来源：华夏酒报 然而，在经销商层面，反应则要复杂得多。茅台"新帅"此前释放的"取消分销"信号，令部分经销商感到被"背刺"。分销体系虽曾为茅台扩张立下汗马功 劳，但如今，部分经销商通过分销渠道低价窜货、扰乱价格体系，已成为厂家必须整顿的焦点。 "政策有利好，客户打听得多了，但价格越卖越低，公司也不敢批量压货。"烟台华新酒业区域经理安仲健道出了当下经销商的现实困境。 资深财经媒体人万春晖的分析更为尖锐："经销商现在手里的货不好卖，这是很现实的问题。厂家直销价格已经定了，经销商如果还想卖高价，是不可能 了。最大的问题是，以往经销商都是系列酒赔钱卖，飞天赚钱卖。如今，如果飞天都没办法卖，那些，系列酒怎么办？如果经销商都不玩了，茅台这么多 年实际上打造的金融属性就会消失。毕竟，真正喝茅台的人就那么多，喝酒的人也就那么多。" 资本市场同样呈现出分歧。2026年首个交易日，贵州茅台股价小幅收跌，反映出部分投资者的观望态度。不过，投资界中亦不乏乐观声音。知名财经博主 柯超以自身"连抢三日未果"为例，强调1499元飞天茅台依然"一瓶难求"，稀缺性并未改变，他认为，当前股价仍被低估，并公开表示准备增持。 对消费者而言，"i茅台" ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. has announced a temporary suspension of product supply to distributors and a significant structural reform aimed at alleviating financial pressure on distributors during the year-end period [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Measures - The company will immediately suspend the distribution of all Moutai products to distributors (with completed prepayments) until January 1, 2026, with a possibility of resuming before the Spring Festival depending on the situation [2][5]. - The purpose of this suspension is to reduce the financial burden on distributors and prevent panic selling due to loan repayments or new product payments during a financially tight year-end period [2][5]. Long-term Structural Reform - In 2026, Moutai plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products, which is a core aspect of the structural reform [2][5]. - Specific reductions include a 30% cut in quotas for Moutai 15-year and 1-liter Flying Moutai, a 50% cut for Zodiac Moutai, and a complete cessation of supply for the Color Glaze Rare Moutai [2][5]. Market Response - Following the announcement, the price of Flying Moutai has seen fluctuations, with a reported drop to 1560 RMB per bottle as of December 15, 2025, after briefly rising [6]. - The company has emphasized that its pricing strategy is primarily demand-driven and aims to protect channel resilience, with precise product allocation based on terminal sales performance [5][6]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is currently under pressure, with analysts noting that the market is entering a phase of "passive destocking," which may stabilize prices for mainstream liquor products after the holiday season [7].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped from a peak of 3500 yuan to 1399 yuan, marking a 57% decline over four years, indicating a market correction of the previously inflated prices driven by scarcity [3][4]. Group 1: Price Decline and Market Dynamics - The wholesale price of Moutai has reached a historical low of 1500 yuan, with some e-commerce platforms offering it at 1399 yuan, reflecting a drastic price drop compared to previous years [3]. - The decline in prices is attributed to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with increased direct sales and competition from e-commerce platforms disrupting the scarcity myth [3][4]. - The white liquor industry is facing a significant inventory issue, with total inventory across 20 listed companies reaching 176.69 billion yuan and inventory turnover days soaring to 1424 days [4][5]. Group 2: Demand Challenges - The demand for Moutai has been adversely affected by regulatory changes, with government consumption dropping from 40% to 0.8%, and a 15% decline in business banquet demand [4]. - The younger generation shows a declining interest in liquor, with only 8.7% of Gen Z consuming Moutai, as health concerns lead to reduced alcohol consumption [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite the price drop, Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 130.90 billion yuan, a slight increase of 6.33%, while net profit grew by 6.25% [5]. - However, cash flow from operating activities decreased by 14.01%, indicating increasing pressure on sales collections [5][6]. - Moutai's inventory value reached 55.86 billion yuan, up 15.83% year-on-year, raising concerns about turnover efficiency during a demand downturn [5][6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall white liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with 19 listed companies reporting a 5.84% decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [7]. - High-end liquor brands are particularly affected, with significant price drops and increased competition leading to a challenging market environment [7][8]. - The industry is shifting from a focus on "quantity and price increase" to "inventory reduction," with various strategies being employed to manage excess stock [8][9]. Group 5: Long-term Industry Changes - The decline in Moutai prices signifies a return to consumer-oriented pricing, moving away from speculative investment behaviors that dominated the market [9][10]. - The industry is expected to undergo a significant reshaping, with leading brands leveraging their financial strength and brand equity to consolidate market share [9][10]. - Future growth in the white liquor sector will likely focus on quality and brand culture rather than mere price elevation, as consumer preferences evolve [9][10].

