白酒中秋国庆跟踪电话会 20251007 摘要 双节期间白酒动销整体不及去年，但高端白酒如茅台、五粮液受送礼需 求影响跌幅较小，300-600 元价格带下滑最快。线上渠道分流部分线下 销量，导致线下经销商渠道下滑明显。 烟酒店销售分化严重，客情关系维护良好的烟酒店下滑幅度较小。洋河 通过控货调价，产品价格有所上升，但社会库存仍然较大。国缘终端库 存偏大，部分产品价格有所下降。 江苏地区，金士源回款进度较好，超出 65%，洋河约为 55%，整体回 款速度下降。金士源整体库存超三个月，中秋国庆期间动销好于同价位 其他产品，但收缩了费用投入。 安徽地区宴会市场增加，但终端店线下出货量减少，线上销售增长迅速。 古井贡酒整体销量与去年持平，但不同系列产品表现分化。300-500 元 价格带产品表现较弱。 安徽地区白酒价格总体稳定，但受政策影响，部分产品价格有所下降。 终端店库存量普遍不多，拼多多平台品牌酒利润极低，终端店分化加剧， 商超销量下滑。 Q&A 江苏地区在中秋国庆期间白酒动销情况如何？ 中秋国庆期间，江苏地区的白酒动销情况与去年同期相比有所下滑。洋河主要 以去库存为主，整体价格有所上升，例如梦三水晶版和梦六加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) phenomenon, with significant differentiation in sales performance across different price segments as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Mid to high-end liquor sales remain stable, supported by a loyal customer base, while low-end liquor sales are struggling [2] - Promotions in supermarkets have attracted more customers, contributing to better sales of mid to high-end liquor [3] - Overall, the white liquor market is showing a mild recovery month-on-month, but year-on-year sales are still expected to decline due to reduced demand for business gifts and more rational consumer behavior [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry is still in a destocking phase, with significant inventory pressure on second and third-tier liquor companies [4] - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the white liquor industry decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue saw a slight increase of 0.19% [4] - Over 58% of distributors reported an increase in inventory, with many facing price inversion issues, leading to an average inventory turnover period of 900 days [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue facing deep adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a "K" shaped differentiation in performance among companies [5] - Leading companies are likely to maintain positive growth in gift and banquet markets due to brand strength, while most companies will struggle with high inventory and weak consumer demand [5]

Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine market is experiencing a slow recovery, with channel payment sentiments not significantly improving, leading to weaker payment performance compared to actual sales [1][3] - The market is currently in a destocking phase, with large enterprises selling to distributors rather than returning payments to manufacturers, resulting in a pessimistic outlook for upstream production [1][6] Key Insights - **Consumer Demand**: - Demand is differentiated, with a focus on mass consumption below 300 yuan from late July to August, while September saw a shift towards business hospitality and gifting, heavily influenced by social customs and consumer sentiment [1][5] - Overall demand is suppressed, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day period [1][6] - **Pricing Trends**: - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has decreased to approximately 1,750 yuan due to increased supply from September quotas [1][8] - Other high-end brands like Wuliangye are facing greater price pressure, with continuous declines since June [4][10] - **Regional Performance**: - Demand varies significantly by region, with better performance in Zhejiang, southern Jiangsu, and Sichuan, while northern Jiangsu, Shandong, and some northwest areas are weaker due to stricter enforcement of alcohol bans [2][9] Financial Performance - Most white wine brands are still operating at a loss under the rebate mechanism, although brands with strong regional sales and brand recognition are performing relatively better [7][17] - The current market conditions are leading to a gradual decrease in sales feedback from downstream to upstream, indicating a larger drop in actual sales felt by producers [7] Market Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces multiple challenges, including constrained consumption scenarios, low consumer sentiment, and significant destocking pressures [4][17] - However, there are opportunities for growth if the economic environment improves and consumer confidence is restored post-holiday season [17][19] Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for Feitian Moutai suggests continued slight price fluctuations, while Wuliangye may continue to face downward pressure without major market disruptions [12][16] - The overall sentiment towards the white wine sector remains cautious, but there is potential for improvement in market fundamentals, particularly after the National Day holiday [19][23] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a standard allocation strategy for the white wine sector, categorizing companies into three groups for investment: high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, strong regional brands, and companies with potential for national expansion [20] Additional Notes - The recent reduction in holdings by the Huachuang Innovative Fund in Fenjiu is not expected to significantly impact its stock price due to the nature of the transaction [21][22]

Core Insights - The latest monitoring report indicates a downward trend in the prices of high-end liquor, with 9 out of 14 mainstream products experiencing price declines, leading to a collective "price anxiety" in the industry [1][2] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a slowdown in growth or even a decline in net profits for major liquor companies, marking the first drop in nearly a decade for some leading brands [1][2] - The price fluctuations are attributed to a combination of "inventory reduction" and "promotional wars," as companies increase promotional efforts to capture market share ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [1][2] Price Trends - Major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 have reported price declines compared to previous periods, reflecting a broader trend of insufficient demand [2][11] - The average retail prices for various liquor brands as of September 4 include: Moutai at 2223, Wuliangye at 964.92, and Guojiao at 320.34 [11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with weak demand in key consumption scenarios such as banquets and