作者 | 周智宇 至于境外债方面，万科在2027年之前也无境外公开债到期。因此，接下来万科主要要解决的就是境内债 务问题。 市场传闻进一步放大了乐观情绪。 政策面的积极信号则为板块提供了底层支撑。近期房贷贴息政策讨论升温，南京、武汉等城市已落地相 关措施，华泰证券研报指出，这一政策可精准降低购房成本，带动刚需释放。 同时，多地"因城施策"加码购房补贴，南宁对多孩家庭最高补贴6万元，常州购房资助可达20万元，政 策组合拳预期逐步升温。 万科债务重组也正进入关键窗口期。除20亿元中票外，37亿元"22万科MTN005"也将于12月22日召开展 期会议，两笔债券合计57亿元，是其年末最紧迫的偿债压力来源。 万科当前有息负债超3600亿元，一年内到期债务超1500亿元，现金短债比仅0.48，2026年仍有超百亿元 境内债到期。 编辑 | 张晓玲 12月10日午后，地产板块迎来强势异动，万科A突然直线拉升封死涨停，报5.25元，封单超27亿元，成 交额达32.29亿元，华夏幸福等多股同步涨停，保利、金地跟涨；港股万科企业最高涨幅超18.56%，最 终收涨13.17%。 同步走强的还有万科境内债，"21万科06"涨超42 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingzheng International maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (00916), highlighting revenue growth in Q3 2025 but a decline in net profit due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and high base effects from last year's disposal of thermal power assets [1] Performance Summary - In the first three quarters, Longyuan Power achieved operating revenue of 22.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.02%. Operating cash flow increased significantly by 53.33% to 15.784 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 6.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, and net profit of 1.018 billion yuan, down 38.19%. The gross margin for Q3 was 34.91%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year but down 4.09 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The investment income for Q3 was -11 million yuan, compared to 514 million yuan in the same period last year due to the disposal of thermal power assets [1] Operational Data - In the first three quarters, the wind power utilization hours were 1511 hours, a decrease of 95 hours year-on-year. The newly installed wind and solar capacity was 1.13 million kW and 1.17 million kW, respectively, with a slowdown in growth [2] - The total electricity generation was 56.547 billion kWh, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of thermal power asset disposal, wind power generation increased by 5.30%, and solar power generation surged by 77.98% [2] - For Q3, wind power generation increased by 3.33% year-on-year, while solar power generation saw an impressive increase of 88.61% [2] Profit Forecast - Short-term performance is under pressure due to fluctuations in green electricity prices and high base effects from last year's thermal power asset disposal. However, the company’s offshore wind and large-scale projects are expected to support long-term growth [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.690 billion yuan, 6.130 billion yuan, and 6.592 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -11.4%, +7.7%, and +7.5%, respectively [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for the Hong Kong stock market as of November 18 are projected at 9.5x, 8.8x, and 8.2x for the respective years [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a slight decline in revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, but profitability is improving, particularly in the cement and fiberglass sectors [1] Cement Industry - The 12 listed cement companies achieved revenue of 261.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.64% [2] - Despite entering the peak demand season in Q4, cement demand is expected to see only a slight increase due to market funding shortages [2] - The industry is anticipated to enhance self-discipline and staggered production efforts to raise prices and improve profitability [2] - Long-term supply-side reforms are expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the cement industry [2] - Key stocks to watch include Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [2] Glass Industry - The glass industry saw a revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with 12 listed companies reporting revenue of 88.52 billion yuan, down 2.92%, and net profit of 7.69 billion yuan, down 9.65% [3] - In Q3 2025, the glass industry showed signs of improvement, with revenue of 31.69 billion yuan, up 10.31%, and net profit of 2.27 billion yuan, up 50.06% [3] - Float glass demand remained weak, with prices declining; however, Q4 is expected to be a traditional peak season [3] - The photovoltaic glass market experienced stable fluctuations, with supply-demand factors influencing prices; the industry is expected to maintain price stability in Q4 [3] - Key stocks to monitor include Qibin Group for float glass and Fuyao Glass for photovoltaic glass [3] Fiberglass Industry - The five listed fiberglass companies reported revenue of 40.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.22%, and net profit of 4.46 billion yuan, up 81.25% [4] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to rising fiberglass prices, with an average gross margin of 25.09%, up 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Continued demand for high-end fiberglass is expected to further enhance industry profitability [4] - Key stocks to focus on include China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and Honghe Technology [4] Consumer Building Materials Industry - The four tracked waterproofing companies reported revenue of 47.03 billion yuan, down 4.05%, and net profit of 3.44 billion yuan, down 23.78% [5] - The six tracked pipe industry companies achieved revenue of 12.75 billion yuan, down 6.16%, and net profit of 0.45 billion yuan, down 50.63% [5] - The seven tracked other major consumer building materials companies reported revenue of 29.64 billion yuan, down 8.93%, but net profit increased by 12.40% to 1.37 billion yuan [5] - Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and easing restrictions are expected to gradually alleviate inventory pressure and improve industry fundamentals [5] - Key stocks to watch include Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple brokerages express optimism about the securities industry in 2026, highlighting growth opportunities in wealth management, investment banking, internationalization, and technology empowerment [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market transaction volume is expected to remain high in 2026, with reduced commission and fee pressures benefiting traditional brokerage revenue [1] - Strong new account openings in A-shares and margin trading lead to record-high financing balances, indicating a bullish trend in wealth management [1] Group 2: Business Segments - Retail and international businesses are anticipated to be new highlights in the industry, contributing to overall growth [1] - The securities industry's net asset return is projected to improve in 2026, suggesting potential for valuation recovery alongside structural opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector shows signs of demand recovery, with market expectations for performance and pricing becoming more optimistic, leading to potential valuation improvements as demand enhances [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 4018.86 points, up 0.06%, while the liquor sector closed at 2260.38 points, up 0.39% [1] - Guizhou Moutai's stock price closed at 1429.61 CNY per share, down 0.16%; Wuliangye closed at 118.95 CNY, up 0.10%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 190.21 CNY, up 1.95%; Luzhou Laojiao closed at 131.06 CNY [1] - Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are key players in the sector, with their stock performance reflecting broader market trends [1] Company Summary - According to Guosen Securities, the industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly noted during the recent holiday sales [1] - The market is sensitive to policy expectations and liquidity improvements, with valuations likely to recover alongside demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a