珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌近5%，截至发稿，跌4.65%，报8.62港元，成交额9305.47万港元。 值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"此前正式上市，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 华创证券指出，白酒动销在假期前一周左右出现边际加速，后逐步趋缓，整体预计下滑20%左右，符合 节前预期；考虑后续任务量、年末淡季资金压力及双十一电商补贴等因素，预计10-11月价盘仍有一定 下探压力。国泰海通则表示，预计2025年第三季度板块报表或将进一步调整。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

值得注意的是，珍酒李渡旗下最新超级单品"大珍"正式上市发布，在发布会上，珍酒李渡集团董事长吴 向东透露，大珍回款已经达到了3.7亿元，全国签约联盟商数量达2800多家。华鑫证券此前指出，上半 年公司推出全新旗舰产品"大珍"，定位协同珍15、珍30系列，高质价比有望构筑珍酒第三增长曲线。 消息面上，白酒行业深度调整下，近日市场有传闻称，贵州茅台（600519）或下调今年业绩目标。智通 财经记者以投资者身份致电贵州茅台，公司证券部人士表示，目前公司未下调年度业绩目标，上半年公 司已按计划完成目标进度。太平洋证券发布研报称，根据渠道调研，8月以来行业整体终端动销有所恢 复，但预计中秋国庆动销同比仍将承压。 珍酒李渡(06979)午后跌超4%，截至发稿，跌3.92%，报8.83港元，成交额1.2亿港元。 ...

Group 1 - The white liquor industry is entering a peak sales season during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with sales typically accounting for 20% to 30% of annual volume [1] - Major liquor brands, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are launching promotional activities to boost sales during this period, with strategies such as creating a "Double Festival" brand image and enhancing consumer experiences [2] - The overall sentiment among distributors is cautious, with many focusing on inventory reduction rather than increasing stock levels, reflecting a more conservative approach to purchasing [3] Group 2 - Despite the enthusiasm from manufacturers, the price of white liquor is generally declining, with a reported decrease of 0.09% in the national white liquor price index as of early September 2023 [3] - The performance of listed liquor companies in the first half of the year shows a divergence, suggesting that the upcoming holiday sales will be a critical test for companies with strong brand power and effective management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, Liu Ansheng, plans to reduce his stake in the company due to personal financial needs, which may not significantly impact the secondary market due to the nature of the transaction [1][4]. Shareholder Reduction - Liu Ansheng intends to sell up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total share capital, through block trading within three months after the announcement [1]. - As of the announcement date, Liu Ansheng holds approximately 63.47 million shares, accounting for 10.58% of the company, and is part of a group of shareholders that collectively owns 42.01% of Kuozi Jiao [4]. Market Impact - The block trading method used for the reduction is expected to minimize market impact, as such transactions are conducted outside the regular trading system [4]. - The potential buyer is likely to be an institutional investor, which further reduces the likelihood of significant price fluctuations in the secondary market [4]. Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao's stock price has decreased by 14.48% year-to-date as of July 21, with an average price of 35.9 yuan per share [1]. - In Q1, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 3.6% from the previous year [10]. - The company has faced challenges in sales, particularly in the mid to low-end product segments, which saw declines of 12.5% and 9% respectively [11]. Sales Dynamics - The company has experienced a slowdown in sales due to recent regulations affecting alcohol consumption, particularly impacting mid to high-end products [9]. - As of March, Kuozi Jiao had 1,032 distributors, with sales revenue from the Anhui province reaching 1.586 billion yuan, while sales from outside the province dropped by 19.84% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall sales performance during the Dragon Boat Festival aligns with previous expectations, continuing a slight downward trend typical of the off-season. Sales of liquor are expected to decline by nearly 10% from May to date, with the decline not expanding significantly. This is primarily due to a low base, stable demand from regular gatherings, and a recovery in banquet events in many regions. However, demand for business entertainment and gift-giving remains under pressure [1][1][1]. Key Products and Pricing - Major products such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye have experienced price fluctuations before and after the Dragon Boat Festival, influenced by increased subsidies for liquor on online platforms. Feedback from channels indicates that the June allocation for Moutai has been paid but not yet delivered. The current wholesale price for Moutai is approximately 2,120 RMB per case and 2,060 RMB per bottle. For Wuliangye, pre-festival payments were low, and previously unpaid amounts are gradually being delivered. Online subsidies from platforms like Meituan have impacted the circulation price of Wuliangye, leading to a slight decline in the wholesale price to about 910 RMB [1][1][1]. Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The pricing of other controlled products remains relatively stable, with Guojiao priced around 860 RMB, and Qinghua 20 old stock priced at 375 RMB, with new stock being more expensive due to QR code features. Overall channel sentiment is cautious, and it is recommended to monitor price trends, particularly whether the wholesale price of Feitian can stabilize at 2,100 RMB. Recent actions by Moutai include the cancellation of the 100% flight purchase activity at airports and the announcement of the end of operations for "Guizhou Travel Premium" by the end of the year. Five new products are set to launch on the iMoutai platform [2][2][2]. Investment Recommendations - Despite ongoing challenges in the industry, it is suggested to maintain a base allocation in undervalued and low-expectation liquor companies. High-end brands with strong market presence, such as Moutai (20X) and Wuliangye (15X), are recommended, along with companies with strong channel dynamics like Shanxi Fenjiu (17X). Additionally, organizations with strong operational capabilities and high return potential, such as Laojiao (12X) and Gujing (13X), should be monitored [2][2][2].