business gatherings exacerbating inventory issues [2][4] - High inventory levels have led to a reduction in the number of distributors for major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, indicating a contraction in the distribution network [4] Inventory Management Strategies - To alleviate channel pressure, many companies are shifting from traditional inventory pressure tactics to "controlled supply" methods, aiming to stabilize terminal prices [5] - However, this strategy has resulted in increased inventory levels at the production end, with the average inventory turnover days rising to 900 days, a 10% year-on-year increase [5] Upcoming Market Events - As the traditional peak season of Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, companies are preparing marketing campaigns, although this year's promotional activities appear less aggressive compared to previous years [6][8] - The subdued marketing efforts may be linked to last year's disappointing sales performance during the same period, where demand for business banquets and gifting declined [8] Policy Environment - Recent local policies, such as those in Shaoxing, are aimed at boosting consumption by providing subsidies for banquet expenditures, which may positively impact the liquor market [10]

Group 1 - The liquor sector is showing strength, with notable stock performances such as Jiu Gui Jiu hitting the daily limit, She De Jiu Ye rising over 9%, and Yi Li Te and Gu Jing Gong Jiu increasing over 6% [1] - Dongguan Securities indicates that the second quarter will pose performance pressure tests for the liquor industry, with internal performance showing divergence. Currently, it is still the off-season for liquor consumption, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in the second half of the year under a lower base [1] - Huaxin Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a destocking cycle, facing multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy. Liquor companies are actively taking self-rescue actions regarding channels, organization, and sales [1] Group 2 - Moutai's pricing has stabilized, and the performance expectations for Q2 have been largely released. Coupled with short-term policy expectations, the sector's cost-performance ratio continues to show value [1] - It is recommended to focus on cyclical stocks and high-dividend leaders within the liquor sector [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Liquor Industry Industry Overview - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is currently experiencing a phase similar to the second half of 2024, with characteristics reminiscent of 1998 [1][4] - The sector has entered an active destocking phase, which may be in its later stages [1][4] - The 2025 alcohol ban will have a profound impact on public consumption of liquor, significantly affecting mid- to low-end baijiu [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The recent rebound in the baijiu sector, with an index increase of approximately 10% since July, was primarily driven by capital inflow and favorable policies encouraging long-term investments in high-dividend stocks [2][9] - Leading companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe have become attractive due to their high Return on Equity (ROE) and dividend rates [2][9] - The launch of the Yalong River Hydropower Station has positively influenced the infrastructure-related baijiu sector [2][9] - The current economic environment is undergoing a transition between old and new momentum, suggesting that the adjustment period may be longer than in 2014 due to demographic changes and the rise of new industries affecting traditional consumption scenarios [1][4][6] Historical Context - Since 2000, the baijiu industry has undergone four complete cycles, with the current cycle being more complex due to external policy pressures and demographic shifts [5][6] - Previous adjustments (2012-2014) were influenced by tightening real estate policies and anti-corruption measures, leading to significant declines in net profits for high-end and mid-high-end baijiu companies [1][7] Current Market Conditions - The overall valuation of the baijiu sector is approaching levels seen in early 2023, with expectations for a stabilization phase starting in Q3 2025 [3][9] - The worst period of the current adjustment cycle is believed to have passed, with potential for positive monetary or fiscal policies to emerge in the latter half of the year [3][9] - The sector's performance is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and policy environments, with high-end baijiu companies showing quicker recovery rates [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The baijiu sector is classified as a cyclical quality asset, with recommendations to focus on high-end and mid-high-end brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, which are actively engaging in digital transformation and appealing to younger consumers [12][13] - Investors are advised to monitor the pace and intensity of policy releases, as these will significantly influence market dynamics and stock performance [10][14] - Specific stock selection strategies include focusing on companies with healthy inventory levels and those that are effectively managing their supply chains [13][14] Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to present trading opportunities, with limited downside risk for sector valuations, largely influenced by Moutai's pricing strategies [14] - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations for gradual recovery and stabilization in the baijiu market as inventory issues are addressed [10][11][14]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of low-priced light bottle liquor is becoming a favored choice among major liquor companies and consumers amid high inventory and price inversion in the liquor market. The introduction of high-line light bottle liquor priced around 59 yuan is seen as a strategic move to capture market share in a competitive landscape [1][11]. Market Dynamics - Major liquor brands like Yanghe and Yangshao are launching high-line light bottle liquor at competitive