Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

抖音"关停"茅台店铺后续：大量店铺已恢复 茅台和抖音互相成就？ 有经销商表示，经核查没有违规行为的店铺已经陆续解封。一家抖音酒类专营店客服人员告诉 《BUG》，店铺内部优化中，售卖茅台的链接已经陆续恢复上架。 对此，茅台大V"茅粉鲁智深"沈艺对《BUG》栏目表示，此事的起因主要还是个别店铺售卖的"茅 台产品"触犯了平台利益，如果是假货，会导致平台声誉度下降，"查一下后面就会放开，不用焦虑，很 快就会继续卖，趋势和大方向是不变的。" 【中国白酒网】近日有报道称，抖音平台关停了全部非授权茅台店铺，引发市场关注。11月16日， 《BUG》在抖音平台搜索"53度飞天茅台"发现，多家酒类专营店的商品链接都可以看到，排在前列的不 再是茅台酱香酒官方旗舰店、茅台文旅官方旗舰店等。此外，可见链接数量比15日有所增加，还有抖音 进口超市的链接。 目前，《BUG》在抖音电商查询到的53度飞天茅台价格大部分处于1600元-1800元区间。也有个别 店铺在销售外包装做遮挡的疑似"53度飞天茅台"，价格标注在1499元左右。 保价之战 事实上，53度飞天茅台在电商平台的价格已经松动。目前，在拼多多"百亿补贴"专区内，单瓶装海 外版53 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations on November 7, with all three major indices rising and then retreating [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) closed flat, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Yuegui Co., which rose over 3%, along with other stocks like COFCO Sugar, Dongpeng Beverage, and Baba Food [1] - According to Wind data, the Tianhong ETF saw a net inflow of over 45 million yuan over the past week, marking five consecutive days of capital inflow [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, while also covering leading companies in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer [1] - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing on November 6, where it was reported that sales of Moutai 1935 wine significantly increased year-on-year in September and October, and the inventory-to-sales ratio for other series of liquor products is declining [1] - Current inventory-to-sales ratios for Moutai's flagship product are at a healthy level, while other premium products are at relatively reasonable levels [1] Group 3 - CICC predicts that the liquor industry will see improvements in financial statements by 2026, with a clearer upward turning point emerging [1] - The industry is expected to begin a phased recovery starting in the first half of next year, with leading liquor companies benefiting the most due to their fundamental recovery and long-term market share logic [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that the food and beverage industry is gradually finding a bottom, suggesting that current low valuations in the liquor sector present a valuable investment opportunity [2] - The domestic economy is expected to stabilize and recover, allowing cyclical industries like liquor to re-enter a high growth phase [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai has announced a mid-term dividend and share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth and commitment to shareholder returns. The proposed dividend is 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan, which represents 66.08% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2]. - The report notes that the sales performance of Moutai's products has shown improvement in September and October, suggesting a recovery in demand for premium liquor. The overall pressure on liquor sales is expected to ease, with a gradual release of genuine demand as prices stabilize [2][3]. - In the beer and beverage sector, the introduction of innovative products like "Xiao Piao" by China Resources Beer and the steady growth of Uni-President's Q3 performance indicate a positive trend in the market. Uni-President reported a net profit of 2.013 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [3]. Summary by Sections White Wine - Kweichow Moutai's mid-term dividend and buyback plan is a significant indicator of the company's confidence and shareholder value focus. The stock's current dividend yield is 3.76% based on projected profits [2]. - The report emphasizes that the sales pressure in the white wine sector has peaked, with expectations for demand recovery as prices return to value [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer segment is entering a seasonal lull, but the report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and significant product contributions, such as Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with Uni-President's Q3 results showcasing resilience and growth potential in a challenging market [3]. Food - The high-end retail market is recovering, with significant sales growth reported in various regions, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence and spending [4]. - The report suggests that advancements in technology sectors like AI and chips are likely to drive consumption upgrades in the food industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai acknowledges the challenges faced by the liquor industry during a cyclical adjustment period, emphasizing the need for innovation and transformation to adapt to market demands and achieve high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown, with increased inventory pressure and a shift towards a stock competition era, driven by changes in consumer habits and business models [1]. - The current industry adjustment is attributed to both external environmental changes and internal misalignments within the industry [1]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Guizhou Moutai plans to leverage the current market recovery by implementing targeted market policies to enhance consumer engagement in both business and lifestyle scenarios [2]. - The company aims to maintain market stability and order in the fourth quarter, focusing on optimizing product distribution based on actual sales performance [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - Moutai has established a sales-driven product distribution system since April 2025, ensuring a healthy inventory turnover ratio for its products [3]. - The company is actively addressing channel pressures and has reported improvements in the inventory levels of its series products, including Moutai 1935 [3]. Group 4: Market Value Management - Moutai is transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to one of high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing market value through a comprehensive management system that includes cash dividends, share buybacks, and improved investor communication [3]. - The company will continue to allocate funds to statutory surplus reserves to strengthen its financial foundation and resilience against industry fluctuations [3].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 11月6月，贵州茅台召开了2025年第三季度业绩说明会。 今年前三季度20家上市白酒公司中，仅2家公司营收实现正增长，贵州茅台是其中之一，并且以6.32% 的增速排第一。具体到第三季度，A股白酒板块营收同比下滑18.38%，归母净利润同比下滑22.00%，贵 州茅台业绩仍实现了正增长。 作为行业龙头，贵州茅台在白酒行业进入深度调整之际，展现出了穿越周期的韧性。具体来看，在外部 环境疲软下，高端酒仍旧稳健增长，渠道保持良性，系列酒则相对承压。 在这次交流会上，投资者对于渠道库存、市值管理、系列酒下滑原因、飞天茅台价格下行等问题均进行 了提问，贵州茅台管理层直面问题，与投资者进行了坦诚交流，展现了龙头企业的担当。 经营业绩：茅台酒持续增长 系列酒受市场需求影响 从整体来看，前三季度茅台酒仍保持了9.3%的增速，系列酒则出现了7.8%的下滑，第三季度茅台酒增 长了7.3%，展现出了较强的韧性。 对于茅台酒增长的原因，管理层透露，6-8月为维护市场韧性与稳定，公司适度减少茅台酒市场投放， 力求科学精准。8月以来，终端动销环比逐步向好回升、增长态势明显，稳住了基本盘。 