白酒专题暨行业 2026 年年度策略：底部更加积极 20251214 摘要 飞天茅台批发价近期上涨至 1,580 元，主要受市场减量通知影响，虽非 官方发布，但已对现货市场产生显著影响，反映市场对供给侧变化的敏 感性。 白酒行业目前处于周期底部，营收、利润和现金回款均大幅下滑，为 2012-2015 年以来最大降幅。预计明年一季度下滑幅度收敛，随后逐 步进入平稳回升期，高端白酒价格或温和上涨。 白酒企业数量大幅减少，亏损比例创历史新高，经销商数量也首次出现 减少，投资意愿不足。行业整体库存下降，但头部企业去库存速度慢于 二三线企业。 白酒销量大幅下滑，已从高点下跌 70%。中国烈酒人均消费量低于世界 平均水平，反映饮酒习惯变化和消费场景减少。年轻人饮用比例下降也 对销量产生影响。 茅台产量增速保守，2026-2030 年可供销量增速仅为 1.45%。大众消 费占比提升，居民购买力处于历史最高水平，为茅台价格提供支撑。 Q&A 2026 年茅台的市场策略将会有哪些变化？ 茅台在 2026 年计划削减非标产品的市场配额，以维护市场价格和品牌价值。 同时，茅台将在各地区召开会议，强调弱化开门红和分销，更加市场化地进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends of Moutai liquor, highlighting a recovery in prices post "Double Eleven" sales, while also noting the ongoing normalization of promotional activities on e-commerce platforms [3][4]. Price Recovery of Moutai - After the "Double Eleven" sales, the price of 53-degree 500ml Moutai has increased, with online prices on platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo rising to 1670 yuan per bottle, up by 30 yuan from previous days and nearly 80 yuan from the lowest during the sales [5][6]. - Offline, the retail price of Moutai is around 1700 yuan per bottle across various regions, with some authorized stores charging slightly more. The market demand remains stable, and price adjustments are primarily market-driven [5][6]. Profit Margins and Market Dynamics - Despite the price recovery, profit margins for various stakeholders in the Moutai supply chain are shrinking. Current buyback prices for Moutai are around 1600 yuan per bottle, with minimal profit margins for resellers [9]. - The article notes that the e-commerce price pressures are affecting offline sales channels, leading to a complex pricing environment [9]. E-commerce Trends - E-commerce promotions for Moutai have become a regular occurrence, with prices on some platforms remaining lower than offline wholesale prices even after the "Double Eleven" event [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the low pricing strategies on e-commerce platforms are part of a broader inventory management strategy rather than a sustainable market trend [10]. Industry Shifts - The article indicates a shift in the white liquor industry from a high-volume growth model to a focus on quality and consumer attributes, necessitating adjustments from both liquor companies and e-commerce platforms [10]. - The increasing reliance on e-commerce for sales is evident, with some companies reporting that online sales have grown from 10% to 40% of their revenue, indicating a significant trend towards digital sales channels [10].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has significantly dropped during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, with prices reaching as low as 1499 yuan per bottle, indicating a major shift in the high-end liquor market and consumer behavior [2][4][12]. Price Trends - In 2024, the price of Feitian Moutai was around 2000 yuan, but by 2025, it fell to 1499 yuan due to aggressive discounting strategies by e-commerce platforms [2][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai on various platforms during the 2025 Double Eleven included 1640 yuan on Taobao, 1664.9 yuan on JD, and 1499 yuan on Pinduoduo, with some reports of prices as low as 1399 yuan [3][6][10]. Market Dynamics - The prolonged promotional period leading up to Double Eleven has resulted in a continuous decline in prices, with reports of daily price changes and significant drops in wholesale prices [4][5][8]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has been on a downward trend for over a year and a half, with a notable decline starting in April 2024, influenced by various market factors including increased supply and changing consumer preferences [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - The perception of Moutai as a luxury item has diminished, with consumers expressing dissatisfaction over the price drops, indicating a shift in the market dynamics and consumer sentiment [4][11]. - Younger consumers are moving away from traditional drinking cultures, impacting the demand for high-end liquors like Moutai [11][15]. Industry Impact - The decline in Moutai prices is reflective of broader challenges in the liquor industry, with other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experiencing significant price drops [13][14]. - The traditional inventory management practices in the liquor industry, characterized by "stock pressure-control price-repressure," are being challenged as prices continue to fall, leading to potential long-term implications for the market [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has experienced a significant decline, with prices dropping below 2000 yuan during the 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival, marking a dramatic shift in consumer sentiment and market dynamics [1][20]. Price Trends - During the 2024 "Double 11," Feitian Moutai was priced at approximately 2036 yuan on Taobao, 2061 yuan on Pinduoduo, and 2499 yuan on JD [1][18]. - In 2025, prices fell further, with Taobao listing it at 1640 yuan, Pinduoduo at 1499 yuan, and JD at 1664.9 yuan [2][7]. - The price of loose Feitian Moutai continued to decline, reaching 1590 yuan on Pinduoduo and 1499 yuan during promotional events [7][12]. Market Dynamics - The prolonged promotional period leading up to "Double 11" has resulted in a continuous price drop, with prices fluctuating daily [6][17]. - The price drop is attributed to various factors, including increased supply, changes in consumer behavior, and aggressive discounting strategies by e-commerce platforms [24][41]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumers have expressed mixed feelings, with some stating that the "Moutai myth" has fallen as prices drop significantly [2][12]. - The decline in prices has led to a shift in purchasing behavior, with consumers focusing more on value rather than brand prestige [24][41]. Industry Impact - The price decline of Feitian Moutai is part of a broader trend affecting the high-end liquor market, with other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 also experiencing significant price drops [25][30]. - The industry is facing deep adjustments, with traditional sales strategies being challenged by changing consumer preferences and economic conditions [24][41].