Core Viewpoint - The price of certain white liquor products in the Southwest region has seen a rebound during the Dragon Boat Festival, but is expected to decline due to the upcoming "618" shopping festival and ongoing "billion-dollar subsidies" [2][9]. Price Trends - The average market price of Feitian Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) rose to 2606.8 RMB per bottle on May 31, up 20 RMB from 2586.8 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average market price of the eighth generation Wuliangye (52 degrees/500ml) increased to 997.69 RMB per bottle, compared to 994.35 RMB on April 31 [3]. - The average price of Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees/500ml) also experienced an increase [3]. Inventory Levels - The fluctuation in white liquor prices is closely related to inventory levels, with recent reports indicating a reduction in high inventory situations for several brands [3][4]. - Wuliangye reported that some terminal inventories are running at zero, while Luzhou Laojiao stated that their inventory situation is currently safe and controllable [4]. Market Dynamics - The overall sales of premium liquor are slowing down, with a notable decline in demand for business and corporate group purchases [7]. - Despite the holiday season, the overall sales performance remains subdued, with many companies adjusting their revenue growth targets to align with macroeconomic indicators [7][8]. E-commerce Impact - The upcoming "618" e-commerce festival is expected to exert further pressure on retail prices, despite a slight price increase for high-end liquors during the Dragon Boat Festival [9]. - Analysts predict that while online sales may see growth during the "618" event, profit margins will be squeezed due to price reductions and high inventory levels among offline distributors [9].

【国金食饮】白酒端午反馈&观点更新-250602 【国金食饮】白酒端午反馈&观点更新-250602 #整体端午动销符合此前预期、延续淡季小幅下滑趋势，5月至今白酒动销预计下滑近10%，下滑幅度未有扩大主 要系低基数+常规聚饮等刚需相对平稳+宴席多地有恢复性增长，但泛商务招待&礼赠需求仍承压。 #端午前后头部单品如飞天茅台、普五批价仍有波动，与近期线上平台酒水补贴加码亦有关。 其中，渠道反馈茅台6月配额已回款尚未到 #整体端午动销符合此前预期、延续淡季小幅下滑趋势，5月至今白酒动销预计下滑近10%，下滑幅度未有扩大主 要系低基数+常规聚饮等刚需相对平稳+宴席多地有恢复性增长，但泛商务招待&礼赠需求仍承压。 #端午前后头部单品如飞天茅台、普五批价仍有波动，与近期线上平台酒水补贴加码亦有关。 其中，渠道反馈茅台6月配额已回款尚未到货、目前原箱批价约2120元/散瓶2060元；普五节前回款不多、此前回 款未发货部分陆续到货，美团等线上渠道补贴放量对散瓶普五流通价盘形成冲击、近期传导至原箱批价约910元小 幅回落，渠道库存不大但市场上也不缺货。 其余控盘分利单品批价相对平稳，如国窖约860元、缩费用控价，青花20老货批 ...