Core Insights - The article focuses on the price dynamics of popular liquor, particularly in Guangdong, during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, highlighting the importance of this consumer event for the liquor market [1] Price Trends - The overall price trend for liquor remains stable, with only high-end liquor experiencing some fluctuations. For instance, the average selling price of Feitian Moutai is reported at 1957.6 yuan per bottle, showing a decline from previous peaks [3][4] - The price of Feitian Moutai dropped from 2043 yuan to 1940 yuan on JD's official self-operated store, indicating a decrease of nearly 100 yuan [3] - Other high-end liquor, such as Guojiao 1573, has an average selling price of 931 yuan per bottle, with some channels showing minor price fluctuations [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are advised to be cautious about purchasing channels, as many liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have issued warnings about counterfeit products and unauthorized sellers, particularly during major shopping events [5][6] - Retailers are adopting cautious strategies in response to price declines, with some reducing stock levels to mitigate potential losses [4] E-commerce Impact - E-commerce platforms have become significant sales channels for liquor, but they also pose challenges such as the prevalence of counterfeit products, which companies must address [6] - The article notes that liquor companies are increasingly emphasizing the importance of purchasing through official and authorized channels to protect consumers [5]

Core Insights - The liquor market in the Greater Bay Area is experiencing price fluctuations, particularly in high-end products, as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, leading to increased promotional activities by distributors [3][4][12] - High-end liquor prices have generally decreased, while low-end products remain stable, indicating a shift in consumer demand and pricing strategies [4][10][12] Price Trends - In Guangzhou, 15 high-end liquor products saw price declines, including notable brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, with Moutai's average price dropping to approximately 2065 yuan, a decrease of about 40 yuan [4][5] - Shenzhen's liquor prices have stabilized, with Moutai averaging 2102.91 yuan, reflecting a recovery in sales as the festive season approaches [6][8] - In Foshan, Moutai's average price is around 2131 yuan, with other products like Wuliangye and Qinghualang also experiencing slight declines [9][10] Market Dynamics - Distributors are implementing various promotional strategies, such as discounts and bundled offers, to boost sales and reduce inventory ahead of the festive season [5][12] - There is a noticeable increase in sales of high-end products, while low-alcohol beverages are gaining popularity, suggesting a diversification in consumer preferences [3][12] Regional Variations - In Dongguan, the market shows a downward trend in mid-to-high-end liquor prices, with significant drops in products like the金沙摘要, which fell by 8.81% [11][12] - The overall performance of the liquor market in the Greater Bay Area indicates a growing demand for high-end products, despite the general price decline, as distributors adapt to changing consumer behaviors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai in Shenzhen has significantly decreased, contrary to the usual trend of price increases during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, leading to confusion among consumers and merchants [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The retail price of 2025 Moutai has dropped below 1900, with wholesale prices hitting 1790 and original box prices down to 1815, marking a substantial decline from earlier this year when retail prices were around 2200 and box prices reached 2300 [3] - The decline in prices is attributed to various factors, including reduced government and business demand due to stricter regulations on alcohol consumption during official events [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The speculative nature of Moutai as a financial asset has diminished, leading to losses for those who hoarded stock, with some individuals reportedly losing over 200 million [3][4] - E-commerce platforms like Pinduoduo and Meituan have introduced significant discounts, with Moutai being sold for as low as 1499, creating competitive pressure on traditional sales channels [3] Group 3: Impact on Stakeholders - Distributors and scalpers are facing the most significant impact, with many forced to sell at a loss, leading to a broader price decline affecting other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 [4] - While lower prices may benefit consumers, the actual price reduction felt at retail may not be as significant due to the gap between wholesale and retail prices, with scalpers reluctant to sell [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - As the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays approach, manufacturers are likely to implement measures to stabilize prices, but overall demand remains low, indicating continued price pressure in the short term [4] - Moutai aims to refocus on its core product rather than its financial investment appeal, with plans to enhance direct sales channels and explore international markets [5]

