21世纪经济报道记者在春节期间注意到，各类酒企的春节经营重点进一步转向"推动C端开瓶饮用"，无论是多达八家 酒企登上马年春晚，还是各家酒企集体推出开瓶扫码促销，营销活动的核心都是围绕开瓶率展开。 由于需求端疲软，外界原本对今年春节白酒消费不抱期待，但从近期国内外机构调研来看，普遍认为春节白酒销售略 好于预期。 证券分析师张伟敬对21世纪经济报道记者透露，从机构调研的情况来看，今年春节白酒整体动销预计同比仍然有两位 数下滑，但下滑幅度比去年下半年明显收窄，"行业已经有底部信号。" 头部品牌更是交出了超预期表现。 来源：21世纪经济报道 作者：肖夏 今年春节聚餐，不少人学会了在酒桌上扫码。 春节是一年一度的酒饮消费大节，尤其白酒最为重视，今年更是史上最长的春节长假，为创造更多酒饮消费场景提供 了可能性。 综合21世纪经济报道综合记者走访和券商调研的情况来看，今年茅台、五粮液等头部白酒继续占据家庭团圆、节庆宴 请等核心场景的C位。券商多预计茅台今年春节销量有两位数甚至更高的增长，五粮液有个位数至两位数的增长。 尤其是茅台，大单品500m53度飞天茅台今年通过直销渠道放量，春节期间"上桌率"大幅提升。21世纪经济报道 ...

白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 茅台：#动销量超预期，春节飞天线下渠道动销增长20%，考虑i茅台投放增长超30%，主因春节期间#个人消费群 体对散茅的需求爆发（往年茅台备货节前大部分提前完成）。 预计1-2月茅台任务完成度将达45%（比往年快10个点），一季度达50%，将压力前置。 当前库存几乎为零，为后续批价坚挺提供基础，但由于非标系列缩量明显（同比下滑20-30%），需关注后续酒厂 供给端调整。 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、五）#降价后需求弹性凸显，激发了大众消费热度，相应弥补政商场景的缺失，此外#禁酒 令压制的礼赠需求也在春节有一定释放。 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、 ...

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Previous Rating: Buy [2] - Report Date: February 24, 2026 [2] Group 2 - Core Viewpoint: The report summarizes feedback from six liquor distributors across five provinces regarding the sales performance of liquor during the Spring Festival, indicating a narrowing decline in sales of famous liquor compared to the Mid-Autumn Festival. The C-end scenarios, such as banquets, performed well with an upgrade trend, while B-end scenarios are still recovering [6][9][14] - Feedback from Henan liquor distributors indicates that Moutai and Wuliangye are leading in sales, with Moutai's return rate exceeding 35% and Wuliangye's at 30%. There is a trend of consumers concentrating on famous liquor across different price ranges [6][9] - In Shandong, Fenjiu is performing well in the mid-range segment, with a reported sales growth of approximately 8% during the Spring Festival [10] - In Anhui, the wedding market showed strong performance, particularly in the 200 CNY price range, which is experiencing growth [11] - Jiangsu distributors reported a mixed performance, with strong sales at both ends of the market but weakness in the mid-range, indicating a systemic price-driven volume increase [13] - In Sichuan, overall sales volume is expected to decline by 8% and sales amount by 15%, with personal and gift consumption performing better than expected [13] Group 3 - Investment Recommendations: For liquor, the sector is expected to enter a new development cycle in 2026 after four years of adjustment. Key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Guizhou Moutai, Jianshe Liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu. For consumer goods, the industry is expected to see a moderate price increase in 2026, with opportunities in new products and channels. Key recommendations include Anjoy Food, Lihua Food, Angel Yeast, Yanjing Beer, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Dongpeng Beverage, New Dairy, Guoquan, and Tianwei Food [14]

Core Insights - The real consumption is becoming the only measure to evaluate brand quality in the liquor industry during the third Spring Festival adjustment [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales atmosphere for the eighth generation of Wuliangye (000858) is continuously improving, with significant marketing initiatives such as shareholder discounts and QR code scanning during the Spring Festival [3] - Wuliangye's sales have seen a notable increase, with a significant rise in sales volume compared to the same period in 2024 and 2025 [4] - The online sales data is also impressive, with Wuliangye ranking first in the sales of strong-flavored liquor on JD Supermarket [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The newly launched Wuliangye Year of the Horse zodiac wine is in high demand, with reports of it being "hard to find" [5] - The banquet market is recovering significantly, with Wuliangye's 39-degree and Wuliangye 1618 becoming popular products, showing double-digit growth in sales [5] - The inventory cycle for some distributors has dropped to a healthy range of 30 to 45 days, indicating a positive market environment [5] Group 3: Marketing Strategies - Wuliangye has shifted its marketing resources from the channel side to the consumer side, focusing on increasing bottle opening rates and repurchase rates through targeted marketing efforts [3] - The company is actively engaging with younger consumers through social media campaigns and collaborations with popular figures, enhancing emotional resonance and brand recognition [9] - Wuliangye's partnership with the Central Radio and Television Station for the Spring Festival Gala includes the distribution of over 100,000 "Harmonious Gifts," further promoting brand visibility [3][9] Group 4: Consumer Engagement - The company has initiated a value connection with investors, achieving over 10 million yuan in sales since the launch of the shareholder discount program [7] - Wuliangye's new product "Wuliangye One Glance" has achieved over 200 million yuan in sales during its first Spring Festival season [7] - The introduction of a membership center allows consumers to earn points that can be redeemed for exclusive discounts, enhancing customer loyalty [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - Sales performance before the Spring Festival is expected to decline but aligns with forecasts, with Moutai showing leading market conditions. The overall industry is experiencing a double-digit decline in sales, but confidence is gradually recovering as companies ease pressure on sales targets [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery rates. The inventory levels of distributors are lower than last year, but the days of inventory have not decreased significantly due to slower sales [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a