Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival has concluded, leading to varied price movements in the white liquor market, with some products experiencing price increases while others continue to decline [1][2][3] Price Trends in Major Cities - In Guangzhou, among 21 sampled white liquor products, 9 saw a decrease in average retail price, while 8 experienced an increase, and 4 remained unchanged [2] - Notably, high-end products like Moutai and Guojiao 1573 have seen price drops, with Moutai's average retail price falling to approximately 2304 RMB, a decrease of about 100 RMB from the previous period [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is reported at 2298.5 RMB, with a notable decline in several high-end products due to ongoing market pressures [7][10] - East Dongguan's market shows a mixed trend, with 9 products increasing in price and 5 decreasing, highlighting the volatility in high-end liquor pricing [12][13] Online vs. Offline Pricing - Online platforms, particularly instant retail channels, are showing lower prices compared to offline supermarkets, with Moutai priced at 2229 RMB online, which is about 75 RMB lower than the overall average [3][8] - The price discrepancies between online and offline channels are significant, with products like Junpin Xijiu and Qinghua Lang being sold for much lower prices online compared to their offline counterparts [3][8] Impact of Regulatory Changes - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" has significantly impacted sales, particularly in high-end segments, leading to price reductions as businesses attempt to stimulate demand [9][10] - The combination of the 618 festival and regulatory changes has created a challenging environment for liquor companies, as they navigate maintaining sales volume and pricing stability [1][17] Summary of Average Prices - The average prices for key products as of July 4th are as follows: - Moutai: 2367.62 RMB [19] - Wuliangye: 1010.27 RMB [19] - Junpin Xijiu: 833.17 RMB [20] - Qinghua Lang: 943.11 RMB [20] - Guojiao 1573: 993.42 RMB [20]

作 者丨茅宁 业内人士对投资快报记者表示，去金融属性，供应未减少，叠加需求下滑，茅台的价格预计 还将持续回落，甚至不排除会跌破1499元；而茅台降价对其他高端白酒品牌尤其是最接近茅 台的五粮液构成价格挤压和需求分流压力。广州的一位投资者认为， 飞天茅台价格跳水将削 弱包括五粮液等在内其他高端白酒性价比优势。 "茅台持续降价还可能引发渠道恐慌性抛售， 进一步恶化五粮液等高端白酒的终端动销预期。" 本期编辑 刘雪莹 茅台股价跌至1400元关口！1个月市值蒸发2500亿元 泡泡玛特一新店，开业2小时卖光闭店！黄牛不炒茅台炒Labubu，月入数万元 成本几十，竟卖899元！直播间 "陈年酱香" 猫腻曝光：酒精勾兑、年份造假 SFC 21君荐读 投资快报记者关注到，在6月11日25年飞天茅台散瓶价"历史性"地跌破2000元/瓶的"心理防 线"后，飞天茅台似乎陷入下滑通道。6月15日，25年原箱和24年散瓶也宣告 "破防"，当日两 者批发参考价均为1990元，分别较上一日下跌了10元和20元。6月20日，24年原箱也加入 到"破防"的队伍中去，当日率先"破防"的25年散瓶价退守至1900元/瓶。 此外，6月22日，还有多 ...

6月，飞天茅台市场流通价跌破2000元/瓶大关，引发行业震动。这一价格节点不仅标志着茅台价格体系的重大调整，更折射出高端白酒市场在宏观经济、 消费场景、渠道变革等多重因素交织下的深刻变化。 价格波动轨迹：从"硬通货"到"价格筑底" 从需求端看，消费场景的收缩与消费者理性回归是关键。2025年5月，新修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》明确规定，工作餐不得提供高档菜肴 和酒水，直接压缩了高端白酒的公务消费场景。与此同时，年轻消费者对白酒的兴趣下降，聚会中更倾向于选择啤酒、鸡尾酒等低度酒饮。此外，宏观经 济环境的变化也影响了高端消费品的购买力。 渠道端的博弈加剧了价格波动。电商平台通过补贴低价引流，进一步拉低了市场价格。而经销商则面临库存压力与利润压缩的双重困境。一位白酒经销商 表示："现在卖一箱飞天茅台利润也就100元左右，酒价稍微一跌就会亏钱。"部分经销商选择抛售库存，导致价格踩踏。 飞天茅台价格长期呈现"双轨制"特征：官方指导价1499元/瓶，但市场流通价长期高于指导价。2024年，飞天茅台散瓶市场价一度达2850元/瓶，原箱价 2900-2950元/瓶；而2025年6月，散瓶批发价跌至1980元/瓶，原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

"三是社会库存处于低位。春节后经销商库存、终端商库存等流通环节库存基本消化，部分社会终端'零 库存'运行。四是品牌地位持续巩固。从千元价位段品牌表现来看，基本拉开与竞品在千元价位段的价 差距离。"五粮液在业绩说明会中进一步指出。 今年端午节，西南地区的部分白酒产品价格有所回升。 具体到产品来看，《西南酒价》第十三期数据显示，飞天茅台、青花郎等白酒产品的回升幅度较大；此 外，第八代五粮液、国台国标等产品的价格也有所回升。白酒价格的波动与库存紧密相关，此次价格的 回升，业内人士分析认为，与此前酒企频频控量挺价、持续去库存等有关 。 从五粮液等近期召开的会议内容来看，不少白酒产品的库存高企情况有所缓解，五粮液就强调"部分终 端零库存运行"，泸州老窖也表示在"终端配额制"基础上，现阶段的库存情况安全可控。 第八代五粮液等价格回升，白酒库存水平有所好转 《西南酒价》第十三期数据显示，飞天茅台（53度/500ml）5月31日在西南市场均价为2606.8元/瓶，相 较于4月31日的市场均价2586.8元/瓶上涨了20元/瓶；五粮液第八代普五（52度/500ml）5月31日在西南 市场均价为997.69元/瓶，相较于4月31 ...

随着端午假期临近，部分白酒价格却持续走低。 近日，南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者进行了第四十六期《湾区酒价》数据统计，从统计结果 来看，广州、深圳和东莞三地，大部分产品价格相比上一期持续走低，具体原因来看，其一是部分产品 渠道出现产品打折出售，其二是有的产品因本身销售渠道少，出现打折之后导致了零售均价有较大波 动。 另外，上期课题组推出的《西南酒价》，所报出的零售均价获得了较大关注。其中四川作为白酒产地， 大湾区作为酒水消费高地，这两个地区的酒水价格具有哪些方面的差异？根据统计对比后，课题组发 现，湾区的零售均价显著高于四川。 广州：端午临近，超三分之二产品价格持续下跌 虽然时间临近端午假期，但是在本期酒价统计中，广州有超过三分之二的产品价格对比上期出现下跌， 跌价幅度从数元到几十元不等。 其中，飞天茅台酒零售均价进一步下探，本期录得价格为2579.73元/瓶，受调研的部分终端该产品零售 价报出了2300元/瓶左右的价格，不过诸如永旺与华润ole，产品摆柜价依然高企，分别为2799元/瓶和 2999元/瓶，这一定程度拉高了飞天茅台的均价表现。 而在高端、次高端产品方面，古井贡酒的古20零售均价持续出现下 ...