prices, with Yanghe's product priced at 59 yuan and Yangshao's at 58 yuan, directly competing with Fenjiu's popular product priced below 50 yuan [1][3]. - The light bottle liquor market is projected to reach a scale of 150 billion yuan by 2024, with the price segment below 100 yuan growing at an annual rate of 15%, making it a key battleground for liquor companies [1][13]. Consumer Trends - Younger consumers are shifting towards more rational and practical consumption habits, prioritizing quality over packaging, which aligns with the growing demand for high-quality, cost-effective products [1][11]. - The perception of light bottle liquor has evolved, with consumers now seeking both affordability and quality, breaking the outdated notion that light bottle equals low quality [13][15]. Competitive Landscape - The light bottle liquor market is categorized into three segments: national brands with significant sales, regional brands with local recognition, and innovative brands targeting younger consumers through emotional marketing [5][6]. - Major brands are focusing on brand building and promotion to enhance their market presence, leveraging their established reputations to attract consumers to their light bottle offerings [16]. Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces challenges such as product homogenization, limited profit margins, and the need for brands to clearly communicate their unique value propositions [17]. - The ongoing inventory reduction cycle is pushing leading liquor companies to compete for the "staple liquor" market, with a focus on quality breakthroughs to avoid price wars [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has seen a decline of 2.12% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.22 percentage points [2][14]. - Within the sector, soft drinks (+9.45%), snacks (+5.48%), and other alcoholic beverages (+4.98%) have shown the highest gains, while dairy products (-3.81%), liquor (-3.64%), and fermented seasoning products (-1.26%) have experienced the largest declines [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances include Junyao Health (+72.44%), Hainan Coconut Island (+20.26%), and Miaokelando (+19.95%) leading in gains, while Wufangzhai (-10.35%), ST Jiajia (-6.92%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (-5.41%) faced the largest losses [2][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage industry in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a year-to-date decline of 2.57% [14]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with soft drinks and snacks showing resilience while liquor and dairy face challenges [2][14]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides pricing data for key products, such as the price of Feitian Moutai at 2,130 RMB for original boxes and 2,050 RMB for bulk, reflecting a decrease of 25 RMB and 50 RMB respectively over two weeks [3][29]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is reported at 3.06 RMB per kilogram, down 8.4% year-on-year [36]. Key Events Tracking - The report notes that the food manufacturing sector's profit increased by 1.1% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, with total revenue reaching 713.58 billion RMB [4][55]. - Performance in the e-commerce space during the Tmall 618 event shows strong sales for brands like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store [4][55]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor segment, the report suggests focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while also considering regional leaders with favorable competitive dynamics [10][56]. - In the broader consumer goods category, the report highlights the rising popularity of yellow wine and the seasonal uptick in beer consumption, alongside strong performance in snack foods and energy drinks [10][56].

Core Viewpoint - The concert sponsorship by liquor companies has become a new marketing strategy, with initiatives like "buying liquor for tickets" emerging as a significant promotional tactic, although its effectiveness in inventory reduction is debated [2][11][12]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Major liquor brands, including Yanghe and Xijiu, are increasingly engaging in concert sponsorships, with the concert market projected to generate a total revenue of 79.629 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.61% [3][11]. - The trend of liquor companies sponsoring concerts has intensified over the past two years, with over 10 concerts sponsored by liquor brands since the beginning of 2023 [3][12]. - The "buy liquor for tickets" model is being widely adopted, with examples including Yanghe's sponsorship of Andy Lau's concert, where purchasing liquor products was necessary to obtain tickets [4][6]. Group 2: Marketing Strategies - The "buy liquor for tickets" strategy has been utilized by various liquor companies, with significant ticket prices requiring substantial liquor purchases, such as needing to buy over 5.8 million yuan worth of products for three tickets [6][8]. - Local liquor brands are also employing this strategy, with ticket prices linked to liquor purchases, such as the 2,088 yuan ticket requiring the purchase of six bottles of a specific liquor [8][9]. - The sponsorship of concerts not only increases brand exposure but also aims to drive sales through promotional tactics, although the actual sales impact is considered limited [11][12][13]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - Despite the short-term sales boost from concert sponsorships, the long-term effectiveness of the "buy liquor for tickets" model is questioned due to limited consumer purchasing power and challenges in tracking product distribution [11][13]. - The liquor industry is facing high inventory levels and competitive pressures, making traditional promotional methods less effective, thus prompting companies to explore concert sponsorships as a viable option [11][12]. - The success of the "buy liquor for tickets" model is contingent on the willingness of artists to participate, as some artists' teams may reject such marketing strategies due to concerns about fan impact [13][14].