【环球网消费报道 记者 刘晓旭】春节假期结束后，高端白酒的终端价格往往会迎来一波回调。然而，2026年的市场却走出了"独立行情"。"原本春节后飞 天茅台的价格一般会降下来，但今年目前是不降反升。"一位深耕行业多年的酒商如此表示。 随着春节假期画上句号，白酒市场的余温尚存，且分化趋势愈发明显。在行业整体动销承压的背景下，以茅台、五粮液为代表的头部品牌展现出了强大的 抗跌性与增长韧性，而次高端赛道则面临严峻考验。 价格坚挺的背后，是动销数据的显著分化。多家机构调研数据显示，白酒春节动销呈现出典型的"K型"走势：头部名酒高歌猛进，行业整体却面临双位数 下滑。 动销分化：头部名酒与区域龙头共振 华创证券研报指出，春节期间行业整体动销下滑双位数，回款节奏慢于去年。在这一背景下，"茅五"表现亮眼。茅台动销呈双位数增长，多地渠道反馈几 无库存；五粮液在价格调整后刺激了需求释放，出货量同比增长超20%，表现大超预期。 酒业分析师蔡学飞表示，进入春节，整个酒类市场整体呈现"K型分化"。其中受益于节庆礼品刚需，高端酒类的礼赠市场依然稳健，品牌是硬通货。与此 同时，古井贡酒、 舍得等区域强势酒企在根据地市场依然强势，特别是中端宴席 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The high-end baijiu consumption during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 8%, with Moutai and Wuliangye outperforming the industry average [1][2] - The overall baijiu consumption environment in Chengdu, Sichuan, showed positive trends leading up to the Spring Festival, with high-end, mid-high-end, and mid-low-end products expected to decline by about 8% [2] Key Insights and Arguments - Moutai benefited from the "i Moutai" platform and price reductions, while Wuliangye's eighth generation gained market share due to its cost-effectiveness [1] - The gifting scenario saw slight growth driven by mass high-end consumption, while government consumption significantly declined, with about 90% already digested [1][5] - Business banquets decreased by over 10%, with an expected reduction of about 20% [3] - Moutai's wholesale price stability at around 1,550 RMB depends on supply conditions, particularly for Feitian Moutai and non-standard products [1][8] - As of now, Moutai's overall shipment progress for Feitian and non-standard products has decreased by over 30% year-on-year, primarily to digest 2025 inventory [10] Performance of Key Brands - Wuliangye's eighth generation saw a year-on-year sales increase of over 30% during the Spring Festival, recovering to 2024 levels, although the 1,618 series declined by 10% due to price reductions [12][13] - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 experienced a 25% decline in sales, with shipment volume down over 30% [14] - Other mid-high-end brands like Honghualang and Jian'nanchun showed mixed results, with Honghualang up by 9 percentage points and Jian'nanchun stable year-on-year [15] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Moutai's market divergence points include the stability of post-holiday wholesale prices and whether demand can maintain double-digit growth [4][20] - The correlation between Moutai prices and urban residents' disposable income shows an annual growth rate of about 8% for income and 12% for Moutai prices, indicating potential for stronger growth as demand recovers [23] - The overall expectation for high-end baijiu consumption during the Spring Festival has improved, with a revised decline estimate of around 8% [17] - Future performance of Wuliangye remains uncertain due to varying regional feedback and concerns over sales transparency [25] Additional Considerations - The impact of the Japanese market on local high-end consumption growth is acknowledged, but the primary drivers are attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market and gradual consumption recovery [19] - The historical performance of Moutai during past adjustment cycles indicates its resilience and potential for significant growth when mass high-end demand recovers [24] - Recommendations suggest selectively increasing positions in the baijiu sector while monitoring performance in the second and third quarters [26]

Group 1 - The traditional promotional season for liquor, particularly for Moutai, is approaching as spring nears, with high demand and tight supply reported at retail outlets [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen significant fluctuations, with reports of price increases occurring multiple times in a single day, drawing comparisons to the volatility of gold and stocks [1] - The market price for Feitian Moutai has recently stabilized around 1,764 yuan after reaching a peak of 1,813 yuan on January 31 [3] Group 2 - The market price for the Year of the Horse Moutai has increased by 57% recently, surpassing the price increase of Feitian Moutai, with a current price of 2,998 yuan [3] - Retail promotions for Moutai have been launched by major supermarkets, with prices as low as 1,616.5 yuan per bottle during promotional events [10] - Other high-end liquors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 have maintained stable prices after adjustments in 2025, while promotional strategies have shifted towards increasing bottle opening rates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].

