1月22日，泰国曼谷凤凰国际食品城内，"解码中国美酒，共创东盟未来"——"中国美酒嘉年华"正式启 幕。展厅内，各大名酒展位前吸引着来自东南亚的采购商与业内人士驻足品鉴、洽谈合作；场内，"一 对一贸易配对会"高效推进，为中国白酒开拓东盟市场、构建渠道网络注入了新动力。 底部已现：弱复苏初显，信心边际修复 这一活跃的出海图景，与国内白酒市场"旺季不旺"的现状形成了鲜明对比。进入2026年以来，多家券商 与行业媒体在年终复盘中，为2025年的中国白酒产业定下"深度调整"的基调。数据也印证了这一判断： 2025年酒类消费价格指数同比下降1.9%，行业平均库存周转天数高达900天，酒企普遍增长乏力。 早在2025年11月底，东兴证券食品饮料行业首席分析师孟斯硕就在接受媒体采访时分析指出："本轮周 期我们认为已经是底部了。"其判断基于三方面观察： 随着宏观经济政策效应逐步释放，新一年的白酒行业是否已走出至暗时刻？《华夏酒报》记者近期采访 时发现，围绕这一核心议题，目前业界形成了两种判断逻辑：一部分机构与企业认为，"最差的时期已 经过去"；但更多业内人士则指出，行业仍面临严峻的结构性挑战。 这一判断在部分企业层面得到呼应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is showing signs of recovery in 2026, particularly in the high-end and mid-range segments, driven by gifting and banquet demands during the New Year holiday season [1][4][8] Group 1: Market Trends - High-end liquor products, such as Wuliangye and Moutai, are prominently featured in supermarkets and liquor stores, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4][6] - The price range of 300-500 RMB for mid-range products has become a sales powerhouse during the New Year, reflecting a dual demand from gifting and banquet markets [1][6] - Online channels are also witnessing strong sales of high-end liquor, with significant sales figures reported during live-streaming events [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The liquor market is experiencing a transformation in consumer behavior, with a shift from excessive packaging to more rational consumption patterns [8] - The banquet market remains crucial for liquor sales, with a significant portion of consumption still tied to traditional gifting and business events [9] - The dual recovery in the market reflects both consumer rationality and the maturation of the market, with high-end products stabilizing and mid-range products gaining traction [8][10] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The liquor industry is expected to face a new normal characterized by rational consumption, channel flattening, and intensified competition [10] - Companies need to focus on niche markets and immediate retail channels to capture growth opportunities [10] - The instant retail market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 720 billion RMB by 2025, indicating a competitive landscape for liquor companies [11]