在"i茅台"连续数日以1499元价格放货之后，53度500毫升飞天茅台的批发价再次进入下行通道。多个第三方报价平台数据显示，今日（1月4日）2025年飞天 茅台批发价再次跌破1499元/瓶，比一周前累计下跌约100元/瓶。 业内认为，"i茅台"放货基本被市场真实需求所消化，这也能够有效提高茅台收入，但对行业的长期影响还需观望。 批发价跌破1499元/瓶 2026年1月1日起，"i茅台"正式上线1499元的飞天茅台，遭到市场疯抢，连续3天上线即"秒空"。1月3日晚，"i茅台"发布消息称，1月1日到3日，平台有超10 万名用户买到心仪的产品，并宣布调整购买政策，将每人每日限购12瓶改为6瓶，继续扩大覆盖面。不过1月4日记者看到，"i茅台"上1499元的飞天茅台继 续"秒空"。 伴随着"i茅台"平价茅台的发售，飞天茅台的市场批发价也开始一路走低。1月3日，2025年飞天茅台批发价维持在1500元到1510元/瓶；1月4日，多个第三方 平台的数据显示，散瓶飞天茅台批价再次跌破1499元/瓶，原箱飞天茅台还维持在1505元/瓶左右。 上一次茅台散瓶批价跌破1499元/瓶是在2025年12月初，由于茅台突然向市场放货，茅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has implemented a series of price control strategies in response to the wholesale price of its flagship product, Flying Moutai, dropping below 1499 yuan, marking a significant shift in its pricing policy [1][3]. Price Control Strategies - From December 13 to 14, Guizhou Moutai announced it would stop supplying all Moutai products to distributors by the end of the year, except for those with completed prepayments [1]. - The company plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products like 15-year and 1-liter Flying Moutai in the coming year, shifting to a market-driven supply model based on demand [1]. - East Wu Securities reported that Moutai's growth focus for next year will be on three core products: Moutai 1935, Flying Moutai, and Premium Moutai, targeting price bands of 600 yuan, 1500 yuan, and 2000 yuan respectively [1]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of price control measures, the wholesale price of Flying Moutai rebounded from a low of 1485 yuan to 1570 yuan, indicating a short-term recovery in pricing [3]. - However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with concerns that the lack of significant improvement in white liquor consumption and ongoing industry adjustments may hinder Moutai's return to previous high premium pricing [4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25%, marking the lowest growth rates in nearly 11 years [5]. - To boost market confidence, the company announced a substantial interim dividend of over 30 billion yuan, with a distribution of 23.957 yuan per share (tax included) scheduled for December 18 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The pricing of Baijiu in Deyang is influenced by a complex interplay of raw material costs, production processes, consumer demand, and brand value, reflecting the city's drinking habits and market dynamics [1][7]. Raw Material Costs - The price of glutinous sorghum, a key ingredient for high-quality Baijiu, has increased from 3.8 yuan per jin last year to 5.2 yuan per jin this year, a rise of over 36%, which directly raises the production costs of pure grain solid-state fermented Baijiu [3]. - For locally produced strong-flavor Baijiu, the price for a 500ml bottle typically exceeds 180 yuan when made from local glutinous sorghum, while those made from ordinary northeastern sorghum can be as low as 70 yuan, creating a price difference of nearly 1.6 times [3]. - The price of auxiliary materials like wheat and rice is also sensitive to fluctuations, with a drought last summer causing a 1200 yuan per ton increase in the price of some mid-to-low-end Baijiu, which was reflected in the market within two months [3]. Production Complexity - Traditional Daqu strong-flavor production involves multiple steps, including "continuation of fermentation, solid-state fermentation, and solid-state distillation," taking up to 45 days, resulting in a base cost of 60 yuan per jin, with market prices generally above 200 yuan per bottle [4]. - In contrast, liquid-state Baijiu, which uses edible alcohol for blending, has a production cycle of only 3 days, with 500ml bottles often priced below 40 yuan [4]. Aging and Brand Value - The aging process significantly affects pricing, with "three-year aged" strong-flavor Baijiu priced 50% higher than newly brewed products, and "five-year aged" premium versions can exceed 800 yuan due to enhanced flavor from esterification during aging [4]. - National high-end brands maintain stable prices around 1300 yuan per bottle for their core products, with brand premium accounting for over 70% of the price [4]. - Regional strong brands offer mid-range products priced between 120-350 yuan per bottle, becoming popular choices for weddings and business gatherings, with annual price fluctuations around 12% [4]. Consumer Demand and Market Segmentation - The wedding market favors "red bottle celebratory versions," with 500ml bottles priced between 90-200 yuan, while business dinners focus on mid-to-high-end products priced above 300 yuan, which include costs for packaging and brand marketing [5]. - Daily consumption favors products priced between 60-150 yuan per bottle, while bulk purchases of high-proof bulk liquor are stable at 18-30 yuan per jin, with prices potentially increasing by up to 10% before the Spring Festival due to heightened demand [5]. Market Dynamics - Prices for mid-to-low-end Baijiu typically rise by 8%-12% in the two months leading up to the Spring Festival due to concentrated demand, followed by a gradual price adjustment post-festival [5]. - Local festivals and events can cause temporary price increases for custom Baijiu, which return to normal after the events conclude [5]. - Imported Baijiu prices are more affected by exchange rates and tariffs, with a specific Scottish whisky increasing by 15% over six months due to the appreciation of the pound, while logistics cost reductions from the China-Europe Railway have led to a 10% decrease in some imported vodka prices [5].