临近中秋国庆"双节"，飞天茅台酒再度成为关注焦点，尤其是其价格。不少消费者注意到，部分自媒体 比价平台显示的飞天茅台酒价格，与自己在终端门店实际购买的价格并不一致；在电商平台，飞天茅台 酒的价格也是"五花八门"，甚至不乏"超低价"。 为何会出现这种状况？带着这个疑问，笔者9月23日分别调研了多省市酒商以及部分电商平台，尝试揭 开飞天茅台酒终端零售价格背后的"真实"与"幻象"。 市场实探： "飞天"终端零售价总体平稳 笔者发现，各地飞天茅台酒终端零售价格仍维持在1900元左右，近期价格随着双节需求增长，呈现小幅 波动上升态势，总体较为稳定。 存在价格区间的主要原因，除了飞天茅台酒的散瓶价和原箱价的差异，还有地区的差异。以北京酒商反 馈的价格为例，其散瓶飞天茅台酒的终端零售价格在1800元以上，而原箱酒的单价能到1900元以上。 酒商面对团购客户与一般客户也会有不同报价，团购客户因采购量大，能得到更为优惠的价格。以湖南 长沙酒商反馈的数据为例，给团购客户的价格为1880元，给一般客户的价格则为1950元。 货源、物流成本等因素一定程度影响酒商的终端零售价格。无论是河南郑州酒商，还是广东广州酒商， 提供给笔者的报价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is redefining the relationship between liquor and consumers by emphasizing a return to its roots, focusing on respecting, connecting, and serving consumers in the evolving landscape of spiritual consumption [1][3][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The 14th China (Guizhou) International Wine Expo was successfully held from September 9 to 13, showcasing Moutai's entire product line and narrating the complete journey of liquor from raw materials to the glass [1] - Moutai's exhibition featured three main areas: "Birth, Growth, and Bloom," highlighting the quality and cultural heritage of Chinese national brands [1][4] Group 2: Cultural and Strategic Shift - Moutai's chairman, Zhang Deqin, emphasized two key points: returning to the essence of Chinese liquor culture and accelerating the shift from selling liquor to selling a lifestyle [3][12] - The liquor industry faces the challenge of reconstructing its value as younger generations drift away from traditional liquor culture, prompting Moutai to adopt a strategy focused on cultural value and consumer experience [4][5] Group 3: Experience and Engagement - Moutai's approach includes creating immersive, experiential, and cultural environments through four dimensions: liquor + ecology, liquor + culture, liquor + technology, and liquor + tourism [6][7] - The exhibition showcased Moutai's commitment to integrating traditional brewing wisdom with modern technology, enhancing consumer trust and engagement [6][7][10] Group 4: Consumer-Centric Practices - Moutai aims to respect, connect, and serve consumers by establishing quality recognition, cultural IPs, and community engagement initiatives [10][11] - The company is expanding its product matrix to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing its service systems to create fulfilling experiences [10][11] Group 5: Future Vision - Moutai's initiatives reflect a broader industry trend towards cultural-driven strategic transformation, with a focus on emotional and cultural consumption [9][12] - The launch of the 2025 "Chinese Liquor Culture Month" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for new cultural development indicates a commitment to redefining the core values of liquor culture [12][13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of seven asset classes over a period of one and a half years, originally valued at 5 million [2][4] - The seven asset classes include stocks (Moutai, Nvidia, Microsoft), cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin), precious metals (gold), real estate (small apartment in Beijing), and luxury goods (LV bags) [2][3] - Nvidia has shown the highest return, with a price increase of 100.1%, while the real estate investment has suffered the most with a decline of 17.9% [5][6] Group 2 - Nvidia is highlighted as a leader in the AI sector, with expectations of a price increase of 50%-100% over the next 3-5 years, despite potential risks from competition and policy changes [10][12] - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, with a historical increase of 600% over the past decade, but it faces risks related to regulatory scrutiny and market consensus [13][15] - Microsoft benefits from its Azure cloud services and plans to increase subscription prices, although it faces intense competition from Amazon and Google [16] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged significantly, with a current price of 3644 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as increased money supply and central bank purchases [17][20][21] - Moutai, as a leading domestic liquor brand, has seen a decline in stock price and sales, but it retains a strong market position due to its brand value and cultural significance [23][27] - Luxury goods, particularly LV bags, are generally not good investments due to depreciation, but limited edition items may retain or increase in value [28] Group 4 - Real estate investments in core urban areas like Beijing have shown poor performance, with low rental yields and depreciation concerns [30][32] - The article suggests that each asset class has its own logic and cycle, emphasizing the importance of diversification in investment strategies [34]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The alcoholic beverage industry in China is undergoing a significant adjustment phase, with varying performance across different segments such as baijiu, beer, yellow wine, and wine. While some companies are experiencing declines, others are managing to maintain or grow their revenues through strategic adjustments and market focus [3][4][14]. Baijiu Industry - The baijiu sector is the most affected by the adjustment phase, with 13 out of 20 listed companies reporting declines in both revenue and net profit. Only 6 companies showed growth in both metrics [4][5]. - Major players like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu have managed to maintain growth, while smaller companies face more significant declines [4][5]. - Companies are adopting strategies to address inventory issues and optimize product channels, attributing performance declines to proactive adjustments rather than market weakness [5][6]. Beer Industry - The beer industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer reporting growth in both revenue and net profit. In contrast, foreign companies like Budweiser APAC are experiencing declines [6][7]. - The high-end segment continues to be a focal point, with companies competing in the premium market, while the 8 yuan price range is emerging as a new growth driver [7][8]. - Beer companies are also diversifying into other beverage sectors to seek new growth opportunities [8][9]. Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine sector is struggling to achieve collective growth, with only a few companies like Kuaijishan showing positive performance. The market remains heavily concentrated in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [10][11]. - Despite the introduction of new products aimed at younger consumers, overall performance remains lackluster, with traditional products still driving most sales [10][11]. Wine Industry - The wine market is in a deep adjustment phase, with most companies reporting revenue declines. The market is heavily impacted by the increasing share of imported wines, which continue to challenge domestic brands [12][13]. - Companies are exploring new sales channels, such as live e-commerce, to boost performance and adapt to changing consumer preferences [13][14]. - The emotional value of wine consumption, such as "self-drinking" and "social drinking," is seen as a potential avenue for recovery in the domestic market [13][14].

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The alcohol industry is experiencing a deep adjustment phase, with most listed companies reporting a shift from significant growth to "active adjustment" in performance [1][2] - The overall structure of the industry remains largely unchanged, with market concentration increasing towards leading companies [1][2] Group 2: Baijiu Industry - The baijiu sector is the most affected by the adjustment, with 20 listed companies reporting mixed results: 6 companies saw both revenue and net profit increase, while 13 reported declines [2][3] - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye maintained growth, while smaller firms faced more significant performance declines, highlighting a growing industry divide [2][3] Group 3: Beer Industry - The beer industry is showing signs of recovery, with domestic companies reporting revenue growth while international firms are experiencing declines [5][6] - High-end products are becoming a key competitive factor, with companies like China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer reporting significant profit increases [6][7] Group 4: Huangjiu Industry - The huangjiu sector is struggling to achieve collective growth, with only one of three listed companies reporting an increase in revenue [8][9] - Companies are focusing on national expansion and targeting younger demographics, but overall performance remains lackluster [8][9] Group 5: Wine Industry - The domestic wine market is still in a deep adjustment phase, with most companies reporting revenue declines, except for a few like CITIC Niyah [10][11] - The market is facing challenges from imported wines, which have increased in value despite a decrease in volume [10][11]

7月13日晚，贵州茅台发布2023年上半年主要经营数据，公司预计上半年实现营业总收入706亿元左右， 同比增长18.8%左右。其中，茅台酒营业收入为591亿元左右，系列酒营业收入为99亿元左右。预计实 现归属于上市公司股东的净利润356亿元左右，同比增长19.5%左右。 增速15%目标可达性高 从同比数据来看，贵州茅台2022年上半年实现营业收576.17亿元，同比增长17.38%；实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润297.94亿元，同比增长20.85%。这意味着贵州茅台今年上半年经营稳健，业绩增速同比 基本持平。 贵州茅台2023年的经营目标为实现营业总收入同比增长15%左右，基本建设投资达71.09亿元。按照贵 州茅台2022年度业绩计算，公司2023年度营业总收入目标为1467亿元左右，所以半年度业绩符合目标任 务进度。 浙商证券认为，贵州茅台全年收入增速15%目标可达性高，茅台集团有望加速发展。短期看，在持续落 地"五合营销法"和加强市场管理基础上，产品端茅台酒和系列酒双轮驱动：茅台酒有望通过持续提升非 标产品占比和直销渠道占比实现量价齐升，系列酒则有望通过持续结构提升和推出高价位新品等实现吨 价持续提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing intensified competition and is increasingly looking to international markets for growth opportunities amid domestic market pressures [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Wind baijiu index has shown a downward trend since May, with a cumulative decline of 8.01%, and Kweichow Moutai's stock price has decreased by 3.45% [1]. - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on East Asia and South Asia for international expansion, with operations in 64 countries and regions [1]. - Wuliangye plans to establish brand cultural experience spaces in over 50 cities worldwide to enhance cultural recognition of Chinese baijiu among overseas consumers [1]. Group 2: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Practices - ESG management is becoming a key focus for baijiu companies as they expand internationally, with a complete ESG management system seen as beneficial for overseas operations [1]. - Kweichow Moutai's environmental investment reached 302 million yuan in 2024, a 45.20% increase year-on-year, significantly outpacing its revenue growth of 15.71% [3]. - Wuliangye's environmental investment surged by 176% to 690 million yuan, while its revenue grew by 7.09% [3]. Group 3: Carbon Emissions and Reporting - Kweichow Moutai's greenhouse