Summary of the Sichuan Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The baijiu consumption peak season is approaching, with demand recovering to normal levels. Daily drinking demand accounts for 66%, while business consumption remains low and government consumption has virtually stagnated [1][3] - Major baijiu brands are experiencing a general price decline, with Moutai at approximately 1,680 RMB, Wuliangye at about 800 RMB, Guojiao 1573 at around 834 RMB, and Qinghualang at about 600 RMB. The rapid downward trend observed earlier in the year has slowed, and prices are stabilizing [1][4] Key Insights - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 have reached a phase of low wholesale prices, with limited room for further decline. Manufacturers are preparing for the year-end sales push, which may provide some upward price potential as they gear up for the 2026 Spring Festival sales [1][5] - Wuliangye's Q3 performance saw a decline of over 50%, primarily due to excessive dealer repayments in the first half of the year and rapid price declines, leading to reduced dealer enthusiasm and low inventory levels across brands [1][6] - Inventory levels for major brands are as follows: Moutai's non-standard products have about 1.5 months of inventory, Wuliangye's eighth generation has less than one month, and Guojiao 1573 has around two months of inventory, reflecting the actual market operations [1][7] Future Planning and Market Dynamics - Dealers have begun discussions with manufacturers regarding the 2026 sales plan, awaiting product planning and the results of the 1,218 awards. Stability in demand is a key consideration for planning, making the process cautious [1][8] - The demand structure in the Sichuan baijiu market is categorized into three types: banquet wine, self-drinking, and business wine. The price range for banquet wine has decreased from around 1,000 RMB to about 800 RMB, while self-drinking wine is primarily below 300 RMB [1][9] Consumer Behavior and Price Impact - Following Moutai's price drop to 1,640 RMB, consumer response has been positive, indicating an increase in consumption willingness. However, there has been no new trend of stockpiling [2][14] - The overall decline in baijiu prices has influenced consumer purchasing behavior, with consumers now buying more bottles at lower prices, although total spending has not significantly increased [15] - Non-standard Moutai, previously used for investment and collection, has seen increased demand in gifting scenarios, particularly during festive periods [16] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Wuliangye faces price pressure due to its own release strategy and dealer control over sales volume. The market is currently experiencing low transaction prices due to various promotional activities [11] - Moutai's recent price drop is attributed to several factors, including management changes, accelerated payment processes, and ongoing declines in non-standard product prices [12][17] - In the Chengdu market, Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye are priced similarly, with slight shifts in sales proportions, indicating competitive dynamics [18] Market Outlook - Current baijiu demand has shown some recovery, but the extent is limited. Future price trends suggest that prices have likely bottomed out, with a higher probability of increases leading up to the Spring Festival [22]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's autumn market research indicates a positive trend in the overall market, showing stability and growth despite industry pressures [1][5] - Moutai's sales performance has significantly improved, with terminal sales increasing approximately 100% month-on-month and over 20% year-on-year since September [1][5] - The recent rise in wholesale prices for Moutai products suggests a recovery in market confidence, driven by seasonal demand and effective market strategies [2][4] Company Performance - Moutai's sales strategies, including precise market deployment, have stabilized sales during challenging months [1] - The company reported a notable increase in sales volume across various regions, with some areas experiencing a 15%-35% increase compared to the previous month [1][3] - The company's channel system has shown resilience, with a significant decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating improved market vitality [6] Market Trends - The overall white liquor market remains under pressure, with year-on-year sales still declining despite recent improvements in month-on-month performance [5][7] - Analysts suggest that while Moutai's performance is strong, the broader industry is still facing challenges, including high inventory levels and the impact of consumption restrictions [7] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive demand, but the market sentiment remains