai in original packaging has seen a reduction of 30 yuan, now priced at 1750 yuan per bottle, and the loose packaging has fallen by 35 yuan to 1700 yuan per bottle [1][2] - The prices for 23-year Moutai remain unchanged at 1950 yuan for original and 1850 yuan for loose packaging [2]

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is currently experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with sales performance not yet turning positive despite meeting expectations during the Mid-Autumn Festival. The main reasons for this include weak business demand and slow recovery of banquet scenarios [1][2] - The industry is expected to see a gradual narrowing of sales decline until it turns positive in the second quarter of next year, with a significant drop in sales unlikely [1][2] Key Points on Sales and Inventory - Actual sales have declined by approximately 20%-30%, while reported figures show a smaller decline, indicating that many companies are controlling their results [5][6] - The inventory cycle in the white liquor industry is long, leading to a slow recovery. Channel inventory has not been fully cleared, and it will take several months to do so [3][4] - Strong brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are still increasing inventory, while other brands are forced to reduce it. This has created a significant brand differentiation in the market [3][4] Financial Performance and Reporting - Most liquor companies are unlikely to meet their annual targets due to a significant drop in payments, which is greater than the decline in sales. The third-quarter reports are expected to be significantly lower than anticipated [5][6] - The second quarter of next year is projected to be a turning point for the industry, with some companies already achieving profit recovery [8] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The overall performance of the white liquor sector has been disappointing this year, heavily impacted by the ban on alcohol consumption. However, due to ample market liquidity and low stock prices, the absolute bottom is believed to have been reached [9] - The stock price of leading companies like Moutai is supported by dividend yields, limiting downside potential. Future upward movement will depend on significant improvements in sales and a continued narrowing of declines [9][10] Future Outlook - The third-quarter reports will be crucial for assessing inventory clearance and market confidence. If both inventory and reports are cleaned up, the market may gain confidence for forward-looking allocations [10] - A neutral to slightly optimistic stance is recommended, with potential relative gains from short-term sales exceeding expectations and the rebound in stock prices [11]

Core Insights - The perception of liquor, particularly high-end baijiu, is shifting from an investment asset to a consumer product focused on enjoyment and quality [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Attributes and Market Trends - Baijiu, once viewed as a financial asset, is experiencing a decline in its investment appeal, with prices for premium brands like Moutai dropping significantly, reflecting a broader industry trend [2] - Moutai's price has decreased from over 3500 yuan to below 1800 yuan, with annual returns falling below 5% [2] - The best-selling price range for baijiu has shifted to 100-300 yuan, with mid-range products (300-800 yuan) seeing the fastest growth, now accounting for 35% of the market [2] Group 2: Consumer Preferences and Quality Focus - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing the intrinsic value of baijiu, such as quality, taste, and cultural significance, rather than its investment potential [3][5] - Recent consumer feedback highlights a shift towards taste and comfort as primary purchasing criteria, with many opting for high-quality, cost-effective options [5] - New product launches focusing on high quality and affordability are resonating well with consumers, as seen with the success of Yanghe's light bottle series [5] Group 3: Emotional and Cultural Consumption - The consumer base for baijiu is diversifying, with a notable increase in family and personal consumption scenarios, now accounting for 62% of total consumption [8] - Emotional factors are becoming increasingly important, with the significance of emotional resonance in purchasing decisions rising from 18% in 2020 to 43% in 2024 among younger consumers [8] - The Mid-Autumn Festival exemplifies this trend, as families gather to celebrate, reinforcing the cultural and emotional connections associated with baijiu consumption [10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting systemic challenges faced by leading companies in the liquor industry during a deep adjustment period [1][16]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.32%, and a net profit of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.34% [1][3]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to the downturn in the liquor sales market, leading to reduced sales volume and income [3][5]. - Operating cash flow decreased by 69.85% to 616 million yuan, indicating cash flow pressure due to slower sales collections and reduced advance payments [5]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to industry changes, the management initiated a "rest and recuperation" strategy starting in 2024, aiming to stabilize prices and assist channels in inventory reduction [6][8]. - The company reduced production by 51.63% and inventory by 34%, but the inventory turnover days remained high at 944.88 days, indicating challenges in managing stock levels [8]. Market Position and Competition - Yanghe's product structure is under pressure from both high-end and mass markets, with significant price drops in its premium products, reflecting a lack of brand recognition compared to competitors like Moutai and Wuliangye [9][20]. - The company faces challenges in the mass market, with ordinary liquor revenue declining by 27.24%, which is significantly higher than the industry average [13][20]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao gaining market share through effective strategies, further squeezing Yanghe's market space [13][20]. Consumer Trends and Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry is undergoing a profound transformation from rapid growth to high-quality development, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and changing consumer demands [16][18]. - The rise of the younger generation as consumers is driving diverse consumption habits, which Yanghe has struggled to adapt to, particularly in terms of product innovation and marketing strategies [11][18]. - The mid-range price segment (300-800 yuan) is particularly affected, with Yanghe's core product series experiencing a revenue decline of 39.2%, significantly above the industry average [18][20]. Future Outlook - Yanghe's future is challenged by its position in the market, lacking the premium pricing power of Moutai and the rapid market penetration of competitors like Fenjiu [20]. - The company's ability to navigate through quality upgrades, product innovation, and channel restructuring will be crucial for its survival and potential return to the top tier of the industry [20].