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai's revenue in Q3 2025 increased by 7.26% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in terminal sales since August after a period of reduced market supply from June to August [1] - The company plans to maintain market stability and respect market rules in Q4, focusing on sustaining the current growth momentum [1] - The terminal sales of Moutai 1935 wine saw significant year-on-year growth from September to October, validating the effectiveness of the "controlled quantity and price protection" strategy [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai is addressing industry-wide challenges such as lack of consumer scenarios and channel pressures by implementing policy incentives to boost terminal sales and optimize product distribution [1] - The company aims to maintain channel resilience as a key focus in Q4, leveraging the growth in terminal sales to alleviate channel pressures [1] - The strategy of transforming consumer scenarios rather than engaging in price wars is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - Guizhou Moutai is the largest holding in the Food ETF (515710), with a holding ratio of 14.89% as of the end of Q3 2025 [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is currently experiencing low valuations, presenting a potential opportunity for left-side positioning in the market [5] - The Food ETF has seen significant net inflows, exceeding 120 million yuan in the last five trading days and over 280 million yuan in the last ten days, indicating strong investor interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on stabilizing its channel partners and adapting to the current challenges in the liquor industry, with a strategic emphasis on sustainable development and market responsiveness [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 130.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a total profit of 89.403 billion yuan, up 6.37% [2]. - The core product, Moutai liquor, generated revenue of 110.514 billion yuan in the same period, reflecting a growth of 9.28% year-on-year [2]. Market Strategy - The company has reduced market supply to maintain stability and has seen a recovery in terminal sales since August, with a notable increase in sales momentum [3][4]. - Moutai is implementing a scientific and precise distribution system to enhance product availability and channel resilience, with a focus on maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio [3][5]. Channel Management - The company is actively addressing the pressures faced by its channel partners and is promoting terminal sales through policy incentives [4][5]. - Moutai 1935 liquor has seen a significant increase in terminal sales year-on-year, while other series are also experiencing a decline in inventory turnover ratios [5]. International Expansion - Guizhou Moutai is committed to international market development, employing a "three-step" strategy and focusing on product optimization, pricing, and brand culture dissemination [5][6]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 30 billion yuan and plans to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan, aiming to balance short-term returns with long-term growth [7][8]. - The proposed cash dividend is 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan based on the current total share capital [7]. Market Outlook - Guizhou Moutai is adapting to the cyclical adjustments in the liquor industry, shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, while ensuring the balance of interests among stakeholders [8].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on stabilizing its channel partners and adapting to the current challenges in the liquor industry, with a strategic emphasis on maintaining market resilience and optimizing product distribution [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 130.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a total profit of 89.403 billion yuan, up 6.37% [3]. - The core product, Moutai liquor, generated revenue of 110.514 billion yuan in the same period, reflecting a growth of 9.28% year-on-year [3]. Market Strategy - The company has reduced market supply since April to maintain market stability and has implemented a scientific distribution system driven by terminal sales [4][5]. - Moutai is actively addressing the challenges posed by changing consumer habits and market conditions through strategic market research and policy incentives [3][5]. Channel Management - Guizhou Moutai emphasizes the importance of channel partner stability and has taken measures to alleviate pressure on distributors, ensuring a healthy channel ecosystem [4][5]. - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover ratio for its products, indicating effective channel management [4]. International Expansion - Guizhou Moutai is committed to international market development, implementing a "three-step" strategy and focusing on optimizing product and pricing systems while expanding its market presence [6]. - The company is addressing the "return liquor" phenomenon by enhancing market control and temporarily suspending supplies to certain channels [6]. Shareholder Returns - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend of 30 billion yuan and plans to repurchase shares worth between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company aims to balance short-term returns with long-term development, ensuring sustainable growth for stakeholders [8].

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 performance shows a revenue of 390.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.26% [2][3] - The company emphasizes a strategy of "transformation and change" in response to the challenges faced by the liquor industry [3][5] - Moutai plans to maintain market stability and channel resilience as key focuses for Q4 [3][4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Guizhou Moutai achieved a total revenue of 1,309.04 billion yuan, a 6.32% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, up 6.25% [2] - The revenue from Moutai liquor specifically reached 1,105.14 billion yuan, while series liquor contributed 178.84 billion yuan [3] Market Strategy - The company has implemented a scientific distribution system driven by terminal sales since April, ensuring a healthy channel inventory ratio for its products [4] - Moutai is focusing on internationalization and has paused supply to certain channels to manage the "return liquor" phenomenon [4][6] Channel Management - Guizhou Moutai is actively working to alleviate pressure on its channel partners and enhance channel resilience during the industry's deep adjustment period [4][5] - The company is committed to protecting consumer rights and maintaining brand integrity through advanced anti-counterfeiting measures [5] Shareholder Returns - Moutai announced a share buyback plan with a budget between 15 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan, marking its second share buyback since listing [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 300.01 billion yuan [6][7] Future Outlook - The company aims to transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a focus on a multi-dimensional value management system [7] - Moutai's strategy includes regular cash dividends, share buybacks, and enhanced communication with investors to ensure sustainable shareholder returns [7]