continued demand decline, with specific challenges in the cement sector, despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing the market [2][3]. Cement Industry - In September, the national average cement shipment rate showed a slight month-on-month increase but a nearly 4 percentage point year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing demand shrinkage [1][3]. - The average cement price in September 2025 is reported at 346.77 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.43 yuan/ton increase from June, yet the overall demand remains weak [1][3]. - Factors contributing to the weak demand include investment declines and project funding shortages, which hinder construction progress, alongside frequent rainfall affecting operations [3]. Glass Industry - The float glass market is expected to transition into a fluctuating trend after recent price increases, with some year-end demand but overall supply pressure remaining [4]. - The anticipated daily production is expected to maintain above 160,000 tons, but demand is primarily driven by essential purchases due to funding and payment issues [4]. - Key companies to watch in the glass sector include Qibin Group and Jinjing Technology [4]. Fiberglass Industry - A price adjustment announcement from Shandong Fiberglass indicates a 5%-10% increase in prices for certain fiberglass products, signaling a potential recovery in the industry [5]. - The China Fiberglass Industry Association has initiated a joint effort to establish a fair competitive environment, which may enhance profitability across the sector [5]. - Notable companies in this space include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology [5]. Consumer Building Materials - Continuous real estate policy implementations are expected to drive industry valuation recovery and fundamental improvements, with recommended companies including Weixing New Materials and Beixin Building Materials [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gaming sector shows resilience, with significant growth opportunities in both PC and mobile games, driven by high-frequency content updates and AI applications [1] Group 1: Gaming Sector Performance - The gaming ETF (516010) rose over 1.3% on October 21, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Major products like "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Action" are enhancing revenue stability through frequent content updates [1] - The gaming index (930901) tracks companies involved in game development, animation production, and related sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gaming sector [1] Group 2: AI Applications and Innovations - Manus 1.5 version upgrade enhances native AI web app capabilities, indicating advancements in AI technology [1] - The voice model from Volcano Engine has achieved a 90% accuracy rate in educational scenarios, promoting AI integration in e-commerce, marketing, and gaming [1] Group 3: Industry Expansion and Investment - The潮玩 industry is rapidly expanding, with over 5,400 brands and 2,600 global IPs showcased at the CTE exhibition [1] - Yuewen has established a 100 million yuan fund to enter the comic and drama sector, reflecting ongoing investment in innovative content forms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported excellent performance in the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations with a revenue of 4.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.932 billion yuan, up 65.76% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company's wealth management and self-operated businesses performed well, with investment banking showing signs of recovery. The proportion of heavy asset business rose to 62.1% in the first half of 2025 [2] - Wealth management strengthened its advisory layout and transformation, with brokerage business net income reaching 1.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. The company opened 309,100 new accounts, up 148% year-on-year [2] - The investment banking business demonstrated resilience, with net income of 419 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The company ranked eighth in the industry for IPO applications and second for projects submitted to the Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The self-operated business remained stable, with total investment income of 2.634 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%. Alternative investments showed improvement, although some areas experienced losses [2] - Asset management business saw revenue growth driven by optimized scale structure, with net income of 171 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19% [2] Group 2: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The influx of incremental funds into the market suggests potential for industry valuation recovery. The company's brokerage and self-operated investments contribute significantly to profit elasticity, supported by a favorable regional advantage and strong growth potential [3] - The company is expected to have a net asset value per share of 9.67 yuan and 10.64 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Given the market recovery, the company is projected to have strong performance elasticity [3] - A valuation of 1.3 times the price-to-book ratio is suggested for 2025, corresponding to a reasonable value of 12.57 yuan per share, with a "buy" rating recommended for the company [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on August 29, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index rising over 1.6%, led by stocks such as Bluestar Technology, Juhua Co., and New Fengming [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's upward trend, increasing by more than 1.8%, outperforming similar products [1] - China Galaxy Securities noted that while capital expenditure and the growth rate of new capacity in the chemical industry have slowed in recent years, existing and under-construction capacity will still require time to digest [1] Group 2 - Demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year as the effects of policy stimulus gradually become apparent and the recovery momentum in terminal industries improves, indicating potential for domestic demand to be fully released [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of refining and trading (28.79%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemicals (19.45%) [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure and construction capacity growth, but existing and under-construction capacities will take time to digest. Demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year due to policy stimulus and recovery in terminal industries, indicating potential for domestic demand to be fully released [1] Group 1: Supply Side - Capital expenditure and construction capacity growth in the chemical industry have been slowing down in recent years [1] - Existing and under-construction capacities will require time for digestion [1] Group 2: Demand Side - The second half of the year is anticipated to show improved demand as the effects of policy stimulus become evident [1] - Recovery momentum in terminal industries is expected to gradually strengthen [1] - There is potential for domestic demand to be fully released [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights three investment themes for the second half of the year: 1. Focus on domestic demand to capture growth certainty opportunities [1] 2. Pay attention to supply-side constraints to explore cyclical elasticity opportunities [1] 3. Empower new productive forces, with an acceleration in domestic substitution of new materials [1]