Group 1 - The new Moutai product priced at 7000 yuan per bottle sold out within 2 minutes, with 25,568 bottles available, generating sales of approximately 1.79 billion yuan [2][3] - The product is part of the celebration for the 70th anniversary of the Moutai five-star trademark, featuring a unique identity code on each bottle [3] - The discontinuation of the only "hundred-yuan level" product, Taiyuan liquor, was announced, which had achieved over 1 billion yuan in sales within 9 months of its launch [5] Group 2 - The wholesale price of Moutai's core products has experienced significant fluctuations, with the price of the 25-year flying Moutai dropping below 2000 yuan per bottle earlier this year [6] - As of August 8, the price of the 25-year flying Moutai is reported at 1975 yuan per bottle [6][7] - The stock price of Moutai has shown considerable volatility, with a slight decline of approximately 0.1% reported on the same day [7] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the market price of the new Moutai product may develop into a "one code one price" situation, with certain lucky numbers expected to have significant premium potential [5] - The white liquor industry is characterized by excessive competition and declining product prices, yet the fundamentals of listed companies remain relatively solid [8] - Recent societal trends against excessive competition and relaxed restrictions on dining consumption have positively impacted the secondary market performance of white liquor stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of a new Moutai product priced at 7000 yuan per bottle sold out within minutes, indicating strong demand and potential for future price appreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales - Moutai's new product, "Guizhou Moutai (Five-Star Trademark 70th Anniversary Commemorative)," was released on August 8, with a limited quantity of 25,568 bottles, generating sales of approximately 1.79 billion yuan within minutes of launch [2]. - The product features a unique identity code and is expected to create a "one code, one price" market situation, with certain lucky numbers potentially commanding higher premiums [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Moutai has decided to discontinue its only "hundred-yuan level" product, Taiyuan Wine, to optimize its product structure and enhance market competitiveness [5]. - The Taiyuan Wine, launched at 156 yuan per bottle, achieved sales exceeding 1 billion yuan within nine months, highlighting its popularity before discontinuation [5]. Group 3: Price Fluctuations - Moutai's core product prices have experienced significant volatility, with the price of 25-year Flying Moutai dropping below the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle earlier this year [7]. - As of August 8, the price for 25-year Flying Moutai was reported at 1975 yuan per bottle, reflecting ongoing fluctuations in the market [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Context - The white liquor industry is currently characterized by excessive competition and declining product prices, although the fundamentals of listed white liquor companies remain relatively solid [10]. - Recent societal trends and policy changes regarding dining consumption have positively impacted the secondary market for white liquor [10].