哈喽，大家好，小玖今天要和大家聊聊白酒圈的大新闻：五粮液2025年第三季度的财报简直是"平地惊雷"，营收和净利润直接断崖式下跌，连多年的"茅五 领跑"格局都被打破了。 10月30日晚间，五粮液（000858.SZ）披露的三季度报告显示，单季度营收仅81.74亿元，同比下滑52.66%；归母净利润20.19亿元，同比骤降65.62%。 更让人意外的是，山西汾酒同期营收和净利润双双反超五粮液，结束了白酒行业长期由茅台、五粮液主导的双雄格局。 这组数据不仅让投资者哗然，更暴露了高端白酒行业深层的渠道危机。 价格倒挂成"元凶"，线上低价倒逼经销商承压 小玖梳理数据时发现，五粮液业绩暴跌的核心症结的是持续发酵的价格倒挂问题。 以核心大单品八代普五为例，目前线下经销商批价维持在850-900元/瓶，但电商平台的"百亿补贴"频道直接把价格压到640元左右，价差最高可达260元。 这种悬殊的价格差，让消费者宁愿冒着买到假酒的风险，也要选择线上渠道。更严峻的是，电商低价背后还暗藏假货隐患。 五粮液近期鉴定数据显示，线上平台购买的148瓶产品中，假冒产品占比达12%，其中77%的假货来自电商"百亿补贴"专区。 | | 本报告期 ...

江瀚视野观察 . 江瀚视野，瀚海观察，经济视角观天下，用财经审视生活，为中国所有的中产人群服务，做几亿中国人自己的财经平台，让我们一起为了实现财富的增值 而奋斗吧！ 说起最近的白酒企业，可以说是相当不如意，本该金九银十的白酒消费旺季，却出现了白酒企业三季报集体遇冷的情况，甚至有白酒企业单季利润最多降 92.6%的情况，这到底是怎么回事？白酒企业的十年最差三季报到底是怎么出现的？ 01 单季净利最多降92.6%的白酒赛道 据第一财经的报道，白酒行业迎来行业深度调整期以来业绩跌幅"最惨"的三季报。在已经公布业绩的白酒上市公司中，多数酒企第三季度业绩加速下滑， 部分酒企净利润同比降幅近三位数。 在业内看来，造成酒企三季报加速下滑主要与市场需求不足有关。记者注意到，率先公布业绩的区域酒企整体业绩降幅都在放大。口子窖第三季度单季主 营收入同比大降46.2%，单季度归母净利润更是同比大降92.6%；前三季度主营收入31.7亿元，同比下降27.2%；归母净利润7.4亿元，同比下降43.4%。老白 干酒第三季度营收和归母净利润也有47.6%和68.5%的下滑。 以下文章来源于江瀚视野观察 ，作者江瀚视野观察 首先，整体消费市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the liquor industry in Q3 2025 experienced the largest quarterly decline in nearly a decade, indicating a significant adjustment phase that requires a comprehensive assessment of the industry's current state, core causes, and future transformation directions [1] Group 1: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The downward trend may be nearing its bottom, with a potential turning point expected in Q1 2026, as the current decline is likely a short-term adjustment rather than the onset of a long-term downturn [3] - Multiple institutions have identified Q3 2025 as a phase of low valuation for the industry, with negative factors such as high inventory and weak consumption already fully released, reducing the likelihood of further demand decline [3] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, with a recovery in consumer confidence and gradual inventory clearance, which will help revive core consumption scenarios like business banquets and gifting [3] - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu continue to show positive revenue growth, demonstrating strong risk resistance capabilities [3] Group 2: Causes of Industry Adjustment - The current performance decline is attributed to a combination of short-term cyclical pressures and long-term structural changes, which determine the depth of the adjustment and the necessity for transformation [7] - Short-term pressures include severe channel inventory backlog, extended turnover cycles, and external factors like the ban on alcohol for official receptions, which have further contracted high-end consumption scenarios [7] - Long-term structural changes are characterized by a generational shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers favoring lower-alcohol and fruit-based beverages, leading to a decline in the market share of traditional liquor [7] Group 3: Industry Restructuring and Company Survival - The current adjustment represents a convergence of industrial, consumption, and policy cycles, presenting both challenges and opportunities for industry reshuffling, resulting in a "strong survive, weak exit" scenario [11] - Companies are shifting from a "big product" strategy to developing lower-alcohol, lighter, and flavored products, while also expanding into new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and outdoor activities [11] - Traditional channel models are collapsing, prompting a shift towards chain and digital models to enhance industry concentration and resolve the "strong factory, weak distributor" conflict [11] - Over 4,800 liquor-related companies have been deregistered or revoked in the past year, primarily affecting small brands reliant on regional distribution and mid-range products, indicating a risk of elimination for companies lacking brand strength and innovation capabilities [11] Group 4: Conclusion - The significant drop in performance in Q3 2025 is viewed as a "growing pain" for the liquor industry amid short-term pressures and long-term transformations, rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn [14] - With inventory clearance, consumption recovery, and corporate transformation, the industry is expected to reach a turning point in Q1 2026, but companies must innovate across products, channels, and marketing to meet the evolving demands of a new generation of consumers [14]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped below the official suggested retail price of 1499 yuan, reflecting a major shift in the market dynamics of the liquor industry, particularly for high-end products like Moutai [2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has fallen from a peak of 3800 yuan per bottle in 2021 to below 1499 yuan, indicating a more than 60% decline [2]. - By April 2024, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai had decreased from 2600 yuan to 2100 yuan, signaling a market realization that prices may not continue to rise indefinitely [4]. - As of January 2025, the wholesale price further declined to 1980 yuan, with a significant drop to 1770 yuan by June, indicating a structural weakening in market support [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side changes and demand-side shifts, including