茅台股东大会的餐桌上，飞天茅台被悄然撤下，换上了21元一瓶的蓝莓果汁，这个微小变化背后，是一场席卷整个白酒行业的深度危机。 "欢迎晚宴上股东交流明显变少，不及以往热闹了。"一位参加贵州茅台2025年股东大会的投资者回忆，餐桌上的飞天茅台被替换成了蓝莓果汁。 而茅台生态农业公司的这款蓝莓汁，在电商平台售价仅约21元一瓶。 这不仅是贵州茅台对中央"新禁酒令"的响应，更映射出白酒行业面临的深刻变局。中国酒业协会最新报告显示，2025年上半年白酒行业呈现"量价齐跌，费 用上升"的特点。 01 产量萎缩，白酒市场"量价双杀" 白酒行业正在经历连续第八年的产量下滑。2025年一季度，全国白酒产量仅为103.2万千升，同比下降7.2%。 与2016年的产量高峰1358.4万千升相比，如今的产量已经缩水了约三分之二。 市场表现更为严峻。调查显示，59.7% 的酒企营业利润减少，50.9% 的企业营业额下滑。行业平均存货周转天数已长达900天，意味着企业需要近两年半的 时间才能清空库存。 2025年上半年白酒企业业绩呈现两极分化，具体数据如下： 行业前六大企业营收已占据整体市场的八成以上，利润占比更是高达86%。 · 贵州茅台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy of Duan Yongping, who continues to buy shares of Kweichow Moutai despite a significant decline in its stock price, indicating a long-term confidence in the company's business model and market position [1][3][5]. Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai's stock price fell to 1419.2 CNY per share, down over 45% from its peak of 2600 CNY in 2021 [1]. - The company reported revenue of 910.94 billion CNY and a net profit of 454.03 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, both showing over 8% year-on-year growth [9]. Investment Strategy - Duan Yongping's investment approach is characterized by a long holding period, often spanning a decade, and he views Moutai as a superior alternative to cash [5][13]. - He has publicly increased his stake in Moutai three times in 2025, demonstrating a contrarian investment strategy against prevailing market fears [3][5]. Business Model and Financials - Moutai enjoys a high gross margin of 92% and a net margin of 52%, significantly higher than typical consumer goods [5]. - The company has a strong pricing power, with a factory price of 1169 CNY per bottle and a market price of approximately 1760 CNY per bottle, allowing for profit margins even under wholesale price pressure [7]. - Moutai's operating cash flow has exceeded net profit for seven consecutive years, with a dividend yield of 3.47% in 2025, surpassing the yield of ten-year government bonds [7]. Market Challenges - The overall liquor industry is facing challenges, with over 100 distilleries closing and 60% of companies experiencing price declines [9]. - Kweichow Moutai is also contending with a generational gap in consumer preferences, as only 13% of Gen Z consumers choose liquor, prompting the company to explore new product lines [11]. Future Outlook - The company's rolling P/E ratio is approximately 20 times, which is only 60% of its average over the past five years, indicating potential undervaluation [13]. - Moutai's management plans to repurchase 6 billion CNY worth of shares and maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 75% of net profit over the next three years [13].

2012年八项规定后，白酒行业遭遇了几乎毁灭性的打击，但在此之后 ，白酒 又逐渐复苏。 作者 | 远禾 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 白酒行业，历史总在轮回。 今年 5月新修订的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》发布，被称为史上最严"禁酒令"。由此，白 酒行业又迎来新一轮的市场考验。 随着白酒股中报业绩陆续披露，行业的冷意也再次呈现在投资面前。 01 近一个月来，飞天茅台连续暴跌，连续跌破 2000元、1900元两个关口。 618期间，53度飞天茅台价格甚至跌破1800元大关，创下2017年以来新低，相较2021年的高 点，已经暴跌近40%。 | | 茅台飞天 | | 2025年7月18日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 25年飞天(原) | | 53度/500ml | 1930 | 1930 | | 2 25年飞天(散) | | 53度/500ml | 1870 | 1870 | | 24年飞天(原) | | 1 53度/500m 收入 3 倍 | ...