Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector showed mixed performance with a slight overall increase, while individual stocks experienced varied movements, indicating a potential recovery in the industry by 2026 according to CICC's forecast [1] Industry Summary - On November 11, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76 points, down 0.39%, while the liquor sector index closed at 2359.06 points, up 0.39% [1] - CICC predicts that the liquor industry will see a gradual improvement starting in the first half of next year, with leading companies benefiting the most due to their strong fundamentals and market share logic [1] Company Summary - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1458.99 CNY per share, down 0.23% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 120.78 CNY per share, down 0.02% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 199.56 CNY per share, up 0.29% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 141.64 CNY per share, down 0.60% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 70.80 CNY per share, down 1.05% [1]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations on November 7, with all three major indices rising and then retreating [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) closed flat, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Yuegui Co., which rose over 3%, along with other stocks like COFCO Sugar, Dongpeng Beverage, and Baba Food [1] - According to Wind data, the Tianhong ETF saw a net inflow of over 45 million yuan over the past week, marking five consecutive days of capital inflow [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, while also covering leading companies in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer [1] - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing on November 6, where it was reported that sales of Moutai 1935 wine significantly increased year-on-year in September and October, and the inventory-to-sales ratio for other series of liquor products is declining [1] - Current inventory-to-sales ratios for Moutai's flagship product are at a healthy level, while other premium products are at relatively reasonable levels [1] Group 3 - CICC predicts that the liquor industry will see improvements in financial statements by 2026, with a clearer upward turning point emerging [1] - The industry is expected to begin a phased recovery starting in the first half of next year, with leading liquor companies benefiting the most due to their fundamental recovery and long-term market share logic [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that the food and beverage industry is gradually finding a bottom, suggesting that current low valuations in the liquor sector present a valuable investment opportunity [2] - The domestic economy is expected to stabilize and recover, allowing cyclical industries like liquor to re-enter a high growth phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, but analysts remain optimistic about a potential recovery in the second half due to product upgrades and market demand recovery [1] Company Summary - Zhenjiu Lidu's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.497 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 39.58% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 575 million RMB, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - Dongwu Securities highlighted the company's clear product matrix and long-term brand and quality upgrade strategy, suggesting that organizational efficiency and channel potential will gradually become evident [1] - Analysts expect a significant narrowing of revenue decline in the second half of 2025, supported by market recovery and product expansion [1] Industry Summary - Huatai Securities noted that the valuation and sentiment in the liquor sector are currently low, but the overall fundamentals are stabilizing [1] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to boost demand in the liquor sector [1] - Government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are continuously being implemented, providing support for the industry [1] - The liquor industry is entering a phase of healthy recovery, with leading companies focusing on long-term sustainable development [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) experienced a stock price increase of 4.16%, reaching HKD 10.27, with a trading volume of HKD 302 million [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu reported a mid-year revenue of RMB 2.497 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 39.58%, while the profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 575 million, down 23.54% year-on-year [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that the company's product matrix is clear, and the long-term layout for brand and quality upgrades is expected to gradually show organizational efficiency and channel potential [1] Group 2 - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates that the revenue decline is expected to narrow significantly, supported by the recovery in demand and the expansion of the Dazhen distribution [1] - Huatai Securities pointed out that the valuation and sentiment in the liquor sector are currently low, with the overall fundamentals stabilizing as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [1] - The government’s ongoing focus on boosting domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-promoting policies are expected to provide support for the sector [1]