the breakdown of the scarcity narrative that previously supported high prices [7][8]. - Moutai's production has increased significantly, with 2023 production reaching 57,200 tons, and projected capacity of 67,200 tons by 2025, leading to an oversupply situation [8]. - The total market inventory of Moutai is estimated to be between 700 million to 800 million bottles, suggesting an average of one bottle for every two people in China, undermining the previously cultivated image of scarcity [8]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The traditional reliance on government and high-end business consumption for Moutai has been disrupted by new regulations limiting alcohol in official settings, altering market expectations [9]. - Younger consumers are increasingly distancing themselves from traditional drinking cultures, with only 13% of young consumers choosing Moutai, leading to a significant generational shift in consumption patterns [9]. - The cultural perception of Moutai is changing, as younger generations view traditional drinking customs as outdated, opting for alternatives like wine and craft beer [9]. Group 4: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the liquor industry reflects a challenging environment, with major A-share liquor companies reporting a 5.90% decline in revenue and a 6.93% drop in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - The inventory pressure in the industry has reached a historical high, with total inventory for 20 listed liquor companies amounting to 170.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.32% [11]. - Despite these challenges, Moutai has shown resilience with a 6.32% increase in revenue and a 6.25% rise in net profit in the same period, although it still faces significant market pressures [11]. Group 5: Future Directions - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce has proposed a shift in the liquor industry from merely selling products to offering lifestyle experiences, indicating a fundamental change in strategic direction [12]. - This transformation requires a comprehensive rethinking of product design, channel development, and brand communication to connect with new consumer demographics [12]. - The industry is entering a new phase where success will depend on understanding consumer changes and adapting strategies accordingly [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of Moutai, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics that have led to this change. The once-coveted status of Moutai as a "social currency" is diminishing as younger consumers prioritize different drinking experiences over traditional high-end liquor [5][16][18]. Price Decline of Moutai - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has fallen below 1600 yuan, marking a historic low, down from a peak of around 3000 yuan in late 2021, representing a nearly 50% decrease in just four years [5][11]. - In early 2024, Moutai's price was stable at around 2900 yuan, but by April, it dropped to 2100 yuan, indicating a shift in market sentiment and consumer demand [9][11]. - By November 2024, the price had further declined to 1600 yuan, with reports of a 22% drop in high-end dining bottle opening rates [12][15]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The decline in Moutai's price reflects broader changes in the white liquor market, including increased production capacity and a shift in consumer preferences towards lower-alcohol and flavored beverages [7][16][22]. - Young consumers are moving away from the traditional image of Moutai as a status symbol, favoring a more casual drinking experience that emphasizes atmosphere over prestige [4][18]. - The perception of Moutai as a "liquid gold" has shifted, with consumers now viewing it as just another product rather than an investment or a symbol of status [18][23]. Supply and Inventory Issues - Moutai's production capacity has significantly increased, with an estimated output of 57,200 tons in 2023, projected to reach 67,200 tons by 2025, leading to an oversupply situation [22][23]. - The total inventory, including social circulation stock, is estimated to be around 700 million bottles, which has contributed to the price decline as the market adjusts to this excess supply [22][24]. - The traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai, heavily reliant on government and high-end business banquets, are diminishing due to regulatory changes and economic conditions, further impacting demand [22][26]. Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The entire white liquor industry is facing challenges, with many companies reporting high inventory levels and extended turnover days, indicating a slowdown in sales [25][26]. - Moutai is attempting to pivot towards "open bottle consumption" and targeting younger consumers, but these efforts have met with mixed results as younger demographics show little interest in high-alcohol products [26][27]. - The article concludes that while Moutai's price decline may be seen as a negative development for the brand, it could ultimately lead to a healthier market where genuine consumer demand drives sales rather than speculative investment [28][29].