projected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January. Wuliangye's sales are expected to remain stable, while other brands like Laojiao and Fenjiu are experiencing varying degrees of decline [3] - The demand for low-end products remains, but brands like Jiannanchun and Yanghe are seeing significant declines in sales, with some brands experiencing double-digit drops [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business dining consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining showing poor performance. However, there is a rebound in gift-giving consumption, and the demand for affordable genuine products is increasing, with the proportion of mass consumption rising to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall industry volume and price have not yet bottomed out, and close attention is needed on the recovery of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's sales and distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector dropping to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio has also decreased, indicating a stabilization in holdings among major liquor companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that the sales performance of key brands is expected to accelerate in the week before the Spring Festival, with tight supply and rising prices supporting market sentiment. Despite a potential decline in financial reports for 2026, leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye have safe margins in valuation and dividends, suggesting a potential dual upgrade in performance and valuation as negative factors gradually dissipate [1] Industry Overview - The overall sales performance before the Spring Festival is experiencing a double-digit decline, which aligns with expectations. Demand is steadily increasing as the festival approaches, and companies are no longer under pressure, leading to a gradual clearance of burdens. Industry confidence still requires further recovery [2] - The overall collection and delivery progress in the industry is slower than the same period last year, with manufacturers no longer enforcing strict sales targets. Channel pressures are being released, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing faster delivery progress compared to last year [2] - The concentration effect among leading brands is evident, with premium liquor brands increasing their market share by trading price for volume. Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline [2] Product Analysis - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with traditional channels delivering monthly and minimal inventory. Sales are growing in double digits, and terminal stocking enthusiasm is rising, with an expected net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [3] - Wuliangye's sales performance varies by region, with expected sales remaining stable or slightly increasing in areas like Sichuan and Anhui. However, other brands like Laojiao and Jiangxiaobai are experiencing significant declines [3] Consumption Scenarios - Business banquet consumption remains suppressed, with mid-to-high-end dining performing poorly. However, there is some recovery in gift-giving, and mass consumption is supported. Moutai's channels are stimulating mass demand, with the proportion of mass consumption increasing to 20% [4] Future Outlook - There is potential for further sales growth during the Spring Festival, with Moutai's supply-demand imbalance expected to continue into Q1, supporting prices. The overall volume and price in the industry have not yet bottomed out, necessitating close observation of Wuliangye and Fenjiu's bottom-line performance and improvements in distributor confidence [5] Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with the proportion of actively managed funds in the liquor sector falling by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% in Q4 2025. The overweight ratio for the liquor sector is only 1.0%, down from 1.2% in Q3 2025, approaching levels seen in Q3-Q4 2013 [6]

Group 1 - The traditional peak season for liquor sales around the Spring Festival has been delayed this year, starting nearly one month later than usual, with significant promotional efforts from companies to help distributors clear inventory [1][5] - Sales activity for the Spring Festival began to show signs of improvement only in mid-January, which is at least one month later than previous years, indicating a slower market response [1][5] - The overall sales volume from January to now has shown a double-digit decline, with a notable differentiation in performance among regional markets and brands, where top brands like Moutai are experiencing shortages while others like Wuliangye are seeing stable sales [5][6] Group 2 - Companies are increasing promotional activities targeting end consumers, focusing on strategies to encourage actual consumption, such as "scan to redeem" campaigns and festive giveaways [5][6] - The market is currently characterized by a "strong at both ends, weak in the middle" inventory situation, where high-end brands maintain stable inventory levels while many mid-tier and regional brands face cautious stocking and ongoing inventory pressure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market is experiencing a price increase, with the average retail price of the top ten products reaching a new high since December 27, 2025, at 9,221 yuan, up 29 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The top ten products saw six price increases, three decreases, and one stable price, indicating a strong overall upward trend [1] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ led the market with a price increase of 13 yuan per bottle, while Gujing Gong 20 followed with a 12 yuan increase [1] - Moutai products, including Feitian Moutai, saw a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle, marking