Summary of the Sichuan Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The baijiu consumption peak season is approaching, with demand recovering to normal levels. Daily drinking demand accounts for 66%, while business consumption remains low and government consumption has virtually stagnated [1][3] - Major baijiu brands are experiencing a general price decline, with Moutai at approximately 1,680 RMB, Wuliangye at about 800 RMB, Guojiao 1573 at around 834 RMB, and Qinghualang at about 600 RMB. The rapid downward trend observed earlier in the year has slowed, and prices are stabilizing [1][4] Key Insights - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 have reached a phase of low wholesale prices, with limited room for further decline. Manufacturers are preparing for the year-end sales push, which may provide some upward price potential as they gear up for the 2026 Spring Festival sales [1][5] - Wuliangye's Q3 performance saw a decline of over 50%, primarily due to excessive dealer repayments in the first half of the year and rapid price declines, leading to reduced dealer enthusiasm and low inventory levels across brands [1][6] - Inventory levels for major brands are as follows: Moutai's non-standard products have about 1.5 months of inventory, Wuliangye's eighth generation has less than one month, and Guojiao 1573 has around two months of inventory, reflecting the actual market operations [1][7] Future Planning and Market Dynamics - Dealers have begun discussions with manufacturers regarding the 2026 sales plan, awaiting product planning and the results of the 1,218 awards. Stability in demand is a key consideration for planning, making the process cautious [1][8] - The demand structure in the Sichuan baijiu market is categorized into three types: banquet wine, self-drinking, and business wine. The price range for banquet wine has decreased from around 1,000 RMB to about 800 RMB, while self-drinking wine is primarily below 300 RMB [1][9] Consumer Behavior and Price Impact - Following Moutai's price drop to 1,640 RMB, consumer response has been positive, indicating an increase in consumption willingness. However, there has been no new trend of stockpiling [2][14] - The overall decline in baijiu prices has influenced consumer purchasing behavior, with consumers now buying more bottles at lower prices, although total spending has not significantly increased [15] - Non-standard Moutai, previously used for investment and collection, has seen increased demand in gifting scenarios, particularly during festive periods [16] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Wuliangye faces price pressure due to its own release strategy and dealer control over sales volume. The market is currently experiencing low transaction prices due to various promotional activities [11] - Moutai's recent price drop is attributed to several factors, including management changes, accelerated payment processes, and ongoing declines in non-standard product prices [12][17] - In the Chengdu market, Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye are priced similarly, with slight shifts in sales proportions, indicating competitive dynamics [18] Market Outlook - Current baijiu demand has shown some recovery, but the extent is limited. Future price trends suggest that prices have likely bottomed out, with a higher probability of increases leading up to the Spring Festival [22]

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of certain liquor products in the southwestern region of China have rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival, with notable increases in products like Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Lang [1][2] - The price increase is attributed to the reduction of inventory levels and the implementation of quantity control measures by liquor companies [1][3] - Specific data shows that the average market price of Feitian Moutai rose to 2606.8 yuan per bottle as of May 31, up from 2586.8 yuan on April 30, marking a 0.77% increase [2] Group 2 - The inventory situation for major liquor brands has improved, with Wuliangye reporting "zero inventory" at some terminals and Luzhou Laojiao indicating that their inventory management is currently safe and controllable [1][3] - The sales performance of Wuliangye's products has been stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, while sales on platforms like JD and Tmall grew by 21% [2][3] - Despite the overall price recovery, some products like Mengzhilun M6+ experienced a price decline, with its average market price dropping to 705.7 yuan per bottle from 714.25 yuan [4][5] Group 3 - The overall demand for liquor is under pressure, leading to a slowdown in sales, particularly in the business and corporate group purchase segments [7] - Companies are adjusting their revenue growth targets in response to market conditions, with Moutai aiming for a 9% revenue growth by 2025, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are aligning their targets with macroeconomic indicators [7][8] - Many liquor companies are focusing on the wedding market, with initiatives like "Red Flower Lang's Romantic Wedding Tour" and promotional events to attract potential customers [8]