gas emissions increased by 13.96% overall, with scope 1 emissions rising by 17.52% and scope 2 emissions decreasing by 74.33% [5]. - Wuliangye and Yanghe's carbon emissions decreased by 1.55% and 2.3%, respectively, with Wuliangye significantly increasing its scope 3 emissions reporting from 0.78 million tons to 12.08 million tons due to expanded reporting categories [6][7]. - Kweichow Moutai did not disclose specific scope 3 emissions but indicated that purchased goods and services accounted for 76.43% of its carbon emissions [7]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The baijiu industry faces challenges in international markets, including strict environmental regulations and diverse consumer demands [1][13]. - The establishment of a robust ESG framework is seen as essential for enhancing international competitiveness and compliance [14]. - The need for standardized reporting and clear regulatory requirements for scope 3 emissions is emphasized to improve comparability and operational feasibility for companies [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of e-commerce promotions on the liquor market, particularly for Moutai, is temporary and has shown signs of recovery in pricing [1] Pricing Trends - On June 26 and 27, the price of 500ml Moutai on various third-party platforms increased by over 200 yuan in a single day, indicating a strong rebound in pricing [2] - Offline prices for Moutai remained stable, generally above 2000 yuan, with specific stores reporting prices of 2048 yuan and 2200 yuan for scattered bottles [2][3] - The online transaction prices during the 618 promotion were influenced by significant subsidies from e-commerce platforms, but actual settlement prices at offline terminals remained stable [3] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Moutai's stable offline prices reflect its strong demand and supply dynamics, as it is recognized as a high liquidity consumer product [3][5] - The core consumers of Moutai prioritize authenticity over low prices, indicating a strong brand loyalty [5] - Moutai's management has initiated a "three transformations" strategy focusing on new consumer groups, innovative consumption scenarios, and a shift in service approach [5][6] Cultural and Emotional Connection - Moutai aims to transcend its role as a beverage, becoming a medium for emotional connections during significant life events [6] - The brand's recent product launches and market activities have successfully engaged consumers, reinforcing its cultural significance [7][8] Market Resilience and Future Outlook - Moutai's sales have shown stable growth across various channels, indicating strong market resilience [8] - The brand's ability to adapt to consumer needs and innovate its product offerings positions it well for future stability and growth in the high-end liquor market [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the resilience of value investors in the face of market fluctuations, focusing on long-term potential rather than short-term noise [1] - Recent price declines in the liquor market are attributed to speculative behavior rather than genuine demand shifts, with expectations of recovery as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [2] - The stability of prices for older vintages of Moutai reflects their strong demand for consumption and collection, indicating a shift towards rational pricing in the market [4] Group 2 - The trend of consumers increasingly using Moutai in non-business settings highlights a shift in consumption patterns, with a focus on personal enjoyment and quality [6] - The overall liquor market is witnessing a concentration of demand towards premium brands, with Moutai benefiting from its established reputation and quality during industry adjustments [7] - The cultural products associated with Moutai are experiencing high demand, indicating a growing trend of consumers seeking personal fulfillment through collection and enjoyment [4][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a downward trend in liquor prices in major cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with over two-thirds of products experiencing price declines [1][2][4] - In Guangzhou, the retail price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to an average of 2579.73 yuan per bottle, with some retailers offering it at around 2300 yuan, while other premium products like Wuliangye have seen a slight decrease of 18 yuan per bottle [2][3] - Shenzhen's market shows a similar trend, with over two-thirds of sampled products experiencing price drops, although some prices may be artificially inflated due to limited availability in certain channels [4][5] Group 2 - In Dongguan, nearly half of the sampled products maintained stable prices, with only 8 out of 21 products showing a decline, while the price of Luzhou Laojiao increased by 61.1 yuan to 1075.6 yuan per bottle due to replenished stock in certain channels [7][8] - The article notes that the upcoming 618 shopping festival has led to price adjustments on e-commerce platforms, with 15 out of 21 sampled premium liquors experiencing price reductions, while only one liquor saw an increase [9][10] - A comparison between the Bay Area and Southwest liquor prices reveals that the Bay Area's retail prices are significantly higher, with differences ranging from 15 to 82 yuan, attributed to higher demand for premium products in the region [11][12]