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant transformation, facing challenges such as declining production and prices, while also experiencing new opportunities driven by consumer trends and digitalization [1][6][14] Group 1: Market Performance (2024-2025) - In 2024, the number of large-scale liquor enterprises decreased to 989, with total production at 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decline of 1.8%. However, sales revenue reached 796.38 billion yuan, up 5.3%, and total profit increased by 7.8% to 250.87 billion yuan, indicating a shift from extensive to intensive development [2][16] - The top six brands (CR6) accounted for 86% of the industry's total profit in 2024, up from 55% in 2014, highlighting a growing concentration in the market [2][20] - In the first quarter of 2025, the industry faced further pressure with production down 7.2% year-on-year to 1.032 million kiloliters, marking a potential eighth consecutive year of decline [3][26] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Pricing - The first half of 2025 saw a significant shift in consumer behavior, with only 26.9% of distributors reporting increased sales before the Spring Festival, dropping to 11.5% during the May Day holiday [4] - The price range of 100-300 yuan became the most active market segment, while higher price segments faced significant challenges, with the price of premium brands like Moutai dropping over 36% since 2022 [4][6] - Young consumers are increasingly defining value in the liquor market, prompting companies to innovate product designs and marketing strategies to attract this demographic [5][6] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing a "volume and price decline" scenario, with over 59.7% of liquor companies reporting reduced operating profits due to rising costs and declining sales [3][34] - The average inventory turnover days reached 900, a 10% increase year-on-year, indicating high inventory pressure and a widespread issue of price inversion affecting 60% of companies [23][34] - The overall market is characterized by a cautious consumer sentiment, with many companies resorting to discounts and bundled sales to maintain market share, further squeezing profit margins [3][34] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that 2025 presents a strategic opportunity for the liquor industry to achieve high-quality development despite short-term challenges, focusing on product innovation, digital transformation, and cultural marketing [6][14] - The industry is expected to transition from "scale growth" to "value growth," with a focus on enhancing product quality and consumer experience [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing a severe downturn, characterized by plummeting sales, rising inventory, and a significant shift in consumer behavior, leading to widespread closures of traditional liquor stores and a crisis among liquor companies [1][3][5]. Industry Overview - The number of liquor stores in China is projected to decrease by 17% to 22% in 2025, with some regions experiencing closure rates exceeding 30% [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for the liquor industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating a severe liquidity issue for distributors [3]. - Price inversion is prevalent across all price segments, with 32% of high-end liquor priced below cost, leading to minimal profit margins for retailers [3]. Sales and Revenue Trends - In June 2025, sales dropped by 70% due to new alcohol restrictions, with traditional stores struggling to maintain revenue during peak seasons [5]. - Over 90% of liquor companies reported revenue declines in the third quarter of 2025, with notable drops in companies like Shede and Yingjia, which saw revenue decreases of 17% and 18.09% respectively [5][7]. - The overall revenue of 20 listed liquor companies in A-shares fell by 0.86% in the first half of 2025, marking a significant shift in the industry [5]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The proportion of drinkers in China has decreased from 38% in 2016 to 29% in 2024, with a notable decline in the core consumer group of men aged 30-60 [8]. - Younger consumers are increasingly turning to alternatives like beer and cocktails, with white liquor's market share among young people dropping to 31.8% [8][10]. - Traditional consumption scenarios, such as government and business events, have drastically reduced, leading to a shift towards more casual drinking occasions [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a crisis of overcapacity, with production declining from a peak of 13.58 million kiloliters in 2016 to 4.145 million kiloliters in 2024 [7]. - The stock market for liquor has also suffered, with the China Securities White Liquor Index halving over four years, and significant drops in stock prices for major companies like Yanghe and Jiu Gui [7]. Strategic Responses - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's reclassification of liquor as a historical classic industry aims to provide policy support, but the industry faces challenges from high inventory and changing consumer preferences [10][11]. - There is a debate within the industry about whether to adapt to younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products or to maintain traditional practices and cultural heritage [11].