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 310.28 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards high quality, functional, and health-oriented products, with leading companies focusing on stable operations and high-quality development [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry's revenue and profit growth rates are categorized as national famous liquor > real estate liquor > sub-high-end liquor [1] - The demand for liquor remains weak, compounded by new regulations affecting both supply and demand, leading to significant adjustments in the market [1] - The report anticipates a continuation of weak recovery and strong differentiation in the industry, with growth increasingly reliant on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [1] Future Outlook - CICC forecasts that the liquor industry will see improvements in 2026, with demand expected to recover gradually as policy impacts diminish and consumption scenarios stabilize [2] - The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brand power and innovative products will benefit the most from the anticipated recovery [2] - Guangfa Securities notes that the performance disparity among liquor companies has increased, with strong brands showing resilience amid ongoing pressure [2] Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated 370 million yuan in returns and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [3] - The introduction of "Dazhen" is expected to enhance Zhenjiu Lidu's growth trajectory by positioning it alongside its existing product lines, Zhen 15 and Zhen 30, focusing on high quality and price competitiveness [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 310.28 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The industry is characterized by a trend of weak recovery and strong differentiation, with growth increasingly dependent on product innovation and channel expansion [1][2] Industry Overview - The consumption environment remains weak, with a focus on high quality-price ratios, functionality, health, and emotional consumption trends [1] - Major leading companies are concentrating on stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns and operational quality [1] - The demand for liquor continues to show weak performance, compounded by new regulations affecting both supply and demand [1] Future Outlook - According to research, the liquor industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in 2026, with demand likely to recover as policy impacts diminish [2] - The first half of 2026 may witness a sequential recovery, particularly benefiting leading liquor companies with strong fundamentals [2] - The differentiation among liquor companies is increasing, with strong brand power allowing leading firms to demonstrate resilience [2] Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated 370 million yuan in returns and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants [3] - The new product aims to position itself alongside existing series, potentially creating a third growth curve for the company [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, marked by a battle for inventory reduction and financial pressure, with major companies reporting substantial declines in revenue and profit [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 20 A-share liquor companies reported a total revenue of 320.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, and a net profit of 122.77 billion yuan, down 6.76% [2]. - Only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu managed to maintain growth, while the remaining 18 companies experienced declines [3]. Quarterly Performance - The third quarter of 2025 was particularly harsh, with companies like Shui Jing Fang and Guo Jiao reporting revenue drops of 58.91% and 51.65% respectively [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai also faced significant profit declines, with Moutai's revenue growth slowing to 0.56% in Q3, a stark contrast to previous quarters [6][7]. Historical Context - This marks the first major performance decline in five years for the liquor industry, with the number of companies experiencing revenue drops increasing from 2 in 2021 to 7 in 2024 [5]. - The trend of declining profits is evident, with 90% of liquor companies reporting a year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. Inventory Crisis - The industry is facing a severe inventory crisis, with total inventory for 20 listed liquor companies reaching 176.69 billion yuan by Q3 2025, an increase of 11% year-on-year [14]. - Companies like Kweichow Moutai hold the largest inventory, nearing 56 billion yuan, while others like Yanghe and Wuliangye also report significant inventory levels [14]. Financial Strain - The financial strain is evident as companies reduce their contract liabilities significantly, with Kweichow Moutai's contract liabilities dropping by 19% to 7.75 billion yuan [17]. - Many smaller liquor companies are facing survival challenges, with some unable to cover their interest-bearing debts [20]. Market Dynamics - The price reduction of Moutai has diminished the price advantage of Wuliangye, leading to a rapid decline in its performance [8]. - Shanxi Fenjiu, despite revenue growth, saw its net profit decline for the first time since 2015, indicating market saturation challenges [9]. Sales Strategies - Companies are increasingly resorting to credit sales to manage inventory, with Kweichow Moutai leading this shift by relaxing its cash payment policies [19]. - The overall market is expected to face prolonged challenges as inventory digestion may take several years due to the current oversupply situation [15].