春节白酒讲透- 第 1 场酱酒重磅专家 权图 20260128 摘要 白酒行业受"金九令"影响加速调整，中高端消费场景消失，预计 2025 年为行业最困难时期，2026-2027 年或将见底，复苏取决于宏观 经济和大消费回暖。 白酒行业进入存量竞争，头部企业如茅台、五粮液、老窖和汾酒市场占 有率将提升，中小型企业空间受挤压。浓香型白酒进入头部品牌挤压期， 清香型白酒在大众消费市场有机会，酱香型白酒进入中长期盘整期，机 会集中于头部企业。 酱香型白酒受"金九银十"影响大，中高端产品受政务消费缺失冲击。 但需求端仍乐观，茅台带动作用显著，飞天茅台等开瓶率上升，头部企 业产能稳定，以价换量策略提高终端开瓶率。 茅台通过新品（如茅台 1,935）和降价策略稳住业绩，提高产品性价比， 增加终端开瓶率，消化渠道库存，预计未来仍将发挥龙头作用。扩产计 划放缓至每年 2000 吨，但未来几年仍有增量供应。 茅台近期经历人事变动、飞天茅台价格下滑和营销变革，价格回落至 1,499 元左右，重新掌握市场主导权，消除市场恐慌，加快产品动销， 优化渠道结构，通过"爱茅台"平台进行直销。 Q&A 当前白酒行业的调整情况如何，未来几年是 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Liquor Industry Industry Overview - The liquor industry, specifically the white liquor segment, experienced a year-on-year demand decline of 20-30% in Q3, but there was a significant improvement compared to Q2, primarily due to the recovery of business banquets and consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and summer holidays [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments - Business demand has been severely impacted by the macroeconomic environment and hotel restrictions, leading to a significant decline [3]. - The demand for mass-market white liquor priced between 100-300 RMB has remained relatively stable, indicating that the industry is currently in a state of rigid demand compression [3]. - Several white liquor companies, such as Gujinggong and Jinhui, have notably refrained from requiring downstream channels to meet repayment targets for the first time, which may result in reported performance being lower than actual demand, reflecting characteristics of the industry's cyclical bottom [4][5]. Brand Performance - Moutai has maintained a strong market position, with its flagship products, including the sauce-flavored product 1,935 and Feitian Moutai, substituting some competitive products [6]. - Fenjiu has gained recognition for its product structure and flavor advantages, showing relatively stable performance [6]. - Jinhui has managed to maintain stable performance during the downturn by increasing its market share and upgrading its products [6]. - Brands like Shede, Pearl, and Yanghe, which made adjustments earlier, are now in a recovery phase and are expected to achieve positive growth in the future [6]. Future Expectations - The white liquor market is expected to see good demand during the 2026 Spring Festival, with significant reductions in reporting pressure starting from Q2 [7]. - The overall industry performance is anticipated to be better than in 2025, and if the macroeconomic environment improves, leading companies will have greater flexibility [7]. - It is recommended to increase allocations to the white liquor sector, as a more pronounced improvement is expected in the coming year [7].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Consumer Sector - Clean Energy Sector - AI Application Sector - Alcoholic Beverage Sector - Home Appliance Sector - Food and Beverage Sector - Livestock Farming Sector Key Points and Arguments Consumer Sector - Market sentiment is cautious, but the decline in risk assets and VIX index is not extreme, indicating improved market response to negotiations and tariff adjustments [1][3] - Internal structural changes in the consumer sector are evident, with external demand affected by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and trade tensions, while internal demand benefits from policy expectations and price recovery [1][3] - Q4 2025 is expected to present opportunities for internal demand consumption driven by style and policy, with significant performance expected during the Double Eleven shopping festival [1][5] Clean Energy Sector - The clean energy sector, particularly companies like Stone Technology, is performing well and expanding into overseas markets, aiming to become platform companies [2][21] AI Application Sector - Companies like Yiwan Yichuang and Jihong Co. are leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and are expected to see significant growth, especially in non-U.S. markets [1][9] Alcoholic Beverage Sector - The white wine market saw a decline in sales during the recent holiday period, but banquet sales remained strong, indicating a shift in consumer price sensitivity [1][10][11] - The overall performance of the white wine sector is stable, with expectations for gradual recovery in sales as the market adjusts to pricing changes [1][14] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance industry is showing steady performance, with notable growth in the clean energy segment, particularly for companies like Stone Technology and Ecovacs [2][21] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with stable growth potential such as Stone Technology, Ecovacs, Midea, and Haier [22] Food and Beverage Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing mixed performance, with strong results from snack and soft drink leaders, while dining establishments face challenges [15] - Companies like Angel Yeast and Haitian Flavoring are expected to outperform due to strong competitive barriers and product optimization [15] Livestock Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is facing losses due to declining prices, with average prices around 14 RMB/kg and significant profit reductions expected [25] - Future price recovery is anticipated as production capacity is reduced, benefiting from policy stability regarding breeding sows [26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The consumer sector is expected to attract capital inflows, particularly in low-valuation, policy-aligned internal demand consumption areas such as food and beverage, agriculture, and retail [4] - The performance of the consumer sector is expected to be driven by companies with high certainty in earnings, particularly in the restaurant service sector [7] - The cost of operating restaurants is decreasing, leading to improved profitability and an expected increase in store openings by 20-30% [8] - The AI application sector is becoming increasingly important, with companies focusing on AI-driven efficiency improvements and market expansion [6][9]