cautious due to previous trends of "旺季不旺" (busy season not busy) [6][7] Price Movements - Recent data shows a rebound in the wholesale prices of Moutai, with the price of the 25-year flying Moutai returning above 1800 yuan per bottle [2] - Terminal prices for Moutai have also increased, with reported price hikes of 20-50 yuan for different bottle types [2][3] - The price fluctuations are attributed to seasonal demand and the overall market recovery efforts by leading liquor companies [4] Stock Performance - As of September 26, Guizhou Moutai's stock closed at 1435 yuan per share, reflecting a slight decline of 0.28% with a total market capitalization of 1.8 trillion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Shu Li An Yi" consumption voucher program aims to promote Sichuan's local products, specifically Sichuan liquor and tea, through a collaboration between Yunshanfu APP and Vipshop, enhancing consumer access to these products while providing significant discounts [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Voucher Details - The consumption vouchers will be available for online registration starting September 25, with a lottery system for selection [3][5]. - The vouchers offer discounts based on purchase amounts: 30 yuan off for purchases over 300 yuan, 100 yuan off for over 800 yuan, and 180 yuan off for over 1200 yuan [6][7]. - The vouchers can be used on various Sichuan liquor and tea brands available on Vipshop, including well-known names like Wuliangye and Langjiu [3][4]. Group 2: Collaboration and Sales Performance - Vipshop collaborates closely with major Sichuan brands to enhance product visibility and streamline supply chains, contributing to the "Sichuan goods going out" initiative [3][4]. - Since its partnership with Vipshop began in 2017, Wuliangye has seen significant sales growth, with sales figures reaching new highs this year [3]. - Langjiu has also benefited from the partnership, with over 70% of its purchasing users on Vipshop being super VIP members, indicating strong customer loyalty [4]. Group 3: Event Timeline and Participation - The event will run from September 25 to October 3, with specific timelines for registration, lottery results, and voucher usage [5][10]. - Participants must authorize their personal information for verification during the registration process [7][10]. - The vouchers will be credited to users' accounts by September 29 and will be valid for five days [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth of Laobai Gan liquor has significantly declined, with a 2024 revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a mere 1.91% increase year-on-year, raising concerns about the sustainability of profit growth despite a net profit increase of 18.19% [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Laobai Gan achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, up 1.91% from 2023's 5.26 billion yuan, which had a 12.98% growth [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 787 million yuan, reflecting an 18.19% increase compared to 666 million yuan in 2023 [3][4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 738 million yuan, a 20.12% increase from 614 million yuan in 2023 [3] Revenue Breakdown - The primary sales region for Laobai Gan remains Hebei, generating 3.12 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.61% increase [5] - Other notable revenue contributions include Hunan at 1.10 billion yuan (12.30% growth), Anhui at 550 million yuan (0.53% growth), and Shandong at 210 million yuan (31.39% growth) [5] Product Performance - The core product line, Laobai Gan series, generated 2.59 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with a growth of 9.96% [8] - The Wuling series saw a revenue of 1.10 billion yuan, up 13.30%, while the Kongfu family series grew by 28.12% to 230 million yuan [8] - High-end products priced above 100 yuan generated 2.70 billion yuan, a 5.29% increase, while products priced at or below 100 yuan generated 2.62 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase [8][9] Strategic Challenges - Laobai Gan's struggle to expand its market presence and high-end product sales is attributed to limited geographical reach and insufficient brand recognition [5][7] - The company faces intense competition not only from leading domestic brands but also from local competitors in Hebei [7] - The high pricing strategy for the 1915 series has not translated into significant market traction, highlighting the challenges of positioning as a premium brand [10] Future Outlook - The company's ability to penetrate the high-end market through targeted marketing and the success of its regional strategies will be critical for future growth [12] - Without achieving a revenue scale of 10 billion yuan within the next 3-5 years, Laobai Gan risks falling out of the second-tier market [12]