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of Moutai have significantly declined, with various products experiencing substantial drops, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and consumer demand [1][2][4]. Price Decline of Moutai - As of June 22, the wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai dropped to 1935 yuan per bottle, down 10 yuan from the previous day, while the retail price for scattered bottles fell to 1870 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan [1]. - The 24-year Moutai's wholesale price fell by 510 yuan to 1450 yuan per bottle, and the scattered bottle price decreased by 30 yuan to 1900 yuan [1]. - The 23-year Moutai also saw a decline, with the wholesale price dropping to 2100 yuan per bottle, down 50 yuan, and the scattered bottle price fell to 2030 yuan, also down 50 yuan [1]. Broader Market Impact - Other Moutai products, such as the Zodiac Snake edition, saw a price drop to 2230 yuan per bottle, marking a decline of over 41% from its peak [2]. - The newly released Shengle Feitian Moutai is now priced at 2300 yuan per bottle, down 50 yuan from the previous day, representing a drop of over 32% from its high of 3400 yuan [2]. - The 15-year Moutai's price decreased by more than 12%, falling from 5030 yuan to 4400 yuan [2]. E-commerce Price Trends - On e-commerce platforms, the price of Moutai has also dropped significantly, with some stores listing it at 1820 yuan per bottle and double bottle packs at 3600 yuan, equating to 1800 yuan per bottle [2]. - The 43-degree Moutai was reported at 1580 yuan for a double bottle pack, translating to less than 800 yuan per bottle [2]. Impact on Other High-end Liquor Brands - The price decline of Moutai is expected to exert pressure on other premium liquor brands like Wuliangye, with a noted drop in its wholesale price to 905 yuan per bottle, down 4.74% from the beginning of the year [3]. - The price of Wuliangye's 5L variant also fell by 18.18%, indicating a broader trend of price reductions across high-end liquor brands [3]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing price drop of Moutai could lead to panic selling in distribution channels, further impacting the sales expectations for Wuliangye and other premium brands [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of certain liquor products in the southwestern region of China have rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival, with notable increases in products like Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Lang [1][2] - The price increase is attributed to the reduction of inventory levels and the implementation of quantity control measures by liquor companies [1][3] - Specific data shows that the average market price of Feitian Moutai rose to 2606.8 yuan per bottle as of May 31, up from 2586.8 yuan on April 30, marking a 0.77% increase [2] Group 2 - The inventory situation for major liquor brands has improved, with Wuliangye reporting "zero inventory" at some terminals and Luzhou Laojiao indicating that their inventory management is currently safe and controllable [1][3] - The sales performance of Wuliangye's products has been stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, while sales on platforms like JD and Tmall grew by 21% [2][3] - Despite the overall price recovery, some products like Mengzhilun M6+ experienced a price decline, with its average market price dropping to 705.7 yuan per bottle from 714.25 yuan [4][5] Group 3 - The overall demand for liquor is under pressure, leading to a slowdown in sales, particularly in the business and corporate group purchase segments [7] - Companies are adjusting their revenue growth targets in response to market conditions, with Moutai aiming for a 9% revenue growth by 2025, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are aligning their targets with macroeconomic indicators [7][8] - Many liquor companies are focusing on the wedding market, with initiatives like "Red Flower Lang's Romantic Wedding Tour" and promotional events to attract potential customers [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a downward trend in liquor prices in major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with over two-thirds of products experiencing price declines [1][2][4] - In Guangzhou, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to an average of 2579.73 yuan per bottle, with some retailers offering it at around 2300 yuan, while other premium products like Wuliangye have seen a slight decrease of 18 yuan per bottle [2][3] - Shenzhen's market shows a similar trend, with over two-thirds of sampled products experiencing price drops, although some prices may be artificially inflated due to limited availability in certain channels [4][5] Group 2 - In Dongguan, nearly half of the sampled products maintained stable prices, with only 8 out of 21 products showing a decline, while the price of Luzhou Laojiao increased by 61.1 yuan to 1075.6 yuan per bottle due to replenished stock in certain channels [7][8] - The article notes that the upcoming 618 shopping festival has led to price adjustments on e-commerce platforms, with 15 out of 21 sampled premium liquors experiencing price reductions, while only one liquor saw an increase [9][10] - A comparison between the Bay Area and Southwest liquor prices reveals that the Bay Area's retail prices are significantly higher, with differences ranging from 15 to 82 yuan, attributed to higher demand for premium products in the region [11][12]