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped below 1700 yuan for the first time, marking a significant decline in its market value, with a year-to-date price drop exceeding 20% [1][3]. Price Decline - Moutai's price has seen a rapid decline, falling from over 2200 yuan at the beginning of the year to 1690 yuan recently, indicating a drastic change in market dynamics [1][3]. - The price drop is attributed to a combination of factors, including changes in management and sales strategies, as well as broader industry challenges [3][4]. Management Changes - Moutai has experienced frequent leadership changes, with four different chairpersons in five years, leading to inconsistent sales strategies [3]. - Each leadership period has brought different approaches to pricing and distribution, contributing to the current pricing crisis [3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [3][4]. - Despite revenue growth, the growth rate is declining, with both Moutai liquor and series liquor experiencing reduced gross margins [4]. Industry Challenges - The industry is undergoing a significant adjustment, with a sharp decline in government consumption and a 22% drop in high-end dining bottle opening rates [6][8]. - The younger generation (Z generation) shows reduced interest in high-alcohol spirits, leading to a shift towards lower-alcohol beverages [6][8]. - High inventory levels are prevalent, with 20 listed liquor companies holding nearly 170 billion yuan in stock, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by high inventory and declining sales, with many liquor companies experiencing profit declines [6][8]. - The myth of Moutai's perpetual price increase has been shattered, as the market transitions from a channel-driven model to a consumption-driven one [8]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a potential turning point for the market, with industry insiders closely monitoring its impact [8].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai has undergone a significant leadership change, with Chen Hua appointed as the new chairman, replacing Zhang Deqin, marking another shift in leadership within a year and a half [1][2]. Company Overview - Chen Hua, born in 1972, has a background in the energy sector and holds a master's degree in engineering. He has held various leadership roles in state-owned enterprises prior to his appointment at Moutai [3]. - Zhang Deqin, who served as chairman for a year and a half, led Moutai to achieve record-high performance metrics, with all core indicators surpassing the initial growth target of approximately 15% [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15.66%, and a net profit of about 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% [5]. - For the first quarter of 2025, Moutai achieved total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.56% [5]. - The company maintained growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, a 9.16% increase, and a net profit of 45.40 billion yuan, up 8.89% [5]. Strategic Transformation - The white liquor market is undergoing a significant transformation from a product-centric to a consumer-centric model, prompting Moutai to adapt its strategies accordingly [6][7]. - Moutai aims to enhance service quality and consumer engagement by focusing on consumer needs, optimizing service processes, and expanding market outreach [7]. - The company plans to increase investment in brand positioning and cultural experiences to provide consumers with a richer and more engaging service experience [7]. Investor Relations - Moutai has shown a commitment to enhancing investor relations, with plans for the controlling shareholder to increase its stake in the company by 3 to 3.3 billion yuan [8]. - The implementation of this share buyback plan is expected to stabilize investor expectations and positively influence the broader liquor sector [8]. Industry Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent leadership change reflects a stronger governmental oversight of Guizhou Moutai, which may impact the company's ability to navigate economic challenges [9]. - Recommendations for the new chairman include improving talent management, enhancing marketing strategies, and exploring international investment opportunities to strengthen Moutai's market position [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent leadership change at Kweichow Moutai, with the resignation of Zhang Deqin and the appointment of Chen Hua, reflects the company's strategic adjustments amid a challenging economic environment and highlights the transformation challenges faced by traditional liquor giants during a period of consumer change [2][7]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Zhang Deqin's departure after a brief tenure of one and a half years has raised concerns in the liquor industry and capital markets, indicating the strategic choices of Kweichow Moutai as a state-owned enterprise [2][7]. - Chen Hua, the new chairman, comes from a coal and energy background, leading to speculation about the future strategic direction of Moutai [2][5]. Group 2: Zhang Deqin's Tenure - Zhang Deqin's career at Moutai is characterized by a commitment to traditional craftsmanship and channel management, having risen from a grassroots brewing position to chairman [3][4]. - During his tenure, he implemented measures such as "controlling supply and stabilizing prices" and improved direct sales channels to 45%, which helped stabilize Moutai's market position [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Zhang's tenure coincided with significant challenges in the liquor industry, including policy adjustments, shifts in consumer structure, and intensified competition, leading to ongoing pressure on Moutai's stock price and product pricing [4][6]. - Despite achieving a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, both figures showed year-on-year growth of 9.16% and 8.89%, respectively, indicating resilience but also highlighting underlying issues [4]. Group 4: Chen Hua's Potential Impact - Chen Hua's cross-industry experience may bring new perspectives to Moutai, particularly in channel governance and brand rejuvenation, leveraging his background in energy management [5][6]. - The challenges facing Moutai under Chen's leadership include price declines, pressure on distributors, and the need for strategic integration with local economic development [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition from Zhang Deqin's stability to Chen Hua's potential innovation represents a critical moment for Moutai, as it seeks to maintain its market leadership while adapting to changing consumer demands and economic conditions [7]. - The leadership change poses both challenges and opportunities for Moutai, necessitating a balance between preserving brand value and exploring new growth avenues [7].