Summary of the Sichuan Baijiu Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The baijiu consumption peak season is approaching, with demand recovering to normal levels. Daily drinking demand accounts for 66%, while business consumption remains low and government consumption has virtually stagnated [1][3] - Major baijiu brands are experiencing a general price decline, with Moutai at approximately 1,680 RMB, Wuliangye at about 800 RMB, Guojiao 1573 at around 834 RMB, and Qinghualang at about 600 RMB. The rapid downward trend observed earlier in the year has slowed, and prices are stabilizing [1][4] Key Insights - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 have reached a phase of low wholesale prices, with limited room for further decline. Manufacturers are preparing for the year-end sales push, which may provide some upward price potential as they gear up for the 2026 Spring Festival sales [1][5] - Wuliangye's Q3 performance saw a decline of over 50%, primarily due to excessive dealer repayments in the first half of the year and rapid price declines, leading to reduced dealer enthusiasm and low inventory levels across brands [1][6] - Inventory levels for major brands are as follows: Moutai's non-standard products have about 1.5 months of inventory, Wuliangye's eighth generation has less than one month, and Guojiao 1573 has around two months of inventory, reflecting the actual market operations [1][7] Future Planning and Market Dynamics - Dealers have begun discussions with manufacturers regarding the 2026 sales plan, awaiting product planning and the results of the 1,218 awards. Stability in demand is a key consideration for planning, making the process cautious [1][8] - The demand structure in the Sichuan baijiu market is categorized into three types: banquet wine, self-drinking, and business wine. The price range for banquet wine has decreased from around 1,000 RMB to about 800 RMB, while self-drinking wine is primarily below 300 RMB [1][9] Consumer Behavior and Price Impact - Following Moutai's price drop to 1,640 RMB, consumer response has been positive, indicating an increase in consumption willingness. However, there has been no new trend of stockpiling [2][14] - The overall decline in baijiu prices has influenced consumer purchasing behavior, with consumers now buying more bottles at lower prices, although total spending has not significantly increased [15] - Non-standard Moutai, previously used for investment and collection, has seen increased demand in gifting scenarios, particularly during festive periods [16] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Wuliangye faces price pressure due to its own release strategy and dealer control over sales volume. The market is currently experiencing low transaction prices due to various promotional activities [11] - Moutai's recent price drop is attributed to several factors, including management changes, accelerated payment processes, and ongoing declines in non-standard product prices [12][17] - In the Chengdu market, Guojiao 1573 and Wuliangye are priced similarly, with slight shifts in sales proportions, indicating competitive dynamics [18] Market Outlook - Current baijiu demand has shown some recovery, but the extent is limited. Future price trends suggest that prices have likely bottomed out, with a higher probability of increases leading up to the Spring Festival [22]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's autumn market research indicates a positive trend in the overall market, showing stability and growth despite industry pressures [1][5] - Moutai's sales performance has significantly improved, with terminal sales increasing approximately 100% month-on-month and over 20% year-on-year since September [1][5] - The recent rise in wholesale prices for Moutai products suggests a recovery in market confidence, driven by seasonal demand and effective market strategies [2][4] Company Performance - Moutai's sales strategies, including precise market deployment, have stabilized sales during challenging months [1] - The company reported a notable increase in sales volume across various regions, with some areas experiencing a 15%-35% increase compared to the previous month [1][3] - The company's channel system has shown resilience, with a significant decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating improved market vitality [6] Market Trends - The overall white liquor market remains under pressure, with year-on-year sales still declining despite recent improvements in month-on-month performance [5][7] - Analysts suggest that while Moutai's performance is strong, the broader industry is still facing challenges, including high inventory levels and the impact of consumption restrictions [7] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to drive demand, but the market sentiment remains cautious due to previous trends of "旺季不旺" (busy season not busy) [6][7] Price Movements - Recent data shows a rebound in the wholesale prices of Moutai, with the price of the 25-year flying Moutai returning above 1800 yuan per bottle [2] - Terminal prices for Moutai have also increased, with reported price hikes of 20-50 yuan for different bottle types [2][3] - The price fluctuations are attributed to seasonal demand and the overall market recovery efforts by leading liquor companies [4] Stock Performance - As of September 26, Guizhou Moutai's stock closed at 1435 yuan per share, reflecting a slight decline of 0.28% with a total market capitalization of 1.8 trillion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Shu Li An Yi" consumption voucher program aims to promote Sichuan's local products, specifically Sichuan liquor and tea, through a collaboration between Yunshanfu APP and Vipshop, enhancing consumer access to these products while providing significant discounts [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Voucher Details - The consumption vouchers will be available for online registration starting September 25, with a lottery system for selection [3][5]. - The vouchers offer discounts based on purchase amounts: 30 yuan off for purchases over 300 yuan, 100 yuan off for over 800 yuan, and 180 yuan off for over 1200 yuan [6][7]. - The vouchers can be used on various Sichuan liquor and tea brands available on Vipshop, including well-known names like Wuliangye and Langjiu [3][4]. Group 2: Collaboration and Sales Performance - Vipshop collaborates closely with major Sichuan brands to enhance product visibility and streamline supply chains, contributing to the "Sichuan goods going out" initiative [3][4]. - Since its partnership with Vipshop began in 2017, Wuliangye has seen significant sales growth, with sales figures reaching new highs this year [3]. - Langjiu has also benefited from the partnership, with over 70% of its purchasing users on Vipshop being super VIP members, indicating strong customer loyalty [4]. Group 3: Event Timeline and Participation - The event will run from September 25 to October 3, with specific timelines for registration, lottery results, and voucher usage [5][10]. - Participants must authorize their personal information for verification during the registration process [7][10]. - The vouchers will be credited to users' accounts by September 29 and will be valid for five days [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth of Laobai Gan liquor has significantly declined, with a 2024 revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a mere 1.91% increase year-on-year, raising concerns about the sustainability of profit growth despite a net profit increase of 18.19% [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Laobai Gan achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, up 1.91% from 2023's 5.26 billion yuan, which had a 12.98% growth [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 787 million yuan, reflecting an 18.19% increase compared to 666 million yuan in 2023 [3][4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 738 million yuan, a 20.12% increase from 614 million yuan in 2023 [3] Revenue Breakdown - The primary sales region for Laobai Gan remains Hebei, generating 3.12 billion yuan in revenue, a 2.61% increase [5] - Other notable revenue contributions include Hunan at 1.10 billion yuan (12.30% growth), Anhui at 550 million yuan (0.53% growth), and Shandong at 210 million yuan (31.39% growth) [5] Product Performance - The core product line, Laobai Gan series, generated 2.59 billion yuan, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with a growth of 9.96% [8] - The Wuling series saw a revenue of 1.10 billion yuan, up 13.30%, while the Kongfu family series grew by 28.12% to 230 million yuan [8] - High-end products priced above 100 yuan generated 2.70 billion yuan, a 5.29% increase, while products priced at or below 100 yuan generated 2.62 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase [8][9] Strategic Challenges - Laobai Gan's struggle to expand its market presence and high-end product sales is attributed to limited geographical reach and insufficient brand recognition [5][7] - The company faces intense competition not only from leading domestic brands but also from local competitors in Hebei [7] - The high pricing strategy for the 1915 series has not translated into significant market traction, highlighting the challenges of positioning as a premium brand [10] Future Outlook - The company's ability to penetrate the high-end market through targeted marketing and the success of its regional strategies will be critical for future growth [12] - Without achieving a revenue scale of 10 billion yuan within the next 3-5 years, Laobai Gan risks falling out of the second-tier market [12]