a one-month high due to strong market demand before the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A survey indicated that the overall sales of the national white liquor market have declined by 10%-20%, with significant regional differences [2] - High-end liquor, particularly Feitian Moutai, performed well, with some distributors reporting a year-on-year sales increase of over 40% [2] - The market is characterized by a significant divide, with high-end products benefiting from gift and banquet demand, while mid-range products face challenges due to economic conditions and competition [2] Group 3: Data Collection Methodology - The data for the price trends is collected from approximately 200 points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets [2] - The pricing data aims to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known white liquors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing price fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai's prices rising and various brands engaging in aggressive promotional activities, leading to a complex interplay of supply control and demand stimulation in the industry [4][5][9]. Price Movements - Moutai's wholesale price has increased, with some distributors predicting it could reach 2000 yuan per bottle before the festival. The average retail price for Moutai (500ml/53 degrees) was reported at 1843.38 yuan per bottle as of January 30, up from 1600 yuan in December, marking a 15.6% increase [5][9]. - The price of Wuliangye (500ml/52 degrees) has seen a slight decline, with an average retail price of 874.75 yuan per bottle as of January 30, indicating a downward trend [7]. Promotional Activities - Major liquor brands are launching extensive promotional campaigns, including cash rewards and limited edition gifts, to boost sales during the festive season. For instance, Wuliangye's promotional activities include a gift card worth up to 5000 yuan and a limited edition gift box priced at 1599 yuan [7][8]. - Other brands like Fenjiu and Guojiao 1573 are also offering similar incentives, such as cash prizes and gold jewelry, to attract consumers [8]. Market Dynamics - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding sales performance during the Spring Festival. Some distributors are optimistic about sales, while others report a decline in year-on-year sales, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management [9][11]. - Analysts suggest that the overall market is characterized by a "strong at both ends, weak in the middle" dynamic, where high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintain stable inventory levels, while mid-tier and regional brands face inventory pressures [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: High-End Baijiu Market Key Points - The high-end baijiu market is experiencing an overall decline, but leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share due to price adjustments and stable gifting demand, with consumer choices becoming more concentrated [1][7] - Business consumption has significantly decreased, with a reported drop of 30%-40% in formal business segments [6] - The overall sentiment in the baijiu market is cautious, yet there remains a rigid demand for gifting [2] Company-Specific Insights Moutai - Moutai's current price is around 1,650 yuan, with low inventory levels; the company expects to clear most of its historical inventory before the Spring Festival [3] - A new 1×4 specification product was launched to cater to price-sensitive consumers amid economic downturns, with expected demand peaking around the Spring Festival [8] - Post-Spring Festival, Moutai's price is anticipated to fluctuate between 1,500 and 1,600 yuan, depending on supply dynamics [9] Wuliangye - Wuliangye has achieved a 60% collection rate, with a 30% increase in contracts compared to the previous year, and a stable wholesale price around 790 yuan [3][20] - The company has implemented strategies such as adjusting payment and delivery methods to stabilize prices and improve sales performance [11][12] - In the Chengdu region, Wuliangye's sales have increased by 30%-40% due to streamlined operations and focused distribution [13] Guojiao 1573 - Guojiao 1573 is facing significant sales pressure, particularly in the Chengdu market, with a reported decline of 32%-33% year-on-year [3][21] - The company is struggling with slow collection rates and high inventory levels, leading to potential adjustments in market strategy [1][16] Other Brands - Secondary high-end brands like Jian Nan Chun and Hong Hua Lang have shown mixed performance, with Jian Nan Chun remaining stable while others like She De and Shui Jing Fang have seen declines [4][5] - The overall performance of mid-range baijiu brands remains stable, but there is a noticeable decline in demand for business event wines [8] Market Dynamics - The gifting market for high-end baijiu remains stable, accounting for 60%-70% of the gifting market share, despite a general decline in overall consumption [15] - The non-standard product segment is experiencing a decline of about 30%, primarily due to reduced product offerings [10] - The competitive landscape in the 1,000 yuan price segment is primarily dominated by Wuliangye, with Moutai's 1,935 product impacting market dynamics [45] Future Outlook - The high-end baijiu market is expected to stabilize, with potential growth in specific segments like Moutai and premium products, especially if market activities increase post-Spring Festival [46][48] - The trend of concentrating premium Moutai products among large distributors is likely to enhance market stability and pricing structures [49] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future expectations of the high